Tuesday, April 05, 2005

Predictions

With the start of the season, I asked some friends of TYBITF to make some predictions.



Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing, reprinted.

AL East:
Boston
New York
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay

AL Central:
Minnesota
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Kansas City

AL West:
Oakland
"Los Angeles"
Seattle
Texas

NL East:
Philly
New York
Atlanta
Florida *I already regret this
Washington

NL Central:
St. Louis
Chicago
Houston
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Cincinnati

NL West:
San Diego
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Arizona
Colorado

AL Playoffs:
Boston Over Minnesota
Oakland Over NYY
Boston Over Oakland

NLDS:
St. Louis Over Philly
Chicago Over San Diego
Chicago Over St. Louis

World Series:
Boston Over Chicago

AL MVP:
Johan Santana

NL MVP:
Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:
Johan Santana

NL Cy Young:
Ben Sheets

AL ROY:
Jeremy Reed

NL ROY:
Jeff Francis

Minor League Player of the Year:
Ian Stewart




Brad Dowdy of No Pepper

AL East
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees*
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
 
AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
 
AL West
Anaheim Angels
Oakland A's
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
 
NL East
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins*
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
 
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
 
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies

AL Playoffs
Boston over Minnesota
Anaheim over New York
Boston over Anaheim
 
NL Playoffs
Atlanta over Los Angeles
St. Louis over Florida
Atlanta over St. Louis

World Series
Atlanta over Boston, 4-3
 
AL MVP
Manny Ramirez

AL Cy Young
Randy Johnson

AL ROY
Jeremy Reed

NL MVP
Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young
Pedro Martinez

NL ROY
Anthony Reyes

Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Chad Billingsley

Minor League Hitter of the Year
Delmon Young 




Ryan Richards of the Indians Compendium

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL East
Boston
New York (WC)
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay

Ho hum. I threw in a bit of a twist, giving the Red Sox the division,
but both Boston and New York make the playoffs.

AL Central
Minnesota
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Kansas City

The Twins have too much pitching for the other teams to overcome.

AL West
Los Angeles
Texas
Oakland
Seattle

Texas didn't really build on their 2004 success with any meaningful
acquisitions beyond Richard Hidalgo, and if you take into account the
park effects of TBiA, didn't have a very good offense to begin with.
The Angels might run away with this division.


AL MVP
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Miguel Tejada.

AL CY YOUNG
Roy Halladay - yep, another limb.

AL ROY
Jeremy Reed

AL MOY
Mike Scioscia

NL East
Atlanta
Florida
Philadelphia
New York
Washington

I had a tough time picking 1-4 in this division. The Braves look like
the most well-rounded team, and how can you pick against them given
their history? The combination of Carlos Delgado, Miguel Cabrera, and
their rotation should keep the Marlins in contention for the Wild
Card, but the tougher schedule will hurt them.

NL Central
St. Louis
Chicago (WC)
Cincinnati
Houston
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh

As far as I'm concerned, this is a two-team race, contingent on the
health of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. The Astros offense took a huge
hit in the offseason, plus they won't have Lance Berkman for a while.
Will this be the year Ken Griffey Junior stays healthy? I'll say no,
but the Reds offense will still be potent, with Pena and Kearns
improving from a year ago.

NL West
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco
Arizona
Colorado

I'm going with the Dodgers almost by default. If I knew Barry Bonds
was completely healthy, I'd probably pick the Giants. The Rockies on
paper look like the worst team in baseball.

AL PLAYOFFS:
Boston over Minnesota
New York over Los Angeles
New York over Boston


NL PLAYOFFS:
Atlanta over Chicago
St. Louis over Los Angeles
St. Louis over Atlanta

WORLD SERIES
St. Louis over New York in 6

NL MVP
Albert Pujols. It's finally his year.

NL CY YOUNG
Pedro Martinez

NL ROY
Gavin Floyd

NL MOY
Jim Tracy

MINOR LEAGUE POY
Delmon Young



Dyehardfan from RoyalRevival

AL EAST
Boston
NY*
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay

AL CENTRAL
Minnesota
Cleveland
Chicago
Detroit
Kansas City

AL WEST
Oakland
Anaheim
Texas
Seattle

NL EAST
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
New York
Washington

NL CENTRAL
St. Louis
Chicago*
Houston
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Cincinnati

NL WEST
LA
San Diego
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado

World Series
Twins Over Cubs

AL MVP
Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young
Johan Santana

AL ROY
Ruben Gotay

NL MVP
Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young
Tim Hudson

NL ROY
Garrett Atkins

Random comments:

Hudson + Mazzone = lock
The Nationals are better than a 68 win team… just not in that division.

The Cardinals will simply outscore everyone on the way to another division title

The NL West race may not be that close.. The Giants are projected for half a season of Barry.

I wanted to pick Morneau for MVP.

The White Sox may lose 100 games.. that’s how much I hate what they’ve done to their offense.

Seattle would win 85+ games if they played in the Central.

Texas is a maverick team.. but their pitching was both bad and lucky last year so I don’t see any real improvement.

Oakland will have a disaster of a first half, only to rise up and steal the division away from the Los Angeles Angels of whatever.

Atkins is a pretty weak pick for NL ROY, but I don’t see Francis putting up pretty numbers.. It will be a Rockie most likely.



My Picks

AL East
Boston
New York
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa

The Yankees are a troubling team. They have a great core, but quite a bit of it is aging fast and as the Diamondbacks and Orioles have proven in the past, the bottom tends to fall out of old teams far faster than the general public expects. If anybody from the Posada, Jeter, Sheffield group gets hurt for an extended period of time, their offense starts looking pretty ordinary. Bernie Williams is decaying before our eyes. Their defense is one of the 5 worst in baseball. And their bench is embarrassing. And I haven't even touched tea fact that this so-called juggernaut is honestly going to give Tino Martinez and Tony Womack 600+ plate appearances. And despite what the Baseball Tonight goons said last week, their pitching staff is not the best in a long time. It is instead a truly great, but old #1 starter, a merely good Mike Mussina, an old, fragile Kevin Brown, a slightly above average, overpaid Carl Pavano, and the ticking time-bomb known as Jaret Wright. The odds against Wright being a Yankee at this time next year have to be about the same as the chances of my being hired as the new PR director in the Bronx, which after this paragraph will be surely nil. The only scenario I can envision where he's on next year's roster is if they can't find a team to dump him on. It isn't like he has Javier Vazquez's track record of competence. Once you get past last year's flukey, Mazzone-inspired run, it's a whole lot of ugly.

AL Central
Minnesota
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
KC

Minnesota improved its team in the offseason by letting Guzman and Koskie go. Bartlett is a better player than Guzman at a fraction of the price. And while Koskie is a much better defensive third baseman than Cuddyer, he's also fragile and doesn't carry the offensive upside that Cuddyer does. The Twins also have nice bullpen, the best pitcher in baseball, and stealth MVP candidate Justin Morneau.

The more I look at the Tigers team, the more I like it. The opposite is true of the White Sox. And I think that my Royals will improve from last year if for no other reason than because the little moves I've liked should all add up. Don't get me wrong, there's still a long way to go, but last year's outfield was an abomination, the pitching staff was a huge mess, and they played Ken Harvey and Desi Relaford far too much. I like players like DeJesus, Gotay, and Buck. None of them are stars, but they won't be liabilities, and that's enough for a small boost. Look for around 70-75 wins.

AL West
Oakland
Anaheim
Texas
Seattle

I think Oakland will surprise a lot of mainstream fans and journalists. Their starting staff won't be as strong as it has been, but it will exceed expectations, and the improved offense and bullpen will counteract the gap between the 2004 and 2005 rotations. Also, barely anybody noticed that Oakland has put together possibly the best defensive squad in baseball.

I'm not calling the Angels LA-A or anything like that. I'm holding out.

NL East
Atlanta
Philly*
Florida
New York
Washington

Is there a more interesting race this year? If there is, I can't find it. There are certainly no knock-out teams that look like they can win 100 and take the pennant by storm, but there are 4 competent teams with strengths and weaknesses. The Cards are clearly the best team in the NL, but these guys run second through fifth. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished exactly the opposite of what I predict here.

NL Central
St Louis
Chicago
Milwaukee
Houston
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

The Cards are followed by a whole lot of mediocre. I'm picking the Cubs second, but if things in their rotation break the wrong way, they could slide down to the middle of this group. It will take a breakthrough from Corey Patterson and good health in the rotation to give the NL East foursome a real race for the wild card.

Milwaukee could surprise with an improved lineup and rotation with some potential. If they bring up Prince Fielder at midseason, it could get really, really interesting. I thought the missed out on an opportunity to capitalize on Lyle Overbay's career year by not trading him and filling the spot temporarily. There would have been some puzzled look in some corners, but Fielder is coming on fast, and nobody is under the delusion that this team is competing for a playoff spot this year. It keeps you from having to sort out a real logjam and it puts you in a position to sell high.

NL West
LA
San Diego
Arizona
San Fran
Colorado

This is an ugly division IMO. The Padres and Dodgers have some nice players, but I'm not in love with either team. The Giants without Barry Bonds are the Washington Nationals with more gray hair. The Snakes improved their team in the short term, but tied themselves to long term albatross deals in the all encompassing goal of getting to 75 wins. That doesn't exactly make my heart beat any faster. I will say though, that Jose Cruz was a great pickup and is horribly underrated. The Rockies are just marking time until Ian Stewart comes to town.

AL Playoffs
Minnesota Over Oakland
Boston Over Anaheim
Boston Over Minnesota

NL Playoffs
Atlanta Over LA
St Louis Over Philly
St Louis over Atlanta

World Series
Boston Over St Louis

AL MVP
Eric Chavez

AL Cy Young
Johan Santana

AL ROY
Jeremy Reed

NL MVP
Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young
Jake Peavy

NL ROY
J.J. Hardy

Minor League Player of the Year
Daric Barton

Game on!



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