Monday, November 08, 2004

Trade Time

The Royals have traded Darrell May for Dennis Tankersley. That's how I see it. And here's my breakdown and opinion of the trade.

May's ERA will drop in Petco Park, but he's a replacement level lefty swingman who will do well there because of his tendency to give up gopherballs that will die in the vast San Diego outfield. He's overpaid, but the Pads are only one the hook for 2005 at a little over $3 million.

Ryan Bukvich is a generic reliever prospect. He's filler in the deal, but you never know exactly what you're going to get with relievers.

Terrence Long is a 4th outfielder who also happens to be one of Bill Beane's worst mistakes. Giving Long a 4 year, $11 million deal was ill advised. Long has well known strengths and weaknesses. He's a competent hitter vs RHP, but worthless against LHP. The Padres noticed that and gave him 250 at bats against righties, but only 39 against lefties. He's also a pretty good defensive corner outfielder, but overmatched in center. This also happens to be Aaron Guiel's strengths and weaknesses. His acquisition is a good one as long as the Royals don't insist on letting play every day. If they carry over San Diego's usage pattern, they'll be better for it.

Long is owed approximately 3 mil for 2005, and is in the last year of his deal, just like May. So unless there's some cash changing hands, this deal is monetarily neutral.

The last player mentioned is the one I'm most enthusiastic about. Dennis Tankersley was a hot prospect a couple years ago, but has bounced back and forth between AAA and San Diego. This season, he racked up 120 innings in Portland, and produced a 3.15 ERA with 86 strikeouts, 37 walks, and 114 hits allowed. Not bad. He's struggled in the majors though, as he has lost his command in almost every major league audition he's had. If he can straighten that out, he's a much better pitcher than May, and certainly more of an asset than Bukvich. The Padres got frustrated with him and tossed him out on the curb. The Royals got free talent as far as I'm concerned. I like this trade even if Tankersley doesn't work out.

Update: Better information from MLB.com

It looks like my 2005 salary information was off. May gets 3.225 million in 2005 and Long makes 4.7, however the Padres are chipping in the difference, or close to it, so the implications remain the same.



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