'Til You're Blue in the Face

On Kahrl and Victor

2005-10-25T15:50:00.000-05:00

Last week Christina Kahrl (who I'm a huge fan of) got a couple of questions about the Mets first baseman or lack thereof in a chat she did on BP. She indicated that she thinks the Mets should give Victor Diaz the job. I like Diaz. I was a proponent of him as Major Leaguer before the season and I still am. However, I think she's giving his bat more credit than it deserves. He's got a very good bat for a second baseman, but he'd be overmatched as an everyday corner infielder.

On the season he hit .257/.329/.468 in the Show. That would make him a pretty subpar first baseman. However, it would make him an excellent 4th outfielder/pinch hitter. The presence of Mike Cameron in right field (should he be able to recover fully from his facial surgery) means that the Mets are one of the few teams that don't need anybody who can cover center field on the bench. They can just slide Cameron over into Beltran's spot and insert their backup into right field. Diaz is pretty bad in the outfield and could not cut it as a center fielder, but he isn't going to embarrass himself on a corner.

Another thing to mention is the fact that the Mets are one of the teams that most need a 4th outfielder who can hit. Cliff Floyd played in 150 games in 2005, but his career record tells you that's not likely for the foreseeable future. He's injury prone and always have been. Now he's entering his mid 30's, when that kind of thing is likely to become worse. The Mets need a backup plan for him, and that means they need to keep Diaz free to be that backup plan.

So just as long as they don't overpay and do something stupid like taking on the majority of Jim Thome's contract, give an overpriced, long term contract to Lyle Overbay, or give away Lastings Milledge or Yusemiero Petit, they should go out and get a real first baseman. A player like Overbay would be a big upgrade on what they got from the position last year. Diaz is fine as an outfield reserve and primary pinch hitter, but he's overmatched as a regular first baseman.

John Danks Report

2005-10-07T11:57:00.000-05:00

John Danks, LHP, Texas Rangers
Drafted 9th Overall, 2003 Draft, HS, Round Rock, TX
Bats L/Throws L
20 YO, 6'2", 190 lbs

What took me so long to get to Danks? You would have figured with the number of Rangers fans I tend to surround myself with (we Royals fans need someone around who can share our pain) that I would have profiled this high profile prospect a long time ago. Well, here it is.

Danks gets into the low 90's. He could even add a couple MPH onto that in the next couple of years. However his breaking stuff is probably what gives him his upside potential. He has a killer curveball and the makings of a quality changeup.

2005 Bakersfield: 2.50 ERA, 53 K, 16 BB, 50 H, 5 HR, 58 IP
2005 Frisco: 5.49 ERA, 85 K, 34 BB, 117 H, 12 HR, 98 IP
2005 Totals: 4.38 ERA, 138 K, 50 BB, 167 H, 17 HR, 156 IP
MiLB Career: 4.19 ERA, 285 K, 101 BB, 285 H, 26 HR, 286 IP

I don't know if it's just me, but whenever I think about Danks, I think about Barry Zito. He has that same kind of profile where his fastball is better than people will give him credit for. And he has alright command, but nothing to write home about. I don't have reports telling me so, but I imagine that sometimes he has trouble spotting his curveball in the strikezone. I expect that because it is pretty typical of this kind of arsenal. When you have quite a bit of movement on the curve, sometimes it goes out of the zone. He also has a reputation of trying to nibble on the corners, which is something that can be worked out with a good pitching coach, say like Orel Hershiser.

Danks struggled in his first exposure to AA, but that's not completely unexpected for somebody his age. He dominated batters his own age with his stuff and now he's running into more advanced guys that will force him to make adjustments and work on these weaknesses. One thing that does give me pause is the number of home runs he gave up, especially in Frisco. It has the potential to be a problem in Arlington, where fly balls have a tendency to fly over the fence more than just about anywhere outside of Denver and Mexico City. It's not a dealbreaker but it is something to watch.

Expect Danks to start back in Frisco next season and do well enough to move onto Oklahoma City or possibly to the Rangers rotation. But that's if things go really well. If things don't go so well, it pushes his time table back a year. His ceiling is as a solid #2/average #1 starter. His downside is like all pitchers, injury and the obscurity of former prospectdom.

ETA: Late 2006/Early 2007
4 Stars

Kendry Morales Report

2005-10-05T10:23:00.000-05:00

Kendry Morales, 1B, Anaheim Angels
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 2004, Cuba
Bats B/Throws R
22 YO, 6'1", 220 lbs

Morales ended up having a pretty decent season split between the California League and the Texas League. It didn't live up to pie-in-the-sky hopes of him challenging Dallas McPherson for the starting third base job in Anaheim, but those were unrealistic expectations anyways.

2005 Rancho Cucamonga: .344/.400/.544, 3 2B, 5 HR, 6 BB, 11 K, 90 AB
2005 Arkansas: .306/.349/.530, 12 2B, 17 HR, 17 BB, 43 K, 281 AB
MiLB Career: .315/.362/.534, 15 2B, 22 HR, 23 BB, 54, K, 371 AB

Well, it looks like he can hit. You have to like the batting average and isolated power. The Arkansas numbers are especially impressive since the Texas League is no filled will nothing but bandboxes. To be honest, there really isn't a single one remaining now that El Paso's franchise has moved to Missouri. Arkansas isn't exactly Wilmington or PetCo Park, but it isn't the worst place in the world to pitch either. So the power is for real. And there are no real red flags telling me that the batting average is a fluke either. The only real thing that I have to complain about is the walk rate, which is clearly subpar. That's just something to start working on though. I think that he should continue to hit and if he improves his selectivity at the plate, he has the chance to be a very nice major leaguer. Watch out for an offensive breakout if he starts the year in Salt Lake City next year because unlike Arkansas, that is a bandbox, aided by a pretty high elevation.

There are other thing to talk about as well. I'm on the record as not trusting Cuban birthdates, so I'm skeptical of the promise that his age brings. He'd still be a pretty good prospect and a probable major leaguer if he is really 25 years old instead of 22. But it would greatly diminish his ceiling. The other things that needs to be discussed are defense and baserunning. Both are question marks. The Angels are sticking to the party line stating that they think his defense is perfectly fine and that he only needs more work. I'm skeptical due to reports that his range is awful and his footspeed is nonexistent. It certainly looks like the hopes that he'd be a third baseman was just a case of wishcasting. He won't steal bases. If they move him to the outfield, he will be restricted to a corner spot and probably won't have very much range there either.

Morales's bat will definitely carry him. If he can make adjustments in AAA and the Show, he'll be successful. If he doesn't adapt at the plate, he'll end up being a really overpriced AAAA slugger pounding fastballs out of places like Nashville, Rochester, and Nagoya.

ETA: Late 2006/Early 2007
4 Stars

2000 Cal League Prospects

2005-09-30T22:39:00.000-05:00

I was looking at BA's Cal League Top Prospect List and I spotted their "5 Years Ago" window.

1. Antonio Perez, ss, Lancaster (Mariners)
2. Ryan Ludwick, of, Modesto (Athletics)
3. Jerome Williams, rhp, San Jose (Giants)
4. Mike Bynum, lhp, Rancho Cucamonga (Padres)
5. Brad Cresse, c, High Desert (Diamondbacks)
6. Willie Bloomquist, 2b, Lancaster (Mariners)
7. Nick Neugebauer, rhp, Mudville (Brewers)
8. Tony Torcato, 3b, San Jose (Giants)
9. Jeremy Owens, of, Rancho Cucamonga (Padres)
10 Elpidio Guzman, of, Lake Elsinore (Angels)

Wow. That's a pretty awful group, isn't it.

Perez is salvageable I guess as a borderline 2B or a bench bat. Ludwick is somewhere between a AAAA slugger or a platoon bench guy in the majors. Injuries have killed him too. Williams is the keeper of the group, which is a scary scenario. He has his moments, but he's had some injury issues and he fell off the map for a while. Bynum and Cresse look like washouts. Bloomquist is now infamous as a guy who is on a major league roster for no good reason at all. I guess he has some use as a glove that you can use anywhere other than catcher, but if he can't hit then that limits his usefulness. Neugebauer never did find his control and then he blew out his shoulder. Torcato has turned into a poor man's Lance Niekro, which is damning with faint praise. Owens is a 4th outfielder...in Pawtucket. And Guzman put up a .281 OBP last season in Tacoma.

So you have 1 ML level starter, 6 complete washouts, 2 guys who may end up being good bench bats, and a guy who has more service time than any of the rest (maybe more than all of them put together to be honest) and didn't deserve any of it.

Now I mention this to serve 2 purposes. The first is to remind everybody that this isn't an exact science. I feel great when one of the players I tout comes in and produces just like I expect he will. However, the other side of that coin comes up more than we ever want to let ourselves admit. Always be cautious. Major League teams need to hedge their bets and if you're in a keeper league or sim league, you should too.

The second reason is to illustrate a point that I've made before. Extreme environments lead to misleading results. I'm not fond of the Cal League because of the hitting environment that dominates the circuit. It muddies the stats and makes random marginal players look like studs. For a while there it seemed like every season there would be another Mariner shortstop who benefits from Cal League goofyball hijinks and becomes a big name before moving on to the high minors and getting the bat knocked out of his hands. Now 2000 was probably a worse year than usual. And the biases that are inherent in BA's approach to rating prospects, such as a willingness to overlook Neugebauer's severe control problems probably compounds the situation and makes this list look worse than it really should have been. But you still have the underlying problem of trying to figure out how much of what should be chalked up to context and what is real progress.

Rick Ankiel Report

2005-09-16T11:38:00.000-05:00

Rick Ankiel, OF/LHP?, St Louis Cardinals
Drafted 72nd Overall (2nd Rd), 1997 Draft, HS, Port St Lucie, FL
Bats L/Throws L
26 YO, 6'1", 215 lbs

I trust that anybody who is reading this blog knows the Rick Ankiel story. Brilliant young left pitcher whose command (which was never his strong suit to begin with) completely deserts him on national TV, he struggles in the minors for a while, has Tommy John surgery, attempts to come back, shows signs of life but the same old problem keeps coming back time and time again. He wants a fresh start and becomes an outfielder. And here we are.

2005 Quad Cities: .270/.368/.514, 10 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 27 BB, 37 K, 185 AB
2005 Springfield: .243/.295/.515, 7 2B, 10 HR, 10 BB, 29 K, 136 AB
2005 Total: .259/.339/.514, 17 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 37 BB, 66 K, 321 AB
MiLB Career: .262/.337/.532, 18 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, 49 BB, 94 K, 455 AB

That's an interesting line with essentially a full minor league season of data. It's pretty obvious that he'll turn on a cripple pitch. He's also flashed some hints of plate discipline. On the other hand his plate discipline waned in the Texas League and drug down his batting average along with it. He was way too old for the Midwest League so he should have been putting up numbers with Quad Cities. On the plus side, in the interviews I've read, he seems to have a solid understanding of hitting, emphasizing swinging at good pitches and laying off junk outside the zone.

Ankiel is a unique case in all respects. As a pitcher he's unique in that he's all given us hope a dozen times and then crushed that hope with a repeat of his problems. He has talent but monumental flaws. As a hitter, he has decent numbers, but you have to balance his age with his inexperience. I honestly don't think he has the talent to make it back to the majors as a pure outfielder. His bat looks decent, but not good enough to get him over the hump. If he's going to make it back to the show, it will be either as a pitcher or as a better Brooks Kieschnick, filling in as a reliever here and there while doubling as a pinch hitter du jour. Then again, he could surprise us by adapting well and ending up as a starting right fielder for a few years with the Cards. Ya never know.

Other things of note that you might be interested in would be his defense and baserunning, both of which are works in progress. He didn't attempt a steal all season. In fact, I don't have any record of him ever attempting a steal as a professional baseball player. His defense will probably limit him to an outfield corner. He has some athleticism, but not THAT much.

ETA: ?
2 Stars

Week One football Rant/Miscellaneous Other Rants

2005-09-12T15:33:00.000-05:00

With all due respect to Will Carroll, this report is powered by a brand new Dell.

-So we're in the 2005 season and we've now had plenty of time to deconstruct 2004 and the Patriots dynasty, yet somehow there's still this perception out there that football is being dominated by a latter day interpretation of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots are still seen as this gritty, gutty team that doesn't have much talent but gets by with some tough defense and an offense that refuses to give the ball away. It is true that their defense is remarkably effective. However, this is a very effective offensive team. I mean look at the numbers. They were the 4th highest scoring team in football. They've packed their offense with a very good line, a capable back, some talented young receivers, and Tom Brady, who is the lightning rod for the franchise.

Tom Brady has been defied by the press and the general public, yet because of WHY they have defied him, they UNDERRATE him. The story is the same for the team as a whole. Brady has improved his arm strength and accuracy, opening up the field. He's not a better version of Trent Dilfer back in those glory days for the Ravens. He's a playmaker. Sure he's great at reading defenses and dumping it to the right guy, but he's more than that now.

My own pet theory is that this whole effect is a byproduct of the Cult of Clutch that we have in this country. In sports it seems to be clutch than it is to be great. Derek Jeter and Tom Brady are Gods walking among us because they produce when it counts and are the face of successful organizations. Joe Montana is known for being great in the playoffs, nevermind the fact that he was great whenever he happened to be playing. I don't understand the urge to gloss over everyday excellence in favor of sepia-toned postcards from high profile games. Actually, I do get it but I've never felt that urge to boil excellence to individual moments. If somebody's great, they're great on a regular occasion. But no, there's more of a love for the overachiever than there is the guy who was simply good enough and talented enough to kick your ass everyday of the week. Me? I'll take the '27 Yankees instead of the 2002 Angels.

-Next on my list is F1, where after buying the Jaguar team last year and rebadging it Red Bull Racing, they're buying Minardi and plan on keeping both teams. How is this possibly within the rules? Are they going to merge the two teams and form a 4 car team like they have in NASCAR and IRL? Or are they going to keep the two organizations separate? And if they are, are they going to fund actual improvement in the team formerly known as Minardi? I don't have answers to these questions, but I would like to get my hands on them. I can see definite advantages to RB owning Minardi if they improve the team. They could easily make things much more interesting back towards the back of the pack. It would also give American Scott Speed a race seat to fill and along with the new management at Midlands F1, it would put a temporary end to F1 seats being bought by drivers whose sponsorship is the driving force behind their career advancement. On the other hand, if they let the team just linger at the back, it just kicks the can down the road and nobody is better off.

J.J. Furmaniak Report

2005-09-08T16:47:00.000-05:00

J.J. Furmaniak, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Drafted 649th Overall (22nd Rd), 2000 Draft, Lewis University
Bats R/Throws R
26 YO, 6'3", 190 lbs

I'm writing the J.J. Furmaniak prospect report because in the words of Bill Simmons, it needs to happen. It has to happen. He's not all that as a prospect, but he has some upside as a utility infielder. He's as good a bet as anybody in baseball to be a fan favorite. He's a scrappy, dirty uniform white guy who has some pop in his bat, a pretty decent glove in the field, and a catchy name. I watched him a few times this season and I had no clue who he was or where he came from at first. I'll admit it. I'm not ashamed. I had no idea that the guy existed and I thought that the name had to have been a joke. It wasn't a joke.

Here's another reason why I need to write this report. He's a fellow GLVC alum. He's from Lewis University while I'm a graduate of THE University of Indianapolis. Also of note, he was the minor leaguer that the Pirates got in return for sending David Ross to San Diego.

2005 Portland: .266/.324/.437, 16 2B, 4 3B, 14 HR, 28 BB, 86 K, 9 SB, 5 CS, 387 AB
2005 Indianapolis: .288/.315/.410, 5 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 32 K, 5 SB, 3 CS, 139 AB
2005 Total: .272/.321/.430, 21 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 32 BB, 116 K, 14 SB, 8 CS, 526 AB
2004 Portland: .294/.348/.489, 24 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, 33 BB, 86 K, 8 SB, 5 CS, 425 AB
MiLB Career: .275/.345/.430, 133 2B, 31 3B, 63 HR, 241 BB, 564 K, 65 SB, 2476 AB

There's a lot of data up there. It tells you a couple of things. First, he's a pretty decent hitter for a minor league shortstop, but not somebody who is going to develop into a first rate major leaguer because of the age and middle of the road plate discipline. Any shortstop who can consistently post AAA slugging percentages in the mid .400's can at least give you replacement level work at the ML level. One thing to watch is the contact rate. He struck out a lot this season, which can't help his batting average at the next level.

Defensively, he's average at shortstop, showing steady hands and more range than you'd expect out of a guy this tall. He did make a couple of nice plays when I saw him in Indy. He made a nice game-ending leaping grab on a smoked line drive that showed good reactions. I'd be interested to see if they can turn him into a true utility player by teaching him to play the outfield. If they can do that, they have a poor man's Rob Mackowiak on their hands, only with the ability to play a credible short. Maybe that's more like a really rich man's Willie Bloomquist. At any rate, he's already a better player than Bloomquist. And Mackowiak is probably his ceiling on offense.

ETA: Whenever the Pirates Get Around to Calling Him Up
2 1/2 Stars

Current Events

2005-09-07T13:55:00.000-05:00

A couple of interesting things have happened in the last few days and I'd like to talk about them.

The first thing is the Pirates firing of Lloyd McClendon as manager. Actually, that's not the thing I find interesting. McClendon is a decent manager. He never struck me as either incompetent or gifted. He just fades into the background of managers who can do an adequate job, but aren't going to make a big difference. In fact almost every manager meets that description to me other than the ones who are needlessly destructive by means of running pitchers into the ground or by habitually overmanaging. The thing I'll miss about McClendon is the knowledge that once or twice a season he'll completely go off the deep end and make an ass of himself during an argument with an umpire. I'm not above saving these kinds of incidents on my PVR and rewatching them when I need a laugh. Right now I have the Frank Robinson staring contest saved.

What I find interesting is a brief discussion yesterday on ESPNews between Michael Kim and I believe it was Brian Kenny. The discussion centered around the fact that the Pirates don't suck because of McClendon, but instead because of the fact that they don't retain the young talent they produce. I concede that the sorry state of affairs in Pittsburgh isn't McClendon's fault. But it isn't because of free agent defections either. Over the last decade, they've kept most of the good players they've found or produced. Jason Kendall and Brian Giles immediately come to mind. The problem is twofold.

1. They've squandered the resources they have had by locking up both good players (Giles and Kendall) and bad players (Pat Meares and Kevin Young) for too long and for too much money.

2. They haven't produced enough talent to begin with.

Think about it for a second. What players have they really produced since Barry Bonds left? They found Brian Giles, getting him in a steal of a deal. Copy that with Kip Wells and Josh Fogg, both of whom are decent pitchers, but nothing that's going to blow your skirt up and are likely going to be pushed aside by the wave of pitching talent bubbling up through the system. Then you have Kendall, who is a pretty good player. The only guy I can come up with that they regrettably threw aside for monetary reasons was Aramis Ramirez. I guess you could count Jason Schmidt, but I tend to think that they just got unlucky with him as he was injury prone and mediocre in his time in Pittsburgh.

Most of the blame for the last decade of futility falls on Cam Bonifay's inept shoulders. I know it is a running theme here to chant that it isn't money but brains that builds winning teams, but even teams on a shoestring budget can stumble into relevance once or twice a decade if they're run competently. If they're run by really good GM's and scouting departments, they can become fixtures in playoff races like the A's and Twins have. There is hope in Pittsburgh right now fed by the emergence of Jason Bay and Oliver Perez and the young talent on display in the form of Zach Duke, Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm, Brad Eldred, Ronny Paulino, and Ian Snell. They have to shepherd these players into the lineup and rotation, hope that their early promise is a sign of things to come, and then surround them with good talent, but that's an ongoing concern everywhere that you have a young group of talented players. The big choices come in the form of Craig Wilson and Oliver Perez, both of whom have value either in trade or in being talent to add to the young guys. It remarkable how much this organization resembles that of the Brewers, who are facing a similar set of circumstances.

The next thing is on a similar theme of competence vs incompetence. Vince Namoli is leaving the Rays after the season, and it's possible (maybe even likely) that Lou Pinella and Chuck LaMar are going with him. This organization is showing a pulse despite continued mismanagement by LaMar and company. If they can find a GM and manager that is capable of making good choices and finding talent to surround BJ Upton, Delmon Young, Jonny Gomes, Jorge Cantu, Scott Kazmir, and Carl Crawford while also helping develop these young players enough to minimize their weaknesses, which in most cases is either making contact or swinging at every pitch that comes their way, they might be able to take advantage of aging squads in Baltimore and the Bronx and challenge Toronto and Boston in the future. There's a lot of work to do though. And I have zero faith in the ability of the current regime to capitalize on this opportunity.

Yuniesky Betancourt Report

2005-08-28T08:48:00.000-05:00

Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Seattle Mariners
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 2005, Cuba
Bats R/Throws R
23 YO, 5'10", 190 lbs

Betancourt was a high profile signing by the Mariners, who feel he can be an excellent player on offense and defense. The Mariners love his defense at short and see him as a Gold Glove waiting to happen. I have no evidence to refute their confidence in that part of his game.

2005 San Antonio: .273/.301/.410, 10 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 9 BB, 18 K, 12 SB, 7 CS, 227 AB
2005 Tacoma: .295/.323/.443, 9 2B, 6 3B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 14 K, 7 SB, 5 CS, 183 AB
ml Career: .283/.311/.424, 19 2B, 9 3B, 7 HR, 15 BB, 32 K, 19 SB, 12 CS, 410 AB
2005 Seattle: .239/.255/.326, 4 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, 1 BB, 12 K, 0 SB, 1 CS, 92 AB

Some general observations here. First off, what do you call a player who is on San Antonio's roster? Is he a Mission? Missionary? I really have no idea.

Seattle's original plan was to leave him in San Antonio for the whole season, but his play there convinced them that he was ready for higher levels. I'm not so sure. It's nice that he held his own in AA right out of the box. And San Antonio isn't the best place to hit in the Texas League, but he wasn't exactly tearing it up. .273/.301/.410 looks more like Rey Sanchez than somebody who deserves to be rewarded with a promotion. The sample size is too small to draw a firm conclusion from, but that Major League line doesn't look like a complete fluke to me. He's completely overmatched at this point.

He's raw. He's really raw. He needs work on the plate discipline. He needs some work on hitting the ball with power, which is a skill his backers claim he should be able to develop. He needs to stop trying to steal bases until he's able to read pitchers and get good jumps. That percentage is unacceptable.

I'm still very skeptical of Cuban birthdays. What proof do I need? I need a videotape of his birth with the doctor holding that day's New York Times with R Kelly's grandmother doing play-by-play, followed by a montage of pictures of him growing up, one picture per month for every month from birth to the day he signed a contract with the M's.

The M's really should let him start in Tacoma next season because he really has no business being on a ML roster at this point. He is ticketed to play in the Arizona Fall League. Getting the reps will help, but I worry that the M's and their fans will develop irrational expectations for him due to the offense-friendly atmosphere.

When looking at the possibilities of what he could become, the upside is probably Omar Visquel. The downside is Neifi Perez with a batter glove. If you're looking for a midpoint, I'd probably point to the Izturis brothers. There's enough here to give some hope of good things happening, but enough warning signs to make it a risky proposition.

ETA: Ready or not, he's arrived
2 1/2 Stars

Commentary and Links

2005-08-23T13:31:00.000-05:00

Starting out with Formula 1, this is interesting news. I'm not sure how good Scott Speed would be in F1 next year, but in general the idea is at least intriguing. Having an american driver in a Formula 1 cockpit would help next year's USGP attendance, but I'm afraid of getting him into the wrong team. I doubt there'd be much interest if he winds up in a Minardi or a Midlands seat since he'd have almost no chance of being relevant. I'd like to see him stay in GP2 and get into a heavy test schedule with Red Bull Racing. Get some time in F1 cars before jumping in. It would also give Red Bull a chance to sort out their driver situation and clear a spot for him.

One guy in GP2 that should be an F1 driver next year is Heikki Kovalainen. He'd be very good alongside Fernando Alonzo in the Renault camp.

On the broader note of the state of the GP2 series, Speed does make some good points. I like the series and the way they have a lot of things set up. The spec car series is a good thing for driver and team development. Having 2 races a weekend is also an interesting thing. Also, I love the idea of giving a championship point to the pole sitter and 2 points to the driver who records the fastest lap. I think that is something that should be incorporated into F1 (and IRL and Champ Car for that matter). I don't like the way they determine the grid for the sprint race though. It's just bizarre. The idea that somebody can pass another car to take 8th place late in the first race and end up on pole for the second race as a result seems arbitrary. One of two things need to happen. Either they need to just have the starting grid for the sprint race be the same as the finishing order of the long race or they need to incorporate a second qualifying session into the weekend.

Overall though, the GP2 series has produced some great races, some of the most exciting that I've seen this year. And I think there are a lot of drivers in there that have a future in Formula 1. Speed, Kovalainen, Nico Rosberg, and Adam Carroll all clearly have serious chops.

I'd like to mention that I really want to see the formula for how these rankings are calculated.

Off topic a bit, but actually related to this particular blog. As if we needed more proof of the fact that life imitates Office Space. Top of the cap to The Intern.

I just noticed that I haven't mentioned the proposed reorganization of the low minors. This would certainly be a big change for the draft. I'm officially neutral on the subject. I have no problem with it, though I would worry that MLB would be burning some bridges in the Appy League.

Indianapolis vs Durham Game Report

2005-08-18T09:11:00.000-05:00

I went to a day game between the Indy Indians and the Durham Bulls. I was hoping to watch BJ Upton and Delmon Young. 1 out of 2 ain't bad. Unfortunately Upton spent most of the afternoon as Durham's first base coach. He was on deck as a pinch hitter when Mark Corey got Jeff Deardorf to end the game on a groundout.

Young did play and he looked like everything he was supposed to be. It is obvious why scouts have been falling all over themselves in praising him. He's tall with a muscular, athletic build like you see in Vlad Guerrero and Jermaine Dye. He looks like if he wasn't a baseball player he could be a wide receiver or a small forward. His swing looks good too, though not picturesque in a Griffey circa 1998 kind of way. He had little or no problem handling Chris Enochs, who was having his best game of the year. He went 3 for 4, smashing two doubles down the left field line and poking a solid single into center. He also scored Durham's only run on an Earl Snyder double down the line. The kid can run and he can hit. He needs to draw more walks to be an MVP candidate, but even if he doesn't he has the talent to be a solid starting right fielder.

In the field, I didn't get much of a look at Young. He only fielded a couple of balls and didn't make any serious throws. The scouting reports give him good marks and given his athleticism and reports of classic right field arm strength, the Dye comparison crops up again. He has the talent to be a top notch player. He just needs to make some adjustments.

The Bulls also featured Eric Munson, Josh Phelps, and Fernando Cortez. Former Major Leaguers Munson and Phelps are looking more and more like AAAA guys, though some of the better ones you'll see.

Munson has that take and rake approach down to a science. He's also capable of launching majestic blasts. But his swing is a little long and looping. I saw him a couple years ago with Toledo and he looks a little more polished, but he still has the same strengths and weaknesses. At this point I think what you see is what you get.

I saw Phelps a couple years ago too when he was with Syracuse. He's more of a mystery. A couple years ago he looked like the best player on the field because he WAS the best player on the field by a good margin. He looked like he was going to walk into the Skydome and take the Major Leagues by the scruff of the neck and show it who was boss. Yesterday he looked like just another guy. He's lost out there. His plate discipline has eroded and he looks like he's just guessing. He's putting up pretty decent numbers, but it's obvious why he wasn't making the grade in Tampa.

Cortez is a second base prospect that I haven't talked about yet. I should do that soon. I like him but he's not a sure thing. He's struggling with his batting average and his walk rate. He looks good at the plate though and he didn't swing at bad pitches and he got good wood on everything he swung at. He's good defensively and he's a good baserunner as his 23 for 27 success rate in stealing bases can attest. He might stall in AAA or he might go on to become a solid player in bigs. It's too early to tell, though he has some work to do. If he makes it, think of him as Robinson Cano with speed.

The Bulls had Kevin Cash on the bench, which is a shame. I've always liked him as a kind of poor man's Jason LaRue. With a day game following a night game, his absence was not unexpected.

The two prospects on the Indians roster were Ronny Paulino and Ray Sadler. I like what I see in Paulino. The kid can play. Like Cash, he was resting following a night game where he caught. He did play though, as the DH. The Pirates like his defense though, so I wasn't going to gripe about the missed opportunity. At the plate, he looks more muscular than most catchers, especially with the batting stance he uses. He has a wide stance and he holds his bat straight up and down and farther forward than most hitters you see.

Sadler played left and was the leadoff hitter. He's played some center and might end up as a 4th outfielder, a role he'd be pretty good at. He's ill equipped as a leadoff hitter since he doesn't draw walks and he doesn't hit for the kind of average required to make up for such a weakness. He has speed, but he's been caught stealing more times than he's been successful this year. This day though he took a misplaced fastball and smacked it hard over the 418 foot sign in left center. It was announced as traveling 430 feet. I don't expect this kind of power from him. Also of note, his arm looked weak, Johnny Damon or Bernie Williams in his death throws weak. He four-hopped a throw from the left field corner to second base.

The two starters were Enochs and Chris Seddon, who is a fringe prospect. Enochs had a great game, using his fastball/slider combination to keep hitters off balance. He's had issues with walks this season, but his command yesterday was impeccable. 8 1/3 scoreless innings dropped his ERA by half a run. His fastball ranged from 86 to 90, settling in most of the time at 87/88. He's a minor league FA guy having a good day. Don't expect him on a ML roster near you.

Seddon didn't have a good day. His command was awful and he got beat up by an Indians lineup that was missing Graham Koonse and has seen the defections of Ryan Doumit, Brad Eldred, and Nate McLouth. His fastball was in the high 80's as well, working at 87-89 MPH. He flashed a painful 62 MPH changeup that made Yurendell DeCaster look like an elephant had just walked on the field. He only threw a handful of them the whole game though. And one of them bounced about feet in front of the plate. I wasn't impressed. Bad control, mediocre stuff. If has a couple more days like this one, his ERA will get into Boeing territory.

Gabriel Martinez Report

2005-08-16T13:16:00.000-05:00

Gabby Martinez, 1B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Drafted 799th Overall (27th Rd), 2001 Draft, HS, Sabana Grande, P.R.
Bats L/Throws R
22 YO, 6'2", 180 lbs

Martinez entered 2005 as Baseball America's 19th ranked prospect in the Rays organization, but he hasn't adapted to AA very well. His bat hasn't translated well at all and he's put up numbers that would be unacceptable for a middle infield prospect, let alone a first baseman. If this continues, he isn't going to even make it to the International League, let alone The Show.

2005 Montgomery: .231/.305/.359, 12 2B, 6 HR, 23 BB, 65 K, 251 AB
2004 Bakersfield: .323/.371/.454, 39 2B, 4 HR, 30 BB, 90 K, 436 AB
mL Career: .296/.356/.431, 89 2B, 17 HR, 102 BB, 245 K, 1147 AB

What do we learn from the above numbers. First we learn that if you don't hit the ball over the fence in the Cal League, you aren't likely to pick up the skill in the Southern League. Secondly, we learn that AA is a lot harder than HiA or the New York-Penn and Appy Leagues, where he put up a combined .315/.373/.451 line in 896 AB.

Martinez is heavily reliant on his ability to hit singles and doubles and those were heavily aided last year by the best hitter's league in the minors. It has been hurt this year by arguably the worst hitter's league in the minors. He takes just enough walks to get by, but not enough to make him an OBP machine. He hits some balls into the gaps, but not enough to compensate for his inability to hit it over the fence. At his best he's a poor man's Kotchman/Aubrey/Casey. At his worst he's weak bat at the wrong end of the defensive spectrum. If he can pull out of this funk, he could POSSIBLY become a decent pinch hitter in the majors and a starter in AAA. I'd like to see if he could play the outfield corners and play some third base from time to time. His bat isn't cut out for a living as a first baseman, so any defensive flexibility he could bring to the party would improve his career chances. He's played some third in the past and his athleticism earns high marks for a first baseman, so it isn't out of the question.

ETA: 2007
1 1/2 Stars

Miscellaneous

2005-08-14T08:30:00.000-05:00

How about a notes column? I have several things that may warrant their own posts, but I feel like knocking them out all in one fell swoop.

-The sports world has been abuzz with the Terrell Owens controversy. My interest in the subject is limited. I'm conflicted about it for a couple of reasons. The first is that I really want him to play. I have him on my roster in a fantasy football league. He's a big gamble and my team will likely live or die with whether or not he plays. The other side of it is that I take pleasure in watching the NFL's chickens come home to roost. Say what you will about Scott Boras, but the guy is right. NFL contracts are a joke. A contract's integrity is tied to the ability of both parties to change or get out of the deal. It's incredibly easy for teams to get out the deal and it is commonplace for players to restructure their deals either for more money or to improve the team's salary cap flexibility. The team can drop the player at any point, so any notion of loyalty is implicitly a one way street. There are definite advantages to non-guaranteed contracts, especially for the owners. They get cost certainty in a sport where career-ending injuries are a fact of life. I'm surprised this kind of thing doesn't happen MORE often. Teams cut guys every year and shrug their shoulders passing it off as "just business."

That being said, T.O. is acting like an insufferable prick and deserves every bit of negative press that is coming his way.

-The other big controversy of the last few weeks is the Raffy Palmiero suspension. There's already been reams of articles written about this and I'll try to refrain from repeating anybody else's viewpoint.

Here's my take on this. Raffy is incredibly stupid. He's monumentally stupid. This crap that he was taking has been around since the 60's. If he thought that he could get away with it, he deserves to be banned from the game just on the principle that he's too dumb to deserve money and fame. You're a goddamned millionaire for chrissakes. It's one thing for a 20 year old A-ball flunky living on $1000 a month to use the cheap stuff that shows up on every drug screening known to man. It's another thing entirely for a guy who makes that every day. According to just about every authority known to man, there are at least a dozen BALCO's out there (probably 2 to 3 times that) with a roster of undetectable (and more effective) steroids ready for consumption. All you have to do is pay more money and have some connections. Just go find a track star somewhere. He'll point you in the right direction.

Unbelievable.

-On a happier note, I was right, then I was wrong. This is one of the most amazing things to happen this year. The A's were beyond awful during the first couple months and I thought that even the most optimistic scenario ended with them getting back to .500 in the final month of the season and building towards relevance next year. Instead, they were over .500 within a month and are obviously very relevant this season. Barry Zito and Eric Chavez have straightened themselves out. The bullpen has recovered. The offense is smoking. And Dan Johnson has been great since being called up.

What Billy Beane has done is very rare. He's remade his roster without falling into obscurity. This is something that many teams have failed to do. The only immediate example that comes to mind is John Schuerholtz and the Braves. In basketball, you have Donnie Walsh and the Indiana Pacers. This also means that those who doubt Beane is among the best GM's in the game should probably get out a bib because they'll be eating some crow. This is now undoubtedly Beane's team. There are very few holdovers from before he took over.

-Last on the list of grievances is just a brief mention for Jonny Gomes. He's been a revelation for fantasy teams everywhere. If you wound up with him, you've been the recipient of 15 home runs in 194 at bats, good for a .592 slugging percentage. It's not like this is a surprise. There were a lot of people talking about how this guy could hit. Yet still the Devil Rays decided that it was better to hand over at bats to stiffs. They're still giving at bats to Travis Lee, who hasn't really been even a threat to put up a competent line since the Clinton administration. The idea that he didn't start the season on the Rays active roster borders on criminal negligence.

Now let's see if we can get his former Durham teammate, Matt Diaz into a full time role with the Royals.

Game Report: Indianapolis vs Toledo

2005-08-08T08:46:00.000-05:00

Yesterday I went to the Indianapolis Indians/Toledo Mudhens game that featured a number of interesting players. I was with my wife, my brother, and his girlfriend. I didn't take notes, this is all personal recollection combined with the box score. Nevertheless, here's my commentary.

Mike Connolly started the game for Indy and was the star of the show. He kept Toledo's lineup off balance by doing his best Jamie Moyer impression all day. He threw a lot of off speed stuff. I mean a lot. It looked like he had a changeup in the low 70's, a slurvy breaking ball in the high 70's, and a fastball that worked mostly in the mid 80's. His location was good all day on all three pitches and he looked like he was toying with the batters. His defense also helped. All 4 infielders looked good.

Speaking of Connolly's defense, Yurendell DeCaster looked outstanding at first base. It's a rare day when a first baseman looks like the best defensive player on the field, but this was one of them. DeCaster has played third in the other times I've seen him, and he looked comfortable there, making all the routine plays. He didn't stand out though. I don't remember him charging any ground balls or making any diving stops followed by a rocket across the diamond to just nail a streaking runner. Today though, he made at least 3 plays that just stood out. One was a diving stop right over the first base bag to start a double play. That was a very hard hit ball and his reactions were pretty impressive. He also smoked a couple of singles through the infield. He's now in his mid 20's and he looks like he's settling in as a good AAA regular with maybe a callup here and there to provide an extra body on somebody's bench. His ceiling probably looks like his teammate Ty Wigginton, only with a little more power.

The Indians also had Bobby Hill and Ty Wigginton in the lineup and they looked just as you'd expect to look. They looked like the AAAA guys they are. Wigginton is the better player of the two, but Hill is a little younger. Still, I have more faith that Wiggy is more likely to see a Major League clubhouse again. Hill looks like he's on the career trajectory that has him out of baseball within 5 years and he isn't that great defensively at either 2B or 3B. Wigginton by comparison is a worse defensive second baseman, but is pretty good at the hot corner. He can be of some use to a team that needs a bench bat and a guy who can be a defensive replacement for their 3B.

Graham Koonse looked good at the plate. He smashed a pretty majestic home run over the center field wall. That's a hard thing to do at Victory Field.

Nate McLouth didn't do much, but I still like him.

This was the first time I saw Ronny Paulino and I liked what I saw. His swing looked quick. He didn't chase any bad pitches. And he smoked what seemed like every pitch he saw that was over the plate. I'll have to watch him again to get a feel for his defense behind the plate. He really didn't have any plays that challenged him. He looked comfortable back there, but I couldn't tell you how well he throws or how fast his reactions are.

On the other side was Kenny Baugh. Baugh had more velocity, but he wasn't nearly as sharp. He wasn't wild, but he didn't have command over his pitches, missing up and over the heart of the plate. His breaking stuff just sat there waiting to get hit. I'd like to know whether this was a bad day or if he's tiring towards the end of the season.

The entire Toledo team looked listless. They looked apathetic. First among that crowd was Carlos Pena, who looked more like he was waiting for a bus than trying to play baseball. At the plate he looked mediocre. In the field he looked awful, exhibiting little range, bad hands, and a complete lack of interest. He should get another chance somewhere, but he'll have to look better than he looked on Sunday. He used to carry the reputation of being an excellent defensive first baseman. What happened to that? On the positive side, he's still hitting .323/.433/.541 in the IL.

DeWayne Wise had an awful game in the field and a good game at the plate. He otherthrew home plate, got turned around on a deep fly ball, and played a big part in Baugh's bad day. On one of those bad plays, he made a bad break on a DeCaster deep drive and overplayed it when he did get close. It bounced on the warning track, off the out-of-town scoreboard, and over his head back into left field. He did recover later, making a couple of nice catches in deep left center, but the damage was done. At the plate, he had a bunt single and a solo home run on the one mistake pitch that Connolly made all day.

Curtis Granderson was a guy I wanted to get a good look at. He played center field and looked competent. Nothing more, nothing less, just competent. His range is below average, but he showed some zip on the throws back into the infield, and his hands looked pretty good. At the plate, he showed a solid line drive bat and good plate discipline. This all reinforced my opinion of him as a guy who should have a pretty nice ML career, but not somebody who is likely to be particularly famous. He should be an average major leaguer.

Attendance was lower than you'll find on most Sunday afternoons in Indy. There weren't that many people there. Then again, the Brickyard 400 was in town, which made driving and parking a bit of a pain for most people around town. We can usually park across the street at the White River State Park, but there were close to half million people in town for the race. Anyways, it was a great day to attend a sporting event. It was warm, but not stifling hot. It was sunny, but not too sunny. Just all in all, a nice day.

One guy about a section away from us grabbed a ball thrown into the seats from a kid that looked like he was about 8-10 year old. Even when the guy gave the ball to his daughter, people booed and the little boy gave him the stink-eye of a lifetime. That kid looked like he was going to go over and punch that big punk in the nose.

Be courteous at the ballpark.

Nate Schierholtz Report

2005-07-12T17:19:00.000-05:00

Nate Schierholtz, OF, San Francisco Giants
Drafted 63rd Overall (2nd Rd), 2003 Draft, Chabot Junior College (CA)
Bats L/Throws R
21YO, 6'2", 215 lbs

Schierholtz is an interesting prospect for the numbers he's put up and the raw hitting talent that he has. His swing is tailored for launching frozen ropes to both outfield gaps. He's always hit for average and has more power than most 21 year olds. There are some problems though. He's awful at drawing walks, his strikeout rate has spiked, and he's sliding down the defensive spectrum with lightning speed. Drafted as a third baseman, he couldn't cut it there and has moved to the outfield.

2004 Hagerstown: .296/.353/.584, 22 2B, 15 HR, 18 BB, 52 K, 233 AB
2004 San Jose: .295/.338/.469, 18 2B, 9 3B, 3 HR, 15 BB, 41 K, 258 AB
2005 San Jose: .310/.351/.487, 23 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 18 BB, 87 K, 310 AB
mL Career: .306/.357/.502, 69 2B, 17 3B, 29 HR, 66 BB, 203 K, 970 AB

The guy has talent. He can hit a baseball, but I can't give him a glowing endorsement until he learns that you don't have to swing at sliders in the dirt. Hitters who strike out in 30% of their at bats don't often hit .300 and if he isn't batting .300, then his walk rate will pull his OBP into Womack country. There are only so many Alfonso Sorianos and as Jose Reyes has found out, it's hard trying to be a good young player when you swing at everything.

If you're looking for a sure thing on San Jose's roster, look for Eddy Martinez-Esteve. He'll hit no matter where he is. Schierholtz is another one those lottery ticket guys. A small percentage of these guys are either talented enough to overcome their weakness and be a star even while pitchers are exploiting their hacktastic ways, and a different small percentage take the Sammy Sosa path and actually learn that they can leave the bat on their shoulder when it's a ball and swing hard when it's a strike. Those two populations are dwarfed by the number of guys who are crippled by their flaw and end up being AAA washouts or Mark Quinn-style flashes in the pan.

Now here's a second rant in this one report. I've been down this road before, but there really is no good reason why the Giants should be punting picks every season. In the back half of the first round, you can get some really nice stuff and it's worth the investment. In 2004, the Giants decided that it wasn't worth a million dollars to take a chance on a late first round pick. They passed up Huston Street, Zach Jackson, Justin Orenduff, and JC Howell. The Giants have a checkered draft history over the last half decade, but even then they've come out with solid prospects at least 1/3 of the time and that's all you need to be an assett and worth every penny. Furthermore, they've been pretty good at taking second round players of late. In 3 years they produced Fred Lewis, Schierholtz, and EME. It looks like it may be a bit of a moot point this season though, as both the Mariners and the Giants, the only two teams to actively use the strategy are pretty likely to finish in the bottom half of the league and as a result have their first round pick protected.

ETA: 2007
3 1/2 Stars

Sergio Mitre Report

2005-06-27T08:54:00.000-05:00

Sergio Mitre, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Drafted 198th Overall (7th Rd), 2001 Draft, San Diego City College
Bats R/Throws R
24 YO, 6'4", 210 lbs

Don't let the best two games of Mitre's career fool you. He's not going to be able to duplicate it long term. That doesn't mean he's without value. He's better than he's pitched SINCE those two games.

Mitre has a nice variety of pitches. He has only an average fastball, but it has some sink to it. He has a very nice slider and a curve and changeup that he can use as well. The slider is his best out pitch. He can also get some misses with the curve. The change is mostly a change of pace and is pretty average. The fastball creates tons of ground balls. He isn't going to blow it by anybody, but he'll induce a lot of hitters to beat the ball into the ground. As we've learned, that leaves him particularly reliant on the fielding ability of his infielders.

2004 Iowa: 2.98 ERA, 95 K, 39 BB, 97 H, 9 HR, 103 IP
2004 Chicago: 6.62 ERA, 37 K, 20 BB, 71 H, 6 HR, 52 IP
2005 Iowa: 4.60 ERA, 37 K, 14 BB, 49 H, 5 HR, 45 IP
2005 Chicago: 5.19 ERA, 19 K, 14 BB, 42 H, 4 HR, 43 IP
mL Career: 3.17 ERA, 427 K, 139 BB, 559 H, 27 HR, 553 IP
MLB Career: 6.14 ERA, 59 K, 38 BB, 128 H, 31 HR, 104 IP

Just staring at the numbers, I think he can be a pretty decent back of the rotation filler or a pretty nice swing starter at the Major League level, but he's not a staff ace in waiting. Middle relief is likely. If he impresses the right manager, he could find his way into a setup role. The best fit might be the swing role that I've talked about before.

ETA: N/A
3 1/2 Stars

Adam Harben Report

2005-06-22T00:47:00.000-05:00

Adam Harben, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Drafted 452nd Overall (15th Rd), 2002 Draft, Westlake Community College
Bats R/Throws R
21 YO, 6'1", 205 lbs

Harben is a nice surprise for the Twins. They didn't expect much when they drafted him out of a JuCo. He's developed into a real prospect. His stuff has become pretty filthy, with a mid 90's fastball with a slider and change complimenting it. He's put up excellent strikeout rates everywhere he's gone. He doesn't allow many hits. And he's done a very nice job of keeping the ball in the park. However, as I've said with probably 75 pitchers before him, this guy needs to improve his command and control. He walks too many batters and if he plans on climbing the ladder, he needs to stop giving out free passes.

2005 Ft Myers: 2.97 ERA, 62 K, 34 BB, 48 H, 3 HR, 64 IP
2004 Quad Cities: 3.09 ERA, 171 K, 68 BB, 114 H, 5 HR, 143 IP
mL Career: 3.42 ERA, 337 K, 145 BB, 280 H, 13 HR, 318 IP

All reports indicate that he's a good athlete and his mechanics look good. He just needs to figure out how to put the ball in the zone. If he does that, then he stands a good chance of riding the express elevator to one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. The Twins have a very good minor league system and guys like Harben are a big part of that. They have great depth and even if most of these guys flame out, they'll still have a handful of very nice young players. Harben is a lottery ticket. If he works out, the Twins have hit the jackpot and can boast another #1 starter and all it cost them was a 15th round pick and a nominal bonus. If he doesn't work out, you might not hear from him again.

ETA: 2008ish
3 1/2 Stars

Fernando Cabrera Report

2005-06-21T23:02:00.000-05:00

Fernando Cabrera, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Drafted 317th Overall (10th Rd), 1999 Draft, HS, Bayamon, PR
Bats R/Throws R
23 YO, 6'4", 225 lbs

Cabrera's been absolutely lights-out for Buffalo this season. He's probably been just about as good as any reliever you'll find. He has an ERA under 1, a Brad Lidge-like K rate. He's not walking anybody. And he's even listed about 30 pounds heavier than he was last season. Let's put it this way, he's shaved off a quarter of a run on his ERA in 38 innings while going over the 400 career inning mark. How's that for effective?

Cabrera has a closer's stuff. He gets up into the mid 90's with his fastball, carries a great splitter (can we go back to calling it a forkball?), and a developing changeup and slider. I haven't been able to ascertain whether part of this improvement is due to refinement of one of his secondary pitches, improved velocity on the heater, or just better command and control over his fastball/forkball combo.

2005 Buffalo: 0.95 ERA, 53 K, 7 BB, 26 H, 2 HR, 38 IP
2004 Buffalo: 3.84 ERA, 92 K, 43 BB, 57 H, 9 HR, 75 IP
mL Career: 3.52 ERA, 435 K, 159 BB, 358 H, 31 HR, 412 IP

Some caveats apply. 38 innings isn't conclusive proof of anything. And he is repeating the level. On the other hand, this just looks like one of those situations where everything seems to come together, the control improves, the strikeouts jump, and all of a sudden the guy turns into a dominant closer. He's had good scouting reports for years, boasting velocity and a closer's approach. The biggest thing holding him back was the command.

Bob Wickman is likely to be traded this season and when he does, Cabrera will get a chance to first fill the role of setup man and possibly side over to closer if he does well there. He should be considered along with Ryan Wagner, Mike Gonzalez, Chad Orvella, and Jeff Farnsworth as closers in waiting. I actually like his chances of success a little more than that of Wagner and Gonzalez.

ETA: Mid-Season
4 Stars

USGP Weekend/F1 Primer

2005-06-19T09:25:00.000-05:00

This weekend is the Us Grand Prix here in Indy, and F1 racing is my OTHER great love in sports. Today will be the first time in 4 years that I haven't attended the race. I went to the practice and qualifying sessions yesterday and the day before. So pardon the non-baseball interlude. Here's a brief baseball fan's guide to F1.

F1 has a lot of parallels with MLB. Both are among the more capitalistic organizations in sports. There are definitely the haves and the have-nots. Here's an easy guide for what team is what.

Ferrari=Yankees

They're the richest teams in their sport, and the glamour team. They've also been dominant over the last decade, but they're both struggling a bit this season. The each have the highest paid athlete in the sport (Michael Schumacher and A-Rod) and an iconic uniform (pinstripes and the NY and Ferrari red with the prancing horse logo). If you like to root for the evil empire, you'll probably love to root for the guys from Maranello. Still, nothing epitomizes the glamour and excess of F1 quite like this team. One place where the comp breaks down is in the decision-making process. Ferrari is organized, disciplined, stable, and extremely competent. There is no George Steinbrenner looming over everybody like the Sword of Damocles.

McLaren-Mercedes and Williams-BMW=Giants and Dodgers

They are the traditional powers of F1, and also bitter rivals. They are also mega-rich and driven to succeed with big fanbases. Here in Indy, you're likely to see a lot of McLaren gear since Indy is annually dominated by Columbians, who root for their favorite son, Juan Pablo Montoya.

Also note their rival German engine suppliers. This has surely upped the stakes of their rivalry over the last few years, but it won't be this way for much longer. BMW and Williams have been bickering at each other and will surely go their separate ways at the end of the season. The hot rumor is that BMW will buy the Sauber-Petronas team and make the engines AND cars. No word yet on who Williams would recruit to build their engines.

Renault=Twins

Renault has risen to prominence over the last few years on the strength of their smarts. They've developed a car that has incredible stability and efficiency. And while they're still likely to spend piles and piles of cash, the emphasis is never on their budget but rather their ideas and their ability to develop great designs.

Toyota=Angels

Toyota just showed up a few years ago and have spent more than anybody besides Ferrari over that period of time. It's starting to pay dividends too. They had been milling around at the back of the pack until this year, and now they're in the fight for poles and race wins. Jarno Trulli won the pole yesterday. Like Arte Moreno, they have deep pockets and a deep desire to win.

BAR Honda=Phillies

They show flashes here and there of being a really, really fast team, but it always seems to fall short. Even last year when they finished 2nd in the constructors championship, they seem to have been overshadowed by Renault and the ever-present Ferrari.

One BAR note, I remember a race weekend several years ago where they were blowing engines like they had an unending supply. And it isn't just that they were trashing motors, it's the way in which they were blowing them up, in explosive, smoky glory. It was like they were fogging for insects. I think they ended up going through half a dozen engines in 3 days with 2 cars. Unbelievable. When you're at 19,000 RPM, you don't get a check engine light and a funny smell.

Sauber-Petronas=Blue Jays

They're the best of the perennial backmarkers. They run Ferrari engines and have a rich owner in Peter Sauber, however they don't spend the kind of money they need to spend in order to catch up to the big boys.

Jordan=Pirates

They were pretty good a long time ago. At this point they've resigned themselves to being just another team that very few people pay attention to. If you want some entertaining follies, watch the Jordan drivers try to keep their cars on the road while the car desperately tries to spin like a top.

Minardi=Devil Rays

Hopeless. Unlike the Rays, they're content with where they are. They know they're not going to compete with their fellow Italians. They'd settle for just not coming in last. Recent meltdowns by Jordan have started making that a reality.

Other notes from the Grand Prix:

-I don't want to hear anybody gripe about how drivers aren't athletes because all they do is drive a car, and anybody could do that. That's a steaming pile of it. Driving a competitive F1 car has about as much to do with your daily drive to the megamart as playing put-put with your 5 year old has to do with playing a round with Tiger Woods. It's a demanding, harrowing activity and the closest experience you'll ever find to flying with the Blue Angels. They see G-forces that push close to the limits of the human body. 3-5 lateral G's in high speed corners, 4+ G's under breaking, and then a G or two in acceleration. They burn about the same number of calories as your average pro tennis player in a 3 hour match. Almost all of them train year-round, relying heavily on building very lean muscle and maintaining great cardio fitness. For instance, the IRL's Tony Kanaan runs triathlons in his spare time.

-Columbians are fun. They turn the race into a big soccer match. Sometimes I wonder if there's anybody left in Columbia or if they asked Peru to watch their stuff while they're gone.

-There can't be more than 2 or 3 sports facilities in the country that have more planes fly over them than IMS. Shea Stadium is probably one. Seriously, every time I go to the track, there's a plane that flies just south of the track about every 5 minutes. Sometimes they're close enough that you can tell what carrier they are. I spotted 2 FedEx's and a Southwest. The airport is about 15 miles away on the west side. However, due to FAA regulations, you won't see planes around there on raceday. 9/11 rears its ugly head.

-The facility is huge. If you go there, wear comfortable walking shoes because you'll probably walk at least 5 miles per day.

-Also if you go, try to use the least traveled route to the track. Go up or down interstate 65 to the 29th/30th street exit and go west towards the track. You'll end up at the north gate where you can park for free on Friday and Saturday, or for a nominal fee on raceday. I forget how much it is (maybe 10 bucks?), but it sure is cheaper than the $20 you'll pay to park in some guy's yard and the traffic, while busy, is still easier to deal with than on Crawfordsville Road and 16th street.

-Lastly, if you go, bring your own snacks and drinks. In general, come prepared. Me and the wife usually bring a cooler filled with 2 cans of soda for each of us, a container of fruit, some carrot sticks, and 2 bottles of water. And we bring a backpack with a can of chips, a camera, a pair of binoculars, and earplugs. You save a ton of money by not buying overpriced drinks 4 or 5 times a day, though if you're a beer drinker (which I am not), you could justify a few oversized cans of Fosters. And the earplugs are important. Protect your ears and have fun.

Martin Prado Report

2005-06-19T07:34:00.000-05:00

Martin Prado, 2B, Atlanta Braves
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 2001, Venezuela
Bats R/Throws R
21 YO, 5'11", 188 lbs

Prado is a fairly typical middle infield prospect, maybe with a little higher offensive ceiling than most, but he doesn't look like a GREAT prospect. Her profiles as a #2 hitter at this point, with some speed and a contact-related approach. He hits for average and has added a little power.

2004 Rome: .315/.363/.422, 25 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 30 BB, 47 K, 14 SB, 10 CS, 429 AB
2005 Myrtle Beach: .302/.353/.409, 11 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 22 BB, 44 K, 9 SB, 6 CS, 242 AB
mL Career: .306/.366/.399, 60 2B, 20 3B, 7 HR, 118 BB, 170 K, 64 SB, 36 CS, 1300 AB

While his plate discipline isn't great, it's not awful, and to be honest, it's par for the course with young infielders in A-ball. The power has a long way to go. Last season he added some doubles, but it still got his isolated slugging percentage up over .100, not particularly impressive. He also needs to work on getting better jumps on steal attempts. That success rate isn't really acceptable as far as I'm concerned.

What gets the scouts all weak in the knees is Prado's defense, which rates as exceptional by most all observations. He has great range, a better than average arm, and doesn't make too many mistakes.

If everything works out his way, he could end up being a good source of OBP and speed at the top of the order while also making ground ball pitchers look good. If things don't work out, he'll look a lot like Pokey Reese.

ETA: 2008
3 Stars

J.P. Howell Report

2005-06-14T17:56:00.000-05:00

J.P.Howell, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Drafted 31st Overall, 2004 Draft, Texas
Bats L/Throws L
22 YO, 6'0", 180 lbs

I've been trying to write this report for a week and a half now. Part of the problem I've been having is that I tried to make it not just a prospect report, but also a status report on the Royals franchise. I almost had it completed, but I had some technical problems, some burnout, and the Royals got REALLY ambitious and promoted him to AAA Omaha and THEN to the majors, which I completely didn't see coming.

Howell is a part of the hope that I carry around for my favorite team. He's a classic finesse lefty, but one with a lot of upside, courtesy of his sick breaking stuff. He doesn't have a ton of velocity. He maxes out just short of 90 MPH, and works a couple ticks below that on the gun most of the time, but he has uncanny control of both location and speed. And he varies between 2 and 4 seem grips. The two seam has a break inside the zone and the 4 seam has a sinking action. He also has really brutal breaking stuff with a curve that he can control for both location and break. Finally, he has a splitter that drops off the table.

Howell elicits a lot of comparisons to Zach Greinke, and for good reason. He's the same kind of pitcher. He does a lot of the same kinds of things. It's reasonable to think that the scouting brass took a look at their most recent success story and tried to emulate it. Howell is one of 3 similar pitchers they took last year. Matt Campbell has lost his command and Bill Buckner is following right in Howell's footsteps. On the other hand, it isn't a completely fair comparison since Howell is actually older than Greinke already. Still, Howell is a breakout star in the minors who is rocketing up to the majors like he's wearing JATO's. Whether you do it through velocity or break, the big thing is to miss bats. Howell misses bats.

2005 High Desert: 1.96 ERA, 48 K, 24 BB, 33 H, 2 HR, 46 IP
2005 Wichita: 2.50 ERA, 23 K, 5 BB, 12 H, 2 HR, 18 IP
2005 Omaha: 5.06 ERA, 2 K, 4 BB, 7 H, 0 HR, 5 IP
2004 Idaho Falls: 2.77 ERA, 38 K, 12 BB, 16 H, 1 HR, 26 IP
mL Career: 2.46 ERA, 111 K, 45 BB, 68 H, 5 HR, 95 IP

He had a stunningly effective ML debut, striking out 8 in 5 innings while allowing only one run for the win. I honestly have no idea how he'll translate at this level for the rest of the season. Pushing a guy this far this fast is always a ticket to unpredictable results. Furthermore, for better or worse, I'm not particularly fond of the strategy. I'd rather see them give Howell at least a half season in Omaha before throwing him to the wolves. Then again, Allard Baird has done a lot of flaky things this season. I like Howell in the long term, but with the rapid ascent and resulting lack of good stats, it's really hard for me to isolate exactly HOW much I like him.

ETA: Now, whether I like it or not
4 Stars

Note: I apologize for the lack of activity around here. As I mentioned before, I've had a touch of burnout that I'm trying to overcome. I won't abandon this blog, but I think that the pace of updates probably won't return to its previous levels until probably the offseason. Doing prospect reports is hard, time-consuming work. Check that, doing INFORMATIVE prospect reports is something that is hard and time-consuming. I strive to make these reports informative, entertaining, and well-written. As I continue to do this, I think I get progressively better at it, as my early stuff was little more than basic, one-paragraph blurbs. I'd also like to expand into more editorial content, dealing with whole organizations. I'll also start revisiting some of the over 300 players we've already talked about. This requires a lot of work as well. Stay tuned. I'm not going to abandon you or this work.

There are more and more places to read about prospects with evry passing day. However, there still aren't enough. In the introduction to his book The Juice, Will Carroll says that he started writing the book because it was something he wanted to read and nobody else had gotten around to writing it. That's pretty close to how I feel about this. I think there should be a website that you can tune into regularly and find something about a prospect you'd never heard of, and another report on a prospect that you know by heart.

Game Report: Indianapolis vs Charlotte

2005-06-06T07:03:00.000-05:00

I attended the Indianapolis Indians game yesterday afternoon. The player I wanted to see was pitcher Ian Snell. I also got another look at Nate McLouth and a first looks at Joe Borchard and Brian Anderson. I was hoping to see Brad Eldred, he didn't play, I presume because he was hit by a pitch on saturday.

Here's some background. It was really hot to begin with. A very stiff breeze out to left center. It was very gusty and I'm surprised nobody took advantage of it. Late in the game a front came through and it cooled off about 10 degrees almost immediately. Everybody was worried that a thunderstorm was imminent, but it never really happened.

Ian Snell looked pretty good, but the Knights got some hits off him. He worked primarily with his fastball. Probably somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 of his pitches were heaters. He worked mostly at 93-95 with some 96's thrown in there. He also took a little off of it at times, going down to 90 and 91 probably half a dozen times, mostly early in the game. He didn't lose any velocity as he went on. He was consistently at 95-96 MPH in the 7th. He threw his "hard curve" in the low 80's, and it was his primary off-speed choice. He didn't throw very many changeups and when he did throw it, I could see it coming. He had the same release point on all of his pitches and the same arm action, but his arm SPEED was noticeably slower on the change than it was with the fastball or slurve. He left a couple of pitches up and got punished for it. Ross Gload smashed a triple to deep right center that would have been out of a lot of ballparks. Raul Cassanova hit one out to the right field power alley. It wasn't his best game obviously, but he always seemed like he was in control and I liked what I saw.

Jon Adkins was the opposing starter and I was surprised by his stuff. I didn't remember him having that kind of gas. He pumped it up regularly up to 96 and 97 MPH. The problem is that it didn't have much movement and he left it out over the plate. The Indy outfield combined for 8 hits, 3 of them for extra bases. Nate McLouth in particular looked good. He pulled 2 fastballs to right center ad went the other way with one. He worked the count and made good, hard contact with the pitch that he wanted.

Brian Anderson didn't make much of an impression. Snell didn't give him much to work with on offense, and in the field he did a reasonable job in center. He had one ugly looking play where the wind played havoc with a deep drive to right center and he went crashing into the outfield wall.

All in all, it was a nice afternoon at the ballpark.

Chad Orvella Report

2005-06-05T10:04:00.000-05:00

Chad Orvella, RHP, Tampa Bays Devil Rays
Drafted 13th Rd, 2003 Draft, North Carolina State
Bats R/Throws R
24 YO, 5'11", 190 lbs

I just don't know how this happens. Orvella was a college shortstop with a big arm. The Rays drafted him and moved him to the mound and he hit the ground running. Even with little experience, he has 3 spectacular pitches and good command. His low-to-mid 90's fastball has a ton of movement. His changeup is filthy. And his worst pitch is his slider, which is still better than what you'll see from most good major leaguers. I don't know how a guy just picks up a ball and immediately starts doing this.

2004 Total: 1.71 ERA, 116 K, 10 BB, 42 H, 7 HR, 74 IP
pre-2005 mL Career: 1.46 ERA, 132 K, 11 BB, 48 H, 7 HR, 86 IP

After more of the same, he got the call. He should be more than able to be a dominant reliever. If the Rays want him to be their closer, he'd be great. If they want to keep his arbitration payday to be lower, they could get just as much use out of him giving him multiple inning assignments in tight games in the 7th and 8th. Bad teams like the Rays don't really have much of a reason to carry a designated closer. Fantasy owners should keep an eye on him. He joins the ranks that include Jesse Crain and Akinori Otsuka of closers in waiting, who would set the fantasy world alight if they actually do get a chance. If he was on Atlanta's roster, he'd already have been on SportsCenter 3 times by now.

ETA: Now
4 1/2 Stars

Note: Sorry this is only the second prospect report I've posted since coming back from vacation. I've been pretty busy at work and I've been gearing up for the draft.

Today, I hope to go see Ian Snell pitch for the first time. This is also the first time I'll get to see Brad Eldred.

Jose Bautista Report

2005-06-03T06:09:00.000-05:00

Jose Bautista, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Drafted 599th Overall (20th Rd), 2000 Draft, Chipola (FL) Junior College
Bats R/Throws R
24 YO, 6'0", 195 lbs

Picture for a moment that it is December of 2003. You are Jose Bautista. You just finished up the year in the HiA Carolina League. You missed most of the season with a broken hand. When you did play, your batting average was way below your career norms. Admittedly you only had approximately 650 career at bats before that season, but they came in at just below .300. You've demonstrated good walk rates and gap power to go with a good glove and some athleticism. You just turned 23 a couple months ago and the organization has told you that they like you a lot. They don't have any other serious third base prospects ahead of you. And they have some pretty fungible players on the 40 man roster. As a result, you aren't thinking about the Rule 5 draft coming up. They'll surely add you to the 40 man roster and keep you around. Right?

Wrong. The Pirates left him off the 40 man roster and Baltimore snatched him up, starting him on a bizarre journey that took most of 2004 to sort itself out. He played for 4 Major League teams, none of them particularly good. He didn't play well as he was clearly in over his head. He was put on waivers, claimed, sold, and then traded for Justin Huber, a much better prospect.

MLB Career (2004): .205/.263/.239, 3 2B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 40 K, 88 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .287/.385/.452, 51 2B, 24 HR, 119 BB, 200 K, 846 AB

This season, he's in AA, where he should have spent last year in the first place. He's playing reasonably well given that he's missed the better part of 2 seasons. He's back to walking, though not at the rate that he showed in the lower minors. His isolated slugging is also down.

Bautista has some talent. He demonstrated some skills early in his career. And the scouts still like him. He lost a lot of development time though and is now at the point on the age curve where he needs to start moving through the high minors. His ceiling probably looks something like Mike Lowell, though I wouldn't bet the house on that. The chances are better that he becomes an ordinary AAA guy.

ETA: Late 2006
2 1/2 Stars

Jason Botts Report

2005-06-02T05:24:00.000-05:00

Jason Botts, OF/1B, Texas Rangers
Drafted 1375th Overall (46th Rd), 1999 Draft, Glendale (CA) Junior College
Bats B/Throws R
24 YO, 6'6", 250 lbs

If you were making an All Big Guy prospect team, Botts would almost certainly be the left fielder. That would make an interesting prospect team. Put Brad Eldred at 1B and Walter Young at DH. You can get Mike Morse to play SS. You could pretty easily load up a pitching staff with skyscrapers. Anyways, Botts is a massive guy. He's more athletic than you'd expect a 250 pound man to be, but it still only gets him up to a point where he isn't going embarrass himself in the field. He's probably better suited defensively to be a first baseman, but the Rangers have a ton of guys who are qualified to fill that role, not that they don't have a crowd on the outfield corners and DH spot. His range is limited in left. His arm is decent, but not notable. He also has decent hands and instincts.

2004 Frisco: .293/.399/.507, 25 2B, 24 HR, 77 BB, 126 K, 481 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .290/.399/.455, 109 2B, 61 HR, 301 BB, 450 K, 1926 AB
2005 Oklahoma: .302/.396/.557, 15 2B, 10 HR, 26 BB, 60 K, 192 AB

He's seen a pretty big jump in his strikeout rate, up into Pat Burrell territory. I'm not usually one to hold that against a guy though, and it certainly doesn't seem to be hurting Burrell these days. It might hold down his average in the long term though. However, he has a long track record of showing good plate discipline and acceptable batting average. And he started making souvenirs of fastballs last year and hasn't slowed down with his promotion this season. He can clearly hit a little bit. And he will always be a credible threat to hit 3 run home runs whether he's in the PCL or with a Major League team. I don't see stardom, and I wouldn't really recommend him for your fantasy team, but if I'm a GM, I'd rather give him some at bats than Raul Mondesi's withered husk or Randy Winn.

ETA: Late 2005
3 1/2 Stars

In Lieu of Prospect Reports

2005-06-01T10:24:00.000-05:00

I'm back from vacation and it was great. I wish I could do it more often. It was refreshing and needed. The grind of everyday life wears a person down. I hope to bug you guys about my travels in this space. There's a lot to talk about.

Unfortunately, being away from any sort of computer for a week put me severely behind the news curve, and being somebody who spends an alarming amount of time reading blogs and internet columns, and flipping through dozens of box scores and stat sheets, catching up is a huge job. I should have a prospect report completed late this afternoon or at worst, tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, I'll bleat on about something that confounds me, the A's season. Admittedly when I predicted them to win the A.L. West, it was a bold, probably foolish prediction based upon principles such as an MVP candidacy for Eric Chavez, continued emergence of Bobby Crosby, Juan Cruz, Kiko Calero, and Rich Harden, rebound seasons from Barry Zito and Octavio Dotel, and strong seasons from Joe Blanton, Dan Haren, and Huston Street. Obviously, most of that hasn't worked out. But the extent to which it hasn't worked out is the shocker. If you would have told me that age would catch up to Jason Kendall, I wouldn't have called you crazy. If you would have told me that Mark Kotsay and Scott Hatteberg would regress, I wouldn't have called you crazy. If you would have told me that Keith Ginter and Mark Ellis would become a huge liability, I wouldn't have called you crazy. If you would have told me that Dan Haren and Barry Zito would only achieve mediocrity, I wouldn't have called you crazy. I wouldn't have even called you crazy if you would have told me that Octavio Dotel would continue to be a bit flaky and then go down with an elbow problem. But I would have called you crazy if you would have told me that all of this would happen simultaneously while also witnessing a complete collapse from Chavez and Durazo, injuries to Harden, Crosby, and Calero, and a general malaise which has caused the team to plummet to the absolute bottom of the pack in runs scored, and nearly every other offensive metric. It's like a perfect storm of suckitude and it is really unnerving to anybody who isn't a fan of the Rangers or Angels.

Let's break it down by category.

Things that have gone right: Not much. Justin Duchscherer, Street, and Keiichi Yabu have filled in admirably in the bullpen. Harden was great before he got hurt. And part of Dotel's apparent flakiness was due to the fact that his failures were largely in one run situations without the two and three run leads that most closers get to pad their stats with. His ERA and K rate doesn;t look that bad, though admittedly he's given up far too many free passes. On offense, the best you can say is that Marco Scutaro has been better than expected and Bobby Kielty has been a good source of OBP in part-time duty.

Things that have gone about as you might have expected: Barry Zito and Dan Haren have ERA's in the 4's while posting good strikeout rates. Both have shown some signs that they might be able to lower that if they give up walks a little more carefully. They can obviously miss bats, but they just need to place their pitches in the zone more often. Kirk Saarloos has a similar ERA, but it is sure to balloon as his K rate is awful. Kotsay and Hatteberg have regressed, but both have always been pretty ordinary with the bat through most of their careers. For the most part, the team's defense hasn't been terrible, though it isn't what I expected, and the loss of Crosby for most of the season has hurt.

Things that have crashed and burned: Eric Chavez and Erubiel Durazo have gone completely into the crapper. Jason Kendall turned into a truly punchless afterthought. Eric Byrnes has also stunk it up. Ginter and Ellis have turned into AAAA fodder, and now Ginter is Sacramento's problem. Adam Melhuse has proven to be of no threat to Kendall or Durazo. Nick Swisher took the concept of rookie adjustment period to heart before also going down with an injury. Charles Thomas has showed that 2004's semi-relevance was a fluke. When it comes to the pitching staff, Juan Cruz was an unmitigated disaster. Joe Blanton has more walks than strikeouts.

The injuries have really been a body blow that this team couldn't withstand. This is an organization that hasn't had to deal with many big injuries for a half decade now. This year has been riddled with major injuries.

The time to throw in the towel is now. Beane's brought up Dan Johnson since Durazo mercifully went on the DL. They're grooming Street to take over as the team's main option in late inning, high leverage situations. And if they can find a taker for any of their veterans, they'll undoubtedly go for it. Unfortunately, they're unlikely to find any takers for Dotel's creeky arm or Kendall's faceplant or Durazo or Hatteberg's albatross. The only thing they can really do is use the rest of the season to evaluate whether or not Blanton will pull up on the stick before he becomes a smoldering heap surrounded by NTSB investigators. They need to see if Zito's newfound slider will interest somebody who needs another starter, whether or not Johnson is the future at 1B. They also need to figure out what's wrong with Chavez, whether they should cut bait on Ginter, Ellis, Kendall. It wouldn't hurt to drag in Jack Cust to see if he can approximate Durazo's upside. They need to take long hard looks at Brant Colamarino, Andre Ethier, and Dallas Braden. They also need to cross their fingers for Dan Meyer's health.

All in all, some of this is Bibby Beane's fault for relying on unreliable commodities. Some of it is just bad luck. Some of it is the success cycle. You can't fault him too much for trading Mulder and Hudson and hoping that Chavez and Harden could carry them to relevance this season while waiting for the cavalry to come. He couldn't keep either one of them at the prices they'd bring in arbitration, and really couldn't afford to let them leave via free agency. It was time to turn the page and try to use those assets to shorten the rebuilding process. But that doesn't make this season's A's any easier to watch.

Marland Williams Report

2005-05-24T09:58:00.000-05:00

Marland Williams, OF. Arizona Diamondbacks
Drafted 1088th Overall (36th Rd), 2001 Draft, North Florida Community College
Bats R/Throws R
23 YO, 5'9", 175 lbs

Williams can absolutely fly. He's a Juan Pierre kind of center fielder, catching every fly ball hit within a couple area codes of him. He also has truly impressive skills on the basepaths. The problem is that he's a very mediocre hitter.

2004 El Paso: .257/.315/.390, 21 2B, 10 3B, 8 HR, 40 BB, 116 K, 48 SB, 8 CS, 487 AB
2005 Tennessee: .295/.362/.439, 7 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 15 BB, 34 K, 17 SB, 0 CS, 132 AB
mL Career: .268/.326/.375, 47 2B, 22 3B, 17 HR, 113 BB, 335 K, 173 SB, 22 CS, 1324 AB

Very little power, below average walk rate, above average strikeout rate, great base-stealing. That percentage is Beltran-like. He should at least end up as a AAA fixture. He could be useful as a 5th outfielder, especially for a team like the Yankees that needs a pinch runner for guys like Giambi, Martinez, and Posada, and also needs a defensive replacement in the outfield. He isn't likely to be a starter on the major league level. Think more Tike Redman than Juan Pierre here. There are a lot of guys like this floating around out there. Every once in a while, one of them (Doug Glanville, Tom Goodwin) gets in a manager's head and ends up starting for a couple years before fading into the obscurity from whence he came. Most of the time they end up like Kerry Robinson, having brief glimpses of playing time sprinkled through a career littered with AAA signposts and cups of coffee here and there.

ETA: 2006
2 Stars

I'm heading to Baltimore tomorrow morning, and will be there through the weekend. Have a nice week, everybody.

Todd Self Report

2005-05-23T07:59:00.000-05:00

Todd Self, 1B, Houston Astros
Drafted 457th Overall (15th Rd), 2000 Draft, Louisiana-Monroe
Bats L/Throws R
26 YO, 6'5", 215 lbs

If he was a speedy center fielder or a slick fielding shortstop, he'd be a huge asset, but instead he's a big first baseman and his lack of power kills him. He doesn't have the range to be a decent defensive outfielder, and doesn't have the chops to play third base. So he's limited to first base and DH, so he'll have to deal with being a bench bat or AAA regular.

2004 Round Rock: .315/.420/.460, 34 2B, 11 HR, 89 BB, 95 K, 476 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .302/.406/.433, 113 2B, 33 HR, 315 BB, 395 K, 1819 AB

Damn, I wish he had a little loft in his swing. If he did, he'd really be a nice second tier first baseman. He hits for average and draws a ton of walks. All that's missing is the threat of the long ball. Self is Ken Harvey with double the walk rate. As a platoon guy or a backup, that's great to have. I don't know if it is going happen though. In the era of 12 man pitching staffs, there just aren't as many bench spots as there should be.

Self got the callup when Jeff Bagwell went on the shelf. He's expected to split time with Mike Lamb at first base until Bagwell gets back. If Bagwell doesn't return, it's conceivable that Self could hit his way into a couple years of semi-regular duty as a poor man's Mark Grace. There are mitigating circumstances everywhere though, as Lance Berkman's knee makes him another option at first base and Lamb is a favorite of management. He has to hit really well to get a real chance. Even then, he shouldn't be on your fantasy baseball radar.

ETA: Now
3 Stars

Kevin Kouzmanoff Report

2005-05-21T08:48:00.000-05:00

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Cleveland Indians
Drafted 168th Overall (6th Rd), 2003 Draft, University of Nevada
Bats R/Throws R
23 YO, 6'1", 200 lbs

Kouzmanoff was a third round steal in 2003. He's been terrorizing pitchers in the lower minors ever since being drafted. He's old for his competition, but the numbers can't be ignored.

2004 Lake County: .330/.394/.529, 35 2B, 5 3B, 16 HR, 44 BB, 75 K, 473 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .309/.374/.498, 44 2B, 7 3B, 25 HR, 67 BB, 116 K, 703 AB

He's at it again, lighting up the Carolina League to the tune of .359/.411/.648 in his first 142 at bats. The only potential warning sign in the numbers is that his strikeout rate is up a tick this season. Overall though, he's always made good contact. He has more of a line drive bat than a real Mike Restovich kind of slugger's power. On the other hand, if doubles grow into home runs, then he might be in business. That goes to projection though, and it's something I'm uncertain about. Traditionally, late bloomers like Kouzmanoff have low ceilings, and while he doesn't look like a future MVP candidate, if he can turn some of those doubles into home runs, it could mean the difference between becoming Joe Randa with a shorter career and being something a bit more.

Kouzmanoff is reasonably athletic. He's an average defensive third baseman. He's also not a base stealing threat while not being a liability there either.

Kouzmanoff has to move quickly in order to have a real chance at a career, and he's in a good organization for that. He should make it up to AA by midseason, and at that point, Jake Gattreau is the next roadblock in his way. The Indians have suffered from injuries (Matt Whitney) and disappointment (Corey Smith) from their third base prospects in recent years. That's left them with the shell of Aaron Boone starting for them at the hot corner this season and Casey Blake being the alternative. The team moved Blake to the outfield though, after enduring some bad defense from him in 2004. So Kouzmanoff has open field ahead of him. If he can hold onto the hot bat he's carrying, his ceiling looks like Eric Hinske in one of his good years.

ETA: Late 2006/Early 2007
3 1/2 Stars

Chuck Tiffany Report

2005-05-20T14:15:00.000-05:00

Chuck Tiffany, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Drafted 61st Overall (2nd Rd), 2003 Draft, HS, Covina, CA
Bats L/Throws L
20 YO, 6'1", 200 lbs.

The Dodgers have probably done more to improve their farm system over the last few years than anybody, collecting a fleet of live arms and promising bats. Among the brigade of pitchers, Chuck Tiffany is my favorite. He has only average velocity on his fastball, but it has a lot of movement, and he compliments it with one of the nastier curveballs you're likely to see and a change that is already pretty good and could become another WMD. He has some issues with command both in the zone and in keeping it in the zone, but that's partly a function of his age and partly due to the fact that everything he throws has a wiggle in it. We've seen this problem with pitchers like Barry Zito and we've seen it at it's most extreme with Mike MacDougal. If he can harness that command, he could be a big star. He needs to work on keeping his delivery consistent and try to improve that command. It's really the most important thing he has in front of him.

2004 Columbus: 3.70 ERA, 141 K, 40 BB, 76 H, 11 HR, 100 IP
mL Career: 3.59 ERA, 183 K, 57 BB, 105 H, 13 HR, 133 IP

That career line includes the 2.59 ERA he's posted this season in 31 Florida State League innings. He's still walking a few more guys than I'd like, but his strikeout and hit rates still speak volumes about how filthy his stuff really is.

He's currently on the DL with a minor back issue. It's not supposed to be a long-term problem and the Dodgers are being cautious. There are some worries that he could gain weight. To fight that, the Dodgers have had him on a fitness routine.

It also bears mention that he started off last season on a tear as well. He threw a no-hitter and a perfect game in consecutive starts.

Bottom line, he has the stuff to be a star, but he's still a couple years away. His command is what is going to mean the difference between being a good #4 starter and being a Cy Young candidate. Oh, and as I'm contractually obligated to say, he also has to stay away from scalpels.

ETA: 2007
4 Stars

Draft Links

2005-05-19T19:37:00.000-05:00

Every year the draft gets more and more attention. It also gets easier and easier to get good information, though it is still in the dark compared to the NFL and NBA drafts. So here are some links to good draft related articles.

Sickels takes a look at some college hitters.

Baseball America has a range of features, such as a blog dealing with the latest news, a regularly updated mock draft, and regular news and notes indexed on their draft front page.

Finally, Bryan Smith of Baseball Analysts profiles the guys who will make the decisions (NL and AL).

Mike Morse Report

2005-05-19T18:31:00.000-05:00

Mike Morse, SS, Seattle Mariners
Drafted 82nd Overall (3rd Rd), 2000 Draft, HS, Ft Lauderdale, FL
Bats R/Throws R
23 YO, 6'4", 220 lbs

There is possibly no bigger enigma in the realm of prospects than Morse. He's a big, young shortstop with a promising bat, but there are questions about whether he's really a shortstop, he has a long-lived reputation as a headcase and trouble-maker. Any time you get suspended by 2 different organizations in a season, there's certainly a legitimate concern. I also have some questions about exactly HOW good his bat really will be.

2004 Birmingham: .287/.336/.536, 9 2B, 5 3B, 11 HR, 15 BB, 46 K, 209 AB
2004 San Antonio: .274/.326/.465, 10 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 9 BB, 27 K, 157 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .256/.313/.401, 92 2B, 16 3B, 35 HR, 106 BB, 323 K, 1576 AB

This doesn't look like an offensive track record that would hold up to a position switch very well, and unless the fast start at Birmingham portends a power spike, he might only go as far as to be an adequate offensive shortstop. He's following that trail this season, putting up a .265/.338/.419 line in his first 136 AAA at bats.

Regarding his defense, there are mixed messages out there. His range is questioned, but his hands and arm are good. He also has the size issue hanging over him. There aren't many guys that are first base-sized and can pull off being a middle infielder. The Mariners have every incentive to keep him at short for as long as possible since they have Adrian Beltre locked up to play third at Safeco until about 3 days after the sun swallows the earth. They also have a big hole at short since they foolishly traded away Carlos Guillen.

Monitor his progress, but be wary. He could wind up being anything from Jose Hernandez to Fernando Tatis to Wil Cordero.

ETA: ??
3 1/2 Stars

Ervin Santana Report

2005-05-18T13:00:00.000-05:00

Ervin Santana, P, Anaheim Angels
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 2000, Dominican Republic
Bats R/Throws R
22 YO, 6'2", 160 lbs

Santana got knocked around a little bit in his Major League debut last night. That's not completely unexpected. Quite a few players struggle in their first game. I didn't see the game itself, but on the SportsCenter highlights, every pitch they showed was a 94 MPH fastball. He also has a wicked slider and a changeup he's been working on for a couple years now.

A couple years ago, I was a huge Santana backer. After his 2002 performance in Rancho Cucamonga, where he struck out 130 with 36 walks in 125 innings, I was pretty excited. His 2003 season dampened my enthusiasm as he dealt with elbow problems through all that season and on into 2004.

2004 Arkansas: 3.30 ERA, 48 K, 18 BB, 41 H, 3 HR, 44 IP
pre-2005 mL Career: 3.60 ERA, 438 K, 161 BB, 354 H, 27 HR, 422 IP

The bottom line is health. If he can avoid the scalpel, he's a damned good pitching prospect, and could be used as either bait in a deadline deal to get the Halos more offensive help, or he could be a future replacement for Paul Byrd or some other Angels starter. I wouldn't rule out a move to the pen at some point either. He won't stick around this season, but barring injury, he has a future. Monitor what the Angels do with their rotation in the offseason. He could be a reasonable rookie of the year candidate for 2006. He could also be nursing a nice scar on his arm.

ETA: Late 2005/Early 2006
4 Stars

Oscar Robles Report

2005-05-17T17:48:00.000-05:00

Bumped because of new information

Oscar Robles, 2B/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Drafted 80th Overall (3rd Rd), 1994 Draft, HS, San Diego, CA
Bats L/Throws R
29 YO, 5'11", 155 lbs

Robles was purchased recently from Diablos Rojos del Mexico, or if you prefer, the Mexico City Red Devils of the Mexican Summer League. The fee is rumored to be well into 6 figures. Since he's spent most of his career in the Mexican and independent leagues, data on him is hard to find at this point, especially if you don't speak spanish, which I don't.

Here's what I can find so far. He was drafted by the Astros out of high school. The next reference I can find is that he was in spring training with San Diego in 2003 before being sent back to Mexico. He hit .382/.473/.552 in 335 at bats. He hit 23 doubles, 5 triples, and 8 home runs. The stat line that I have is partial, so at best, I can estimate that he drew approximately 60 walks in that sample. That's not bad at all. Anytime you can hit for that high an average, rap some extra base hits, and draw walks in approximately 15 percent of your plate appearances, you're doing pretty well. He also played some very good defense at both second and third. This offseason, the Dodgers brought him into spring training, but ended up sending him back.

In light of LA's woes at the hot corner, they were desperate to bring in more bodies that can cover the position. They may even think they have a sleeper. I don't know.

It is hard to put his Mexican League numbers in context. On one hand, the Mexican Summer League is a high level league, and if you can hit there, you can just flat hit. On the other hand, Mexico City has an elevation of 7400 feet above sea level, so park effects are almost certainly messing with his numbers. Given this information, the Dodgers don't have a star. They probably have a capable utility infielder who can play some defense and be a reasonable contact hitter. He won't likely hit for much power, though he might draw some walks. Don't pick him up for your fantasy team, but keep an eye on their box scores.

ETA: Now
2 Stars, though with incomplete information muddying the picture.

Update: Baseball Prospects casts more light on his backstory in today's Prospectus Triple Play.

As a backup to Edwards the Dodgers can use Olmedo Saenz--not really convincing as a third baseman but passable in an emergency--and Oscar Robles. Robles is an interesting example of the advantages of scouting international teams in places like the Mexican League. A Tijuana native who prepped in San Diego, Robles was drafted as a shortstop by Houston in 1994 and made it all the way to Triple-A for three games in 1997. He was intractably stuck in the depth chart behind Carlos Guillen and Julio Lugo, and when a badly dislocated ankle caused him to miss all of 1999 he was released by the Astros. Robles hooked up with the Mexican League in 2000, where he posted a cumulative line of .334/.429/.380 in his five years there. He joined the Dodgers in spring training this year and hit a robust .438/.514/.563 in 32 at-bats. Again, as with Edwards, the lack of power is concerning and could be exposed by the tougher pitchers in the major leagues, but for a backup shortstop/third baseman, a reasonable batting average with some plate discipline should be useful.

Alex Graman Report

2005-05-17T13:08:00.000-05:00

Alex Graman, LHP, New York Yankees
Drafted 111th Overall (3rd Rd), 1999 Draft, Indiana State
Bats L/Throws L
27 YO, 6'4", 210 lbs

Despite his being outrighted to Columbus in spring training, I think Graman's still a prospect and could still be an asset to the Yanks. He uses a 4 pitch Major League quality arsenal, featuring a low 90's fastball. His out pitch is a splitter, and he compliments it with pretty good change and slider. He has enough control to keep from killing himself with the walk, but he doesn't have the command it takes to really use his stuff and make it work like he wants it to. As a result, he's quickly becoming a AAAA guy.

He had a bit of an unexpected breakout in 2004. He posted his best numbers in quite a while. This season he's doing fairly well, but not outstanding. He has a pedestrian 4.02 ERA, but good peripherals (37 K, 14 BB, 40 IP). He could very well be an effective pitcher in the bigs, but the ceiling is really low. Middle reliever/5th starter is what you're looking at here.

2004 Columbus: 3.37 ERA, 129 K, 53 K, 135 H, 12 HR, 131 IP
pre-2005 mL Career: 3.81 ERA, 705 K, 305 BB, 811 H, 39 HR, 843 IP

You've heard me talk about how the Yankees have no trust in or taste for players who aren't already established in the majors or don't hit the ground running. It takes a really special circumstance to warrant patience in the Bronx. Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang both look like they might stick around, but it took the Yanks worst month in a decade or more and some major injuries and ineffectiveness by veteran players to even warrant a chance to begin with. Graman blew his chance by getting bombed in his 5 ML innings last season. If he gets a chance to be in the show, it will probably be in a different uniform. But you knew that already.

I'd like to use this as an opportunity to get off on a rant. Graman seems to me like he would be a good candidate to fill the old swingman role that most teams have eliminated from the roster. You really don't see many long relievers anymore. They've been replaced by specialists and fifth starters. Some of them have become fifth starters. Some are wasting value being a one inning bullpen guy. I love the one inning killer as much as anybody. If you're up by one in the 8th and your starter is getting fatigued, nothing is better than having a Joe Nathan or Francisco Rodriguez, who will get you to the end of the game without allowing so much as a baserunner. And I like LOOGY's and ROOGY's and sidearmers and submariners, but what happens in the 2 dozen times a year when your starter has to leave before the 6th inning? You have 7 man bullpens, but only one of them can go more than a couple innings. If your starter leaves in the 2nd inning after being hit in the foot with a comebacker, the pen is going to be spent for 2 or 3 days at least.

Guys like Graman, Mike Wood, and Justin Duchscherer are handy to have around for just this reason. Most of the time, teams don't really need a 5th starter and you have guys going every 6th day. If you have 2 of these guys around, you can cover the days where you need another starter, and you can give yourself a decent mop-up man, or long reliever, or emergency starter. They can be the swiss army knives of a pitching staff, but everybody seems to want to carry around a trunk full of tools instead. So here's what I say, take the Horatio Ramirezes of the world and turn them into swingmen. Get 2 of them, 4 starters, 3 traditional power relievers (closer and 2 setup men), a LOOGY, and a ROOGY, and use the extra roster spot to carry around another bench bat, like Mike Ryan or Jon Knott. Not lugging around a 12th pitcher could yield a real tactical advantage for your offense late in games, and you wouldn't give up much of anything in the pitching staff. You still have your specialists and your one inning guys (though I'm also a proponent of giving closers and set up men 2 innings a lot more often that what they are usually given these days). You'd probably even benefit from the extra innings that your top 4 starters would pick up in the exchange.

ETA: Whenever somebody digs him up
2 1/2 Stars

Nate McLouth Report

2005-05-16T05:08:00.000-05:00

Nate McLouth, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Drafted 749th Overall (25th Rd), 2000 Draft, HS, Whitehall, MI
Bats L/Throws R
23 YO, 5'11", 185 lbs

Here's a really underrated prospect. This is what happens when you take a dirty uniform hustle guy and inject some skills in him. He's a little undersized, but he's got a decent bat, can play all three outfield positions pretty well, is a good baserunner, and generally just knows what the hell he's doing out there.

2004 Altoona: .322/.384/.462, 40 2B, 8 HR, 48 BB, 62 K, 31 SB, 7 CS, 509 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .291/.368/.433, 107 2B, 35 HR, 187 BB, 232 K, 112 SB, 1699 AB

That's a very well-rounded package of skills. He isn't a knockout in any one area, but he does a little bit of everything. Average, gap power, walks, steals, and he even steals bases at a high percentage. Would I like to see more home runs? Of course, but it wouldn't keep him from being a good player.

This year, he's playing here in Indy and I've already mentioned him already in my game reports. Here's what I said about him.

Nate McLouth batted second for the Indians both nights. I need to do a full report on him since he looks tailor made for a 4th outfielder role. He's a lefty swinging guy with a nice all around game that isn't going to blow you away. He makes contact, draws enough walks, steals some bases, and plays a pretty good outfield. He played left tonight, but he can play some center and has enough arm to pass for a right fielder if needed. With Rich Thompson and Ray Sadler, they should have an outfield with a lot of range this year.

All of that looks pretty good. My opinion hasn't changed. He still looks like he may be a great 4th outfielder. Looking at how hard up the Pirates are for a center fielder, I think he may be a decent answer for that problem. He's a lot better than Tike Redman offensively. His upside would look a lot like what Brady Clark is doing this year. That's his ceiling though. He could just end up being Ricky Ledee.

ETA: Mid/Late 2005
3 1/2 Stars

Sunday Morning Notes and Links

2005-05-15T10:06:00.000-05:00

First off, congrats to friend of TYBITF, Kevin Agee, who has maintained Kevin's Royal Blog for quite some time now. He's been picked up by All-Baseball.com for their new Royals blog Kauffman Confidential.

Secondly, I like the fact that ESPN is carrying some regular season college baseball games. I've caught some intermittent action in a couple of games, but I haven't watched an entire game for a variety of reasons. BTW...I hope Dish Network picks up ESPNU soon.

Third, as a Royals fan I feel I have to comment on this. Now I have no idea whether the Royals really are thinking of cutting financial corners on the second overall pick and bypassing Justin Upton/Alex Gordon in favor of a budget pick, but if they are, I'd caution them not to. The draft is the best way to get top notch talent if you're a small market team, and you're really shooting yourself in the foot if you ignore talent to go with the cheaper alternative or to draft to positional need. Allard Baird is smart enough to know this, and I can't imagine that this would make him very happy. If they do this, then they make it very clear that the health of the franchise is a secondary concern and turning a short term profit is the important thing.

Inspired by John Sickels, I do a yearly version of the draft where I mirror KC's picks, taking the players I would have taken. I started out just doing 1 or 2 rounds. At this point, I usually do a full 50 round effort. Some of my picks look really good right now, such as taking Michael Aubrey instead of Chris Lubanski, or taking Dustin Pedroia last year, or Casey Kotchman instead of Colt Griffin. But most of the time, I've at least understood the logic behind the pick and haven't criticized them too severely (Griffin is an exception as I blasted the pick early and often). I understood why they took Billy Butler instead of my choice, Josh Fields. I understood why they took JP Howell, Matt Campbell, and Billy Buckner. I can not forgive them if they pass on Gordon to take a guy that might someday turn into Khalil Greene when they might even be able to get that same player in the second round. It's bush league. And if it happens, then tune into this space because I'll be absolutely toxic.

And with that, I'm leaving for the day. I leave for the track in a couple hours to watch qualifications for our little local car race. Tune in tomorrow for the Nate McLouth report.

John-Ford Griffin Report

2005-05-15T07:28:00.000-05:00

John-Ford Griffin, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Drafted 23rd Overall, 2001 Draft, Florida State
Bats L/Throws L
25 YO, 6'2", 215 lbs

Before the season I was ready to throw in the towel on Griffin. In fact, my patience is still growing thin. He's just been underachieving for so long. His batting average drug down his numbers last year behind a pretty high strikeout rate. He's never had the season he was supposed to have when he was drafted. However, he's off to a good start for Toronto, batting .300 with his usual above average walk rate, and some power. But the strikeouts are still pretty high, which makes me wonder whether he's getting a little hit-lucky. Then again, maybe last year he was a little unlucky.

2004 New Hampshire: .248/.330/.454, 28 2B, 22 HR, 56 BB, 128 K, 467 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .274/.358/.446, 87 2B, 48 HR, 182 BB, 315 K, 1407 AB

He's pretty much a DH, and has been treated as such by Syracuse. He can play left, but he's not particularly good at it. He doesn't have speed on the basepaths, so what he's going to give you is limited to his bat.

I think he's better than he was last year, but not quite as good as he's been thus far this year. That makes him a platoon LF/DH. He might find his way onto a big league bench sometime in the next year or two, but I don't see him developing into a starter at this point.

ETA: Late 2005/Early 2006
3 Stars

Franklin Gutierrez Report

2005-05-14T09:05:00.000-05:00

Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Cleveland Indians
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 2000, Venezuela
Bats R/Throws R
22 YO, 6'2", 175 lbs

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to make of Gutierrez's first 100 at bats of 2005. The toolsy kid has always been plagued by bad plate discipline, but he's had power and the ability to hit for average. So this year he starts the year drawing walks, but the power and average have been pretty sketchy. I know the Indians have been working on his selectivity and pitch recognition skills. I wonder if this is a kind of adjustment he's going through on the way to being a more complete player. On the other hand, this might be a symptom that he's come unglued and is taking too many strikes. Or this could be the sample size demons screwing with us again.

2004 Akron: .302/.372/.466, 24 2B, 5 HR, 23 BB, 77 K, 262 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .283/.346/.468, 92 2B, 46 HR, 118 BB, 350 K, 1386 AB

He's the kind of natural athlete who usually either turns into a star or a crushing disappointment. He's a great defensive outfielder with speed, range, and a good arm. He can run the bases. And he smacked 72 extra base hits as a 20 year old between the Florida State and Southern Leagues.

If the improvement in his plate discipline is for real, and he gets back to hitting for power and average, he's one of the best prospects in the Indians organization. If his walk rate is a sample size fluke or if he doesn't get back the juice of previous seasons, then he's not. One thing that could worry people is the strikeout rate. His 2004 K rate was pretty high, and 2005 isn't much better.

If you're looking for comps, then look at Magglio Ordonez as a best case and Alex Escobar would be a worst case. Usually I give a middle ground with these comps, but I'm drawing a bit of a blank.

ETA: Mid/Late 2006
3 1/2 Stars

Dan Johnson Report

2005-05-12T13:34:00.000-05:00

Dan Johnson, 1B, Oakland Athletics
Drafted 221st Overall (7th Rd), 2001 Draft, University of Nebraska
Bats L/Throws R
25 YO, 6'2", 220 lbs

I'm a little stunned that I've been reviewing prospects here for 8 months now and I'm just now getting around to talking about Johnson. He's the epitome of the kind of prospect I like to talk about. He's a freaking hitter. He hits for power, average, draws walks. What the hell else is there that you want your first baseman to do? Oh, alright. Yeah, it would be nice if had Scott Hatteberg's glove. And adding another lefty bat to Oakland's lineup would seem to be the picture of redundancy. And he doesn't have quite the offensive ceiling that you see with Prince Fielder or Daric Barton, but he's still clearly a Major League hitter right now. And it would be nice if he had the ability to run the basepaths like Derrek Lee or Jeff Bagwell in his prime, but not every car is a convertible with a V8. There's nothing wrong with having a couple with a sunroof and V6, especially with gas prices the way they are today.

2004 Sacramento: .299/.403/.534, 29 2B, 5 3B, 29 HR, 89 BB, 93 K, 536 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .292/.377/.511, 94 2B, 12 3B, 88 HR, 241 BB, 325 K, 1751 AB

Thus far the reigning PCL MVP is picking up right where he left off, posting a .313/.407/.539 line in his first 128 at bats. He has more walks than strikeouts. And the Rivercats have won 5 in a row. Meanwhile, the A's offense has absolutely cratered. Hatteberg and Durazo are hitting like third string catchers. You see where I'm going with this, right? It's only a matter of time before Johnson becomes a fixture in Billy Beane's lineup. When he gets there, don't expect 45 home runs a season, but 25-35 per year with a decent average, and enough walks to make a good on base percentage. Among BP's list of most comparables are Mo Vaughn and David Ortiz, who probably count as his upside, Pete LaCock, who has a funny name and constitutes a worst case, and Paul Sorrento, who looks like good middle ground to me.

ETA: Past Due
4 Stars

Mark Woodyard Report

2005-05-11T12:24:00.000-05:00

Mark Woodyard, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Drafted 108th Overall (4th Rd), 2000 Draft, Bethune-Cookman
Bats R/Throws R
26 YO, 6'2", 195 lbs

I like the description of Woodyard better than the reality. He's a durable reliever who's a good athlete. He has velocity with a low 90's fastball. He also has a splitter and slider to go with it. He has reasonable control and he hasn't been prone to the homer.

2004 Erie: 3.52 ERA, 55 K, 37 BB, 102 H, 102 IP
pre-2005 mL Career: 4.76 ERA, 289 K, 235 BB, 525 H, 491 IP

The problem is that he doesn't miss enough bats. I just can't buy that he'll be a quality major league reliever when he doesn't strike out 5 batters per 9 innings. The only kind of pitcher that I would make an exception for would be a knuckleballer or some kind of extreme groundball machine with a 93 MPH sinker.

Thus far in 2005, his chickens have come home to roost. Woodyard is getting hammered in Toledo, with a 7.07 ERA and 19 hits allowed in 14 innings. The sample size is tiny, but this isn't a big surprise. International League hitters are very good, and if you can't use your stuff to keep them from putting the ball in play, they'll kill you.

Woodyard is on the 40 man roster, and if the Tigers lose many relievers, you could see Woodyard in Comerica, where things could get really ugly. On the other hand, with his long history of mediocre ratios, the Tigers could very well outright him and not worry about losing him. His ceiling is your average middle reliever.

ETA: Late this year
1 1/2 Stars

Jack Cust Report

2005-05-10T13:30:00.000-05:00

Jack Cust, OF, Oakland Athletics
Drafted 30th Overall, 1997 Draft, HR, Flemington, NJ
Bats L/Throws R
26 YO, 6'1", 230 lbs

There are certain things that just feel inevitable. Billy Beane acquiring Cust is one of those things. You just knew that sooner or later this guy would end up in the A's organization. He's not on the major league roster though. At this point, it looks like his detractors were right. His swing was too long and he has a lot of problems with breaking balls. He's also still an awful outfielder. We know what to expect from him at this point. He'll strike out a lot, he'll draw a ton of walks, and he'll hit some bombs.

2004 Ottawa: .235/.358/.433, 15 2B, 17 HR, 65 BB, 127 K, 344 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .289/.429/.522, 189 2B, 142 HR, 665 BB, 927 K, 2786 AB
MLB Career: .220/.331/.390, 9 2B, 5 HR, 23 BB, 58 K, 141 AB

It's not hopeless. Rob Stratton retooled his swing and his approach last season and ended up having a huge breakthrough with Louisville. If Cust can pull off something similar, he might finally start to live up to the lofty expectations us statheads set him up with back in 2000-2002. It isn't strong evidence, but thus far he's showing some signs of life in 2005. He's hitting .313/.407/583 with Sacramento. If he does manage to maintain those numbers, he could be a pretty good bat to have in a left field or DH platoon. You could easily compare him to a kind of Matt Stairs for the next half decade, only with a little bit more extreme skill set on offense.

ETA: N/A
2 1/2 Stars

Jeremy West Report

2005-05-10T12:56:00.000-05:00

Jeremy West, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Drafted 204th Overall (7th Rd), 2003 Draft, Arizona State
Bats R/Throws R
23 YO, 6'0", 200 lbs

West is a stereotypical mid-round college draft pick. He can hit, but he looks more like a guy whose ceiling is decent everyday player, not star. He played more catcher than anything else in college, and he's not an asset at first base and doesn't have the speed to play an outfield corner. His only real skill is that he can hit for power, average, and draw enough walks to keep from being an OBP liability. One thing we know for sure is that he can hit minor league pitchers, because he's done nothing but hit since he was drafted and he isn't stopping yet, as he currently has a .324/.393/.476 line at Portland.

2004 Sarasota: .293/.347/.488, 28 2B, 18 HR, 37 BB, 83 K, 461 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .288/.355/.455, 45 2B, 22 HR, 68 BB, 135 K, 725 AB

At the very least he looks like a future AAA all star. If he gets a chance in the show, he'll probably be something like Josh Phelps without the oversized expectations. If he were 2 years younger, I'd be a lot more excited.

On a side note, this Portland team looks pretty good. In the pitching staff, they have Jon Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, and David Pauley. On the field, they have West, Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, David Murphy, and Brandon Moss. That's a lot of prospects. If you happen to be in Maine...

ETA: Late 2006
3 Stars

Ubaldo Jimenez Report

2005-05-09T05:05:00.000-05:00

Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 2001, Dominican Republic
Bats R/Throws R
21 YO, 6'4", 200 lbs

Jimenez was in the middle of a breakout season when the Rockies shelved him last year with a stress fracture in his shoulder blade. No, I'm not sure how a pitcher can do that either. He's a power pitcher, pumping mid 90's gas with a quality curve and a good change. The biggest improvement in 2004 was his control. His walk rate improved dramatically from 2003.

2004 Visalia: 2.23 ERA, 61 K, 12 BB, 29 H, 1 HR, 44 IP
pre-2005 mL Career: 3.91 ERA, 271 K, 109 BB, 233 H, 18 HR, 265 IP

He started this season back in the California League with the Rox new affiliate in Modesto. He's doing pretty well, with a 3.42 ERA and well over a strikeout per inning, but his control has slipped a little if his small sample size is to be believed. He's walked 14 batters in 26 innings. If his command returns, he's a premium prospect. If he keeps walking this many men, he's a promising arm with a big flaw.

ETA: Early 2007
3 1/2 Stars

Ricky Nolasco Report

2005-05-08T11:51:00.000-05:00

Ricky Nolasco, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Drafted 108th Overall (4th Rd), 2001 Draft, HS, Rialto, CA
Bats R/Throws R
22 YO, 6'1", 205 lbs

Continuing with the fast start crew, Nolasco is blowing away Southern League batters in his second go-around in the circuit. He did pretty well last year at West Tennessee, so I was a little surprised when I saw he was back in AA. He works mostly with two pitches, a curve and a sinking fastball that operates mostly in the low 90's.

2004 West Tenn: 3.70 ERA, 115 K, 37 BB, 104 H, 13 HR, 107 IP
2004 Iowa: 9.30 ERA, 28 K, 37 BB, 68 H, 7 HR, 40 IP
pre-2005 mL Career: 3.62 ERA, 394 K, 131 BB, 384 H, 28 HR, 405 IP

Nolasco currently has an ERA just over 1 with more than a strikeout per inning and a good walk rate. His BABIP is a lot low than it was last season, so the ERA is a little padded by good luck, but it's still quite obvious that he's overqualified for the level. He should be in the PCL. Given his age, I like his chances for a real career. I'm not entirely sure whether he'll spend most of that career in the middle of somebody's rotation or in the bullpen, but I think he'll be good (eventually) whichever it may be. I think he may take a couple of years of bouncing back and forth between Iowa and Wrigley before he get there to stay, and I don't think he's a star waiting to happen. Nevertheless, he's a good addition to the stable of prospects that the Cubs have. The way they're going through pitchers under Dusty Baker, the Cubs may need him sooner rather than later.

ETA: Early/Mid 2006
3 1/2 Stars

Brandon Wood Report

2005-05-08T10:47:00.000-05:00

Brandon Wood, SS, Anaheim Angels
Drafted 23rd Overall, 2003 Draft, HS, Scottsdale, AZ
Bats R/Throws R
20 YO, 6'3", 200 lbs

Brian Roberts isn't the only middle infielder on a power trip. Wood is on an absolute tear in the California League, already posting a new career high in home runs, slugging over .700 for Rancho Cucamonga. While some of this is part effects and sample size, most of it is probably real progress. He came into the season with a good offensive reputation and some numbers to back it up. He has a high power ceiling, a nice swing, and the ability to make a lot of hard contact.

His defense is average. There's speculation that he could be forced to third as he fills out and loses quickness, but at this point, everybody's aware of the value of big bats that can simply do the job at short without embarrassing themselves. The Halos have a number of other good shortstops, with the Aybar/Callaspo duo at Arkansas, Orlando Cabrera and Mazier Izturis, and Sean Rodriguez at Cedar Rapids. At third base, they have Dallas McPherson. At second, they have Howie Kendrick. There's a real traffic jam waiting to happen. How the Angels handle these players will go a long way towards determining how the team's current upswing lasts.

2004 Cedar Rapids: .251/.322/.404, 30 2B, 5 3B, 11 HR, 46 BB, 117 K, 21 SB, 5 CS, 478 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .263/.331/.426, 51 2B, 9 3B, 16 HR, 66 BB, 180 K, 25 SB, 6 CS, 718 AB

His biggest problem thus far is plate discipline, which is a bit below average. You can get him out on sliders in the dirt or fastballs out of the zone. The new season really hasn't helped this much as his walk and strikeout rates are in line with his career averages. The question becomes how this fast start affects his prospect grade. The sample size is small enough that you can't bump him up to the Joel Guzman class of shortstop prospects, but it's large enough that you can't ignore it completely, especially when it we've been half expecting a breakout like this sometime in the near future.

ETA: 2007
4 Stars

Mike Jones Report

2005-05-07T08:08:00.000-05:00

Mike Jones, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Drafted 12th Overall, 2001 Draft, HS, Phoenix, AZ
Bats R/Throws R
22 YO, 6'4", 200 lbs

Jones is out for 2005 with labrum surgery, but even before that I was never a big fan. I just never saw the hype. When he's healthy, he sports a low 90's fastball and a curve, but he's always walked far too many hitters for my tastes.

2004 Huntsville: 4.18 ERA, 16 K, 13 BB, 22 H, 24 IP
mL Career: 3.03 ERA, 243 K, 132 BB, 273 H, 294 IP

So that's your big story. He has good strikeout and hit rates, but you just can't be a successful major league starter when you walk 4 men every 9 innings. It just doesn't work that way unless you strike out enough guys to never give up a hit. I don't care if he did put up really good ERA's in 2002 and 2003.

The control problems and injury combine to put his prospect credentials on the rocks. He has a lot of work to do even if he comes back at full strength.

ETA: ??
2 Stars

Eddy Martinez-Esteve

2005-05-06T11:40:00.000-05:00

Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, San Francisco Giants
Drafted 70th Overall (2nd Rd), 2004 Draft, Florida State
Bats R/Throws R
21 YO, 6'2", 215 lbs

Martinez-Esteve, or EME for short, was one of my favorite prospects going into the draft. Judged on talent alone, he should have been drafted in the middle of the first round. However, slipped in the draft due to some concerns about signability and his indifferent defense. Because of his hitting and his defense, he's drawn natural comparisons to Manny Ramirez. I'm surprised we don't see that as a comp more often. Different types of pitchers are commonly compared to Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Randy Johnson depending on what they look like and how they go about getting hitters out. You read a lot of references to Jeter, Beltran, ARod, and even the odd invocation of Eric Chavez any time you have a lefty third baseman with some power and a nice swing. There are plenty of outfielder who can hit for power and average, but aren't particularly good with the glove, even on an outfield corner, but you never hear Manny's name being mentioned. That strikes me as a bit odd.

As you have gathered, EME is a good hitter. He sported a 1.164 OPS as a junior at FSU and kept on hitting as a pro. He isn't a very good fielder, having below average range, a below average arm, mediocre hands, and no pronounced desire to improve his defense to a point where he's an asset in the field. He also has some injuries in college, as he underwent shoulder surgery and also pulling a hamstring. He's a born DH if there ever was one. In the NL, the Giants would probably want to hide him in left. In fact he's being billed as the eventual successor to Barry Bonds out there.

2004 mL Season: .329/.399/.470, 14 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 18 BB, 26 K, 164 AB

I lumped all of his 2004 minor league stops into one line because he played in 4 different leagues, ranging from the Arizona Rookie League to the California League. He's off to a fast start in 2005 back where he ended 2004. He's hitting for power and average and drawing walks like they're going out of style. He should get the call to Jacksonville soon if he keeps this up, which I have no reason to doubt he can do. He's a hitter in a hitter's league. For fantasy owners in keeper leagues with minor league reserve rosters, he's a solid guy to either go out and get now, or watch closely, depending on the depth of your league and your roster.

ETA: Late 2006/Early 2007
4 Stars

Sean Henn Report

2005-05-05T14:54:00.000-05:00

Sean Henn, LHP, New York Yankees
Drafted 788th Overall (26th Rd), 2000 Draft, McLennan (TX) JC
Bats R/Throws L
24 YO, 6'5", 215 lbs

The Yankees are a mess right now. Their rotation is aging and afflicted with injuries and ineffectiveness. Their lineup is underperforming despite a massive monetary investment. And their defense is on record as the worst in baseball. A good measure of how far they gave a spot start to Henn where he got pounded. A month ago, most in the mainstream media would have thought it impossible for the Yankees to be desperate enough to hand the ball to a prospect as anonymous as Henn. They were talking about how invisible the 200 million dollar roster was. I know that it's common courtesy of the media to gladhand whenever possible, but the sheer lack of critical thought was appalling in my opinion. I really heard someone on Baseball Tonight say that this was possibly the best rotation ever.

Henn is a reasonable prospect who was pushed into a difficult situation. He gets into the mid 90's with his fastball, though the velocity has waxed and waned over the course of his career. He also has a slider that show promise, but is still be all means a work in progress. He's better suited for the bullpen at this point, but the Yankees need a starter, so he'll continue to be pressed into service in the rotation until they find another pitcher to shoehorn in there or until they get the Big Unit back from the disabled list. In the interim, he'll continue to plod along as best he can. The Yankees defense won't be particularly helpful in his cause. He'd be better served finding a place in the Columbus rotation or in the Bronx bullpen.

2004 Trenton: 4.41 ERA, 118 K, 63 BB, 173 H, 11 HR, 136 IP
mL Career: 3.94 ERA, 229 K, 118 BB, 273 H, 18 HR, 286 IP

His command is shaky and he was very hitable last season. His strikeout totals are acceptable, but not commendable. All in all, he's a very mediocre prospect as a starter. Move him to the bullpen, and I have a feeling his weaknesses could be sufficiently covered up to be at least a passable reliever. Fantasy owners should stay far away for now, and until he either enters the chase to be somebody's closer or figures out how to command his pitches better and avoid bats.

ETA: Ready or not, he's here...for now
2 1/2 Stars

Gavin Floyd Report

2005-05-04T01:02:00.000-05:00

Gavin Floyd, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Drafted 4th Overall, 2001 Draft, HS, Baltimore, MD
Bats R/Throws R
22 YO, 6'5", 210 lbs

Floyd has been a big name prospect ever since being drafted. He was the classic coveted high school pitching prospect. He threw hard, had a breaking ball already, was tall and thin, allowing scouts to dream about how much velocity he would add when he grew bigger and stronger, and he dominated high school hitters. He's never really disappointed, putting up good strikeout totals and ERA's, and he still has the respect of scouts and prospect fans alike. But he's never had those numbers that Jeff Francis put up last season, or that Josh Beckett put up in 2001. You know these kinds of numbers, the ones that have ridiculous sub-2 ERA's with well over a strikeout per 9 and hardly any walks. These numbers leap off the page (or computer screen) at you and tell you pretty clearly that this guy has no business being at this level since he makes everybody else look like second rate high schoolers.

He also hasn't packed on that velocity that the Phillies expected. They thought he'd end up in the mid 90's, but he's still at the point where he usually sits at 90-92 with occasional spikes landing at 94. His curve is impressive, but he also doesn't throw it consistently for strikes. He has improved his changeup a lot, but it isn't a true out pitch. He needs to tighten his command on all three pitches.

2004 Reading: 2.57 ERA, 94 K, 46 BB, 93 H, 5 HR, 119 IP
2004 Scranton: 4.99 ERA, 18 K, 9 BB, 39 H, 4 HR, 30 IP
2004 Philadelphia: 3.49 ERA, 24 K, 16 BB, 25 H, 1 HR, 28 IP
Pre-2005 mL Career; 2.94 ERA, 367 K, 164 BB, 379 H, 31 HR, 453 IP

I thought Baseball Prospectus hit the nail on the head this offseason.

While Floyd is plenty young and will have the opportunity to improve the finer points of his pitching-his curve might induce more strikeouts, for example, if he learns how to set it up better-there's also the chance that he winds up like Jon Garland, a merely competent pitcher who is perennially on the verge of a breakout that never comes.

Now we may actually be witnessing the Jon Garland breakout, 3 or 4 years after we first expected it to happen. His 2005 success certainly would color how we view the comparison.

I have mixed feelings about Floyd. He looks to me at this point to be a mid-rotation guy, but there's that hint that if he improves his command a bit, he can ride into stardom. My recommendation is that owners in one year leagues and shallow keeper leagues keep an eye on him, but don't bite unless he strings together a few good starts. In deep keeper leagues, he's worth a flier and a spot on the bench. If you're looking for a potential stud in the Phillies farm system, Cole Hamels is still your guy. Floyd is a much safer bet to be a solid major leaguer, but if he stays healthy and avoids outright stupidity from here on out, Hamels has a chance to be much better. That's a heck of a qualifier though.

ETA: Currently on the Philly/Scranton-Wilkes Barre Shuttle Service
4 Stars

Brian Bannister Report

2005-05-03T12:08:00.000-05:00

Brian Bannister, RHP, New York Mets
Drafted 199th Overall (7th Rd), 2003 Draft, USC
Bats R/Throws R
23 YO, 6'1", 205 lbs

Bannister is another guy without great stuff, but who uses control, changing speeds, and an assortment of breaking stuff to keep hitters off balance. He's off to a blistering start with Binghamton, posting an ERA of 0.33 with more than a strikeout per inning over his first 27 frames.

2004 St Lucie: 4.32 ERA, 106 K, 27 BB, 111 H, 6 HR, 110 IP
2004 Binghamton: 4.06 ERA, 28 K, 17 BB, 45 H, 2 HR, 44 IP
pre-2005 mL Career: 3.77 ERA, 176 K, 62 BB, 183 H, 8 HR, 201 IP

He's climbed the ladder pretty quickly coming out of college, but this kind of pitcher sometimes takes a while to catch up to advanced hitters. Some of them just aren't effective. Without reading too much into a small sample, I have to say that if he keeps on dominating the Eastern League, then his 2004 stint in Binghamton may have been a simple adjustment period.

Bannister throws his fastball at about 90 MPH, has recently added a "cut" version to add movement, also has a slider, curve, and a change. The curve carries the most promise of being a feature attraction, but at this point, it's his most unreliable offering. If he can throw it for strikes, then his chances of being a quality major leaguer improves a lot. Even if it does become an out pitch, sometimes guys like this work out, sometimes they don't. The ceiling is pretty low as he'd be at best an innings sponge.

ETA: Early/Mid 2006
3 1/2 Stars

Dallas Braden Report

2005-05-02T07:17:00.000-05:00

Dallas Braden, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Drafted 727th Overall (24th Rd), 2004 Draft, Texas Tech
Bats L/Throws L
21 YO, 6'1", 180 lbs

Huston Street isn't the only A's pitcher drafted in 2004 who is advancing quickly. Braden has emerged from the obscurity of the 24th round to now down California League hitters left and right. To do this, he uses a fastball the ranges in the high 80's, a pretty good change, and a lethal screwball.

2004 Vancouver: 2.76 ERA, 26 K, 3 BB, 15 H, 1 HR, 16 IP
2004 Kane County: 4.70 ERA, 33 K, 6 BB, 22 H, 2 HR, 23 IP
2004 Total: 3.89 ERA, 59 K, 9 BB, 37 H, 3 HR, 39 IP

He's currently sporting a 3.14 ERA with 42 K's, 7 walks, and 24 hits allowed in 28 innings for Stockton, which looks pretty consistent with his 2004 numbers. If you were curious, he put up a mediocre ERA at Texas Tech, but with good ratios.

At this point, he's just a set of data points, and there isn't a whole lot of data to go on. I haven't seen his delivery or his approach. There also aren't many scouting reports out there to go on. I can't give a strong buy recommendation yet. He has promise, but a wait and see approach may be more appropriate. If he keeps up this pace, he should get a trial in AA later this season. Towards the end of 2005, we'll have a much better idea of whether he can keep this up.

Some people worry about the screwball and injury risks. I'm not sure if any one pitch in particular is more likely to injure a pitcher who throws it. The slider gets this reputation too. It's something worth keeping an eye on, but I'm not going to dock somebody's grade because of it.

ETA: 2007
3 Stars

Mitch Maier Report

2005-05-01T05:16:00.000-05:00

It ended up that it wasn't only internet problems that shelved me this weekend. I also developed a monster head cold that still has me feeling horrible. I'm not sure why I decided to go work this morning, but I'm starting to regret the decision.

Mitch Maier, 3B/OF, Kansas City Royals
Drafted 30th Overall, 2003 Draft, Toledo
Bats L/Throws R
22 YO, 6'2", 200 lbs

I liked Maier a lot going into the 2003 draft. I liked the idea that my favorite team would draft a catcher with a good lefty bat. When they announced that they were preemptively moving him to third base, I criticized the decision. They did it because Maier's defense was questioned by scouts and he had a lot more athleticism than anybody expects from a catcher. They were pegging him as a bit of a Jason Werth comp. My philosophy would have probably been to play him there until he proves he can't do it.

Well, after the move to third, his defense stunk. He never could get the footwork down and he committed tons of errors and didn't demonstrate much range. This season, they're using him in right field.

2004 Wilmington: .264/.326/.391, 9 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 15 BB, 29 K, 9 SB, 2 CS, 170 AB
2004 Burlington: .300/.354/.432, 24 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 27 BB, 51 K, 34 SB, 10 CS, 317 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .305/.361/.444, 47 2B, 11 3B, 9 HR, 60 BB, 105 K, 51 SB, 15 CS, 690 AB

He's in the California League, where he started off sizzling hot. He's cooled down a bit, to the point where his .318/.375/.506 line looks like a natural progression from his line with Burlington. He went from one of the worst places in the US to hit a baseball to one of the best.

You don't usually think of a former catcher being a base stealing threat, but Maier clearly has some wheels. I'm not 100% sure where he goes from here. He has some skills and some talent. He also has a nice track record in college. He could blow up and become the future right fielder for the Royals or he could continue to be a middle of the road bat with some speed, naturally ending up as a 4th outfielder in the bigs. It just depends on how well he adjusts.

ETA: early/mid 2007
3 stars

Gustavo Chacin Report

2005-05-01T02:09:00.000-05:00

Gustavo Chacin, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1998, Venezuela
Bats L/Throws L
24 YO, 5'11", 195 lbs

You probably know the story already. If you don't, here you go. It is the kind of thing that keeps hope in the hearts of struggling players everywhere. Chacin fell way off the map as a prospect after initially showing some promise early in his career. He had put up some good numbers in the low minors, but never dominated. He put up ERA's in the 4's with average ratios in the Florida State League, Southern League, and Eastern League, and spent the better part of 4 seasons in AA before somebody taught him how to throw a "cut" fastball. At that point, it just clicked.

2004 New Hampshire: 2.92 ERA, 109 K, 49 BB, 113 H, 15 HR, 142 IP
2004 Syracuse: 2.31 ERA, 14 K, 3 BB, 16 H, 0 HR, 12 IP
2004 Toronto: 2.57 ERA, 6 K, 3 BB, 8 H, 0 HR, 14 IP

His ratios aren't overwhelming, but they're still pretty good. He isn't walking too many batters and he certainly isn't allowing many hits. He's off to a great start for 2005, with an ERA in the mid 2's. That kind of success just isn't sustainable for long, and he's bound to have some regression. I don't expect him to finish the year with an ERA under 3.75. He just isn't striking out quite enough major leaguers to stay in the elite range. In his favor though, is the fact that he is inducing a lot of ground ball outs and his walk rate is pretty low. Still, I think he might be a property that you can sell high.

Chacin's arsenal consists of his newfound cut fastball, with which he can control the speed and break, a 2 seam fastball which gets into the low 90's, and a decent changeup. The Jays may have found a nice number 3 starter for the next decade.

ETA: He's already a serious ROY candidate
4 Stars

Internet Issues

2005-04-28T14:25:00.000-05:00

Due to problems with my connection to the "internets", I won't have any updates on friday, and possibly saturday. I have an appointment with a technician tomorrow to look at the line coming into my house and possibly the wiring inside my house if needed.

Stay tuned though. I'm working on reports featuring Mitch Maier and Gustavo Chacin, that should be ready when I come back to work on sunday morning.

Todd Linden Report

2005-04-28T11:59:00.000-05:00

Todd Linden, OF, San Francisco Giants
Drafted 41st Overall, 2001 Draft, LSU
Bats B/Throws R
24 YO, 6'3", 210 lbs

I'm a little miffed that Linden wasn't given more of a chance to be a backup for the Giants out of spring training. He's clearly a better prospect and player than Tony Torcato. He's more versatile because of his switch hitting. And he's showing slow growth in his game.

2004 Fresno: .260/.349/.466, 28 2B, 23 HR, 63 BB, 149 K, 8 SB, 6 CS, 489 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .280/.373/.447, 80 2B, 8 3B, 49 HR, 184 BB, 390 K, 33 SB, 15 CS, 1452 AB

He's not a great player, but he's a decent backup outfielder and pinch hitter to have laying around on the bench. He can play on either corner and he'll knock the crap out of a hanging curve or a poorly placed fastball. He'll also draw some walks, but he won't hit for a particularly good average, and because of that, he'll have to draw even more walks to salvage a good OBP. One wonders what he'd be like if he shortens his stroke and cut back on those K's. It's conceivable that if he managed that, he could be an entry level left fielder. As it is, he's a good bench player.

Unfortunately for Linden, the Giants have some better players with similar skills coming up behind him, so he might get lost in the shuffle. To get a break, he has to have a well timed hot streak. Because of his hitting style, he'll probably run hot and cold at the plate.

ETA: Overdue
3 Stars

Ryan Doumit Report

2005-04-27T12:05:00.000-05:00

Ryan Doumit, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Drafted 59th Overall (2nd Rd), 1999 Draft, HS, Moses Lake, WA
Bats B/Throws R
24 YO, 6'0", 200 lbs

You may remember him from my recent game notes column. He's a catcher with a good bat. A friend of mine mentioned the name Victor Martinez when we were talking about Doumit. That's kind of a valid comparison. Like Martinez, he's a good hitter and an average defensive catcher. He's no stiff with the glove, but the difference between him and the elite defensive catchers I've seen (Kevin Cash comes to mind) was pretty clear. His footwork isn't as clean and his actions aren't as fast. He did have a good arm though, and he's a decent athlete. The radar readout on the scoreboard was picking up his throws to second base, and he was consistently in the mid 80's, usually right at 84 MPH. He blocked balls in the dirt fairly well when I saw him. He's not a liability behind the plate, but he's not an asset there either.

On offense, his swing from the left side looked a lot smoother than from the right side. He also swung at some bad pitches as a right handed hitter, which I didn't see him do from the left side. This is another way of saying that I think he'll have a fairly wide platoon split.

He's off to a hot start, but he's not nearly as good a hitter as Martinez, but chances are he's better than your average catcher on offense. His patience at the plate is average. He has some pop in his bat, and he makes enough contact to make one think that he can hit for a pretty good average.

2004 Altoona: .262/.343/.489, 20 2B, 10 HR, 21 BB, 49 K, 221 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .287/.360/.434, 100 2B, 32 HR, 135 BB, 248 K, 1437 AB

Doumit's biggest question mark is his health. He's missed a massive amount of time with back, elbow, and knee problems. He has to stay healthy in order to get a real chance to be a starter in the majors. He's about to get squeezed in the organization, with Dave Ross, Benito Santiago, and Humberto Cota above him and Ronny Paulino and Neil Walker below him. If he's healthy, he's probably the best player of the lot. That's a big qualifier though.

ETA: Late 2005
3 1/2 Stars

Josh Kroeger Report

2005-04-26T12:21:00.000-05:00

Josh Kroeger, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Drafted 129th Overall (4th Rd), 2000 Draft, HS, San Diego, CA
Bats L/Throws L
22 YO, 6'2", 200 lbs

The Diamondbacks have an interesting dilemma to sort out. They have too many good young corner outfielders, especially now that they've moved Scott Hairston. Kroeger is among that fleet. He's a kid with a lot of power potential and good numbers in the upper minors at a young age. Based solely on that, there's not much to argue with. However, he still needs to do quite a bit of work on his plate discipline and he's moving down the defensive spectrum as he fills out.

He was drafted as a quick, athletic center fielder with a good arm. He's a capable right fielder for the foreseeable future as he's lost quite a bit of that speed, but still is in possession of good range for a corner OF and a nice arm. It would have been nice if he could have stayed in center since his best long term competition would be Luis Terrero. In right, he's fighting with Jon Zeringue, Carlos Quentin, and Sean Green's albatross contract. In left, you have Luis Gonzalez, Hairston, and Conor Jackson.

2004 El Paso: .331/.393/.588, 28 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 21 BB, 48 K, 245 AB
2004 Tucson: .332/.376/.587, 23 2B, 0 3B, 10 HR, 15 BB, 47 K, 208 AB
2004 Arizona: .167/.182/.222, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 BB, 21 K, 54 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .290/.343/.444, 134 2B, 23 3B, 41 HR, 143 BB, 433 K, 1977 AB

His patience at the plate is noticeable. It was still bad enough to be easily exploited by Major League pitchers in his brief late season trial.

I know I've complained about this before, but you're about to get it again. It is almost impossible to get a really good read on Diamondbacks hitting prospects. El Paso, Lancaster, and Tucson are all great hitters parks, among the best in baseball. That improves this year, as El Paso is replaced by Tennessee. That doesn't help us with Kroeger much though.

Kroeger is a good prospect with the possibility of growing into a very good player. Everything hinges on that walk rate though. He makes good, hard contact with everything in the zone, can play a good right field. And he looks like the power could keep coming as his body matures. Stay tuned.

ETA: Early 2006
4 Stars

Monday Linkage

2005-04-25T10:32:00.000-05:00

Rob and Rany talk about TYBITF favorite Calvin Pickering's astonishing demotion, Matt Diaz's callup and the amazing idea of making Ambriorix Burgos the temporary closer in KC.

Adam Morris took a scouting trip to Corpus Christi.

Lastly, you may have noticed that I have a new link on the blogroll. Welcome MaverickBall to the blogosphere.

Steve Andrade Report

2005-04-25T06:04:00.000-05:00

Steve Andrade. RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Drafted 959th Overall (32nd Rd), 2001 Draft, Cal State Stanislaus
Bats R/Throws R
27 YO, 6'1", 200 lbs

Andrade is a reliever with a 90 MPH fastball, a brutal slider, and a herky-jerky delivery that adds some deception. He's a fringe prospect from a small school, but has put up some pretty impressive numbers in the past. He was originally Angels property, but was claimed off waivers by Toronto this winter.

2004 Arkansas: 2.44 ERA, 59 K, 12 BB, 37 H, 4 HR, 48 IP
2004 Salt Lake City: 4.61 ERA, 17 K, 8 BB, 15 H, 1 HR, 13 IP
pre-2005 mL Career: 2.82 ERA, 286 K, 66 BB, 144 H, 8 HR, 201 IP

He struggled in AAA, but I'm not going to hold that against him because of the sample size and Salt Lake City's park effects. The bigger knock against him is his age. He was drafted and made his pro debut at 23.

The Blue Jays sent him to the Eastern League to start the year. If he continues to get outs, he'll get a shot. He's a sleeper prospect as he could find himself in middle relief for the Jays by midseason. On the other hand, he could end continue to be an anonymous minor league reliever for the rest of his career.

ETA: Late 2005?
3 Stars

Matt Craig Report

2005-04-24T07:50:00.000-05:00

Matt Craig, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Drafted 96th Overall (3rd Rd), 2002 Draft, Richmond
Bats B/Throws R
24 YO, 6'2", 200 lbs

Craig had a nice 2004 for West Tenn, posting a nice power spike and a slight bump in his walk rate. He struck out a bit more than he had in the past, but it probably is just a result of the increased power and patience, getting deep into counts. He's not a particularly good defensive third baseman, isn't likely to be a very good outfielder either, so with Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee signed to long term deals, he's blocked at his two possible positions.

2004 West Tennessee: .275/.363/.509, 20 2B, 20 HR, 49 BB, 101 K, 375 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .268/.344/.442, 47 2B, 36 HR, 107 BB, 216 K, 957 AB

He's got some pop in his bat, but that doesn't look like the career record of an everyday corner infielder. That leaves a backup role as his only potential major league role. A switch hitter in that position would be pretty useful, especially when he has a touch of power and the ability to draw a walk. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he grows into a better version of Justin Leone. For now he returns to West Tenn to start 2005. With how terrible the Cubs bench is at this point, he could be real useful in Wrigley real quick.

ETA: Late 2005/Early 2006
2 1/2 Stars

Tony Torcato Report

2005-04-24T04:38:00.000-05:00

Tony Torcato, OF, San Francisco Giants
Drafted 19th Overall, 1998 Draft, HS, Woodland, CA
Bats L/Throws R
25 YO, 6'1", 220 lbs

It just isn't going happen for Torcato. I know the Giants keep putting on a brave face for their former first round pick, but there's just not much to warrant giving him a roster spot or at bats. He hits for a decent average, but that's all he's got in his bag of tricks. No pitcher is going to be nervous facing a guy who has a 1 in 4 chance of hitting a single. He doesn't hot for much power, doesn't walk, and isn't a threat to disrupt things on the basepaths on the off chance that he actually does get on base in the first place. He's a middle of the road AAA outfielder given leeway because the organization likes him.

2004 Fresno: .289/.314/.367, 22 2B, 3 HR, 11 BB, 35 K, 395 AB
mL Career: .303/.339/.409, 178 2B, 13 3B, 38 HR, 159 BB, 376 K, 46 SB, 19 CS, 3003 AB

There isn't much call for a corner outfielder who can't put up a 700 OPS in Fresno. He's slready looking up a Jason Ellison and Lance Niekro among his age group, and he's about to be passed by Todd Linden, Fred Lewis, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Nate Schierholtz, and Dan Ortmeir. In other words, once the Giants get up the nerve to DFA him, you probably won't hear much from him again.

ETA: Opening Day
1 1/2 Stars

Sean Burnett Report

2005-04-23T10:27:00.000-05:00

Sean Burnett, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Drafted 19th Overall, 2000 Draft, HS, Wellington, FL
Bats L/Throws L
22 YO, 6'1", 170 lbs

Burnett's a command lefty who lost his command and then joined the Tommy John club late in the year. He never has had a blazing fastball or a flashy strikeout rate, but his high 80's fastball has some sink to it, and in the past it has ventured up into the low 90's. He also has a great changeup and a good slider when he's healthy. However, he's out for at least most of the year after his elbow surgery.

2004 Nashville: 5.36 ERA, 25 K, 17 BB, 58 H, 5 HR, 47 IP
2004 Pittsburgh: 5.02 ERA, 30 K, 28 BB, 86 H, 9 HR, 71 IP
mL Career: 2.87 ERA, 365 K, 115 BB, 529 H, 11 HR, 554 IP

I'm really not sure of what to make of him at this point. It was tough to nail down exactly how his game would transfer to the majors BEFORE 2004. His walk rate doubled and his ERA ballooned accordingly. Was that all because of the injury, or was there some real regression when faced with better hitters? There's some circumstantial evidence indicating that elbow problems can degrade command and control. But is that what happened here? Is there something else to it? Will he ever recover that command? Even if he does, will he ever get enough strikeouts and groundouts to be effective in the show? Because of all these questions, Burnett probably has about as wide a range of possible outcomes as any player you'll ever run across. He could turn into a late blooming Mark Buehrle clone or he could be out of baseball by 30. He could be Doug Davis, or a situational lefty, or a AAAA tweener.

ETA: 2006
3 Stars

Chris Shelton Report

2005-04-23T00:23:00.000-05:00

Chris Shelton, 1B/C, Detroit Tigers
Drafted 984th Overall (33rd Rd), 2001 Draft, University of Utah
Bats R/Throws R
24 YO, 6'0", 220 lbs

Shelton joins the pantheon of good bat/bad glove catchers. These guys should form a club. You have alumni like Craig Wilson, Matt LeCroy, Mike Sweeney, and Carlos Delgado. You have current guys like Ryan Garko, Justin Huber, Josh Willingham, and Daric Barton. Maybe I can coin a new acronym for them. GBBGC's doesn't have that ring to it that you get with TINSTAAPP or LOOGY.

Anyway, like most of these guys, Shelton has done nothing but hit since being drafted. As a catcher, he's pretty marginal defender, and probably won't stick there.

2004 Detroit: .196/.321/.283, 1 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 14 K, 46 AB
2004 Toledo: .339/.425/.371, 2 2B, 0 HR, 10 BB, 13 K, 62 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .332/.430/.533, 74 2B, 40 HR, 166 BB, 208 K, 1005 AB

He was a bit older than his competition in 2002 and 2003, so that career line is a little inflated, but not alarmingly so. As a first baseman, he's average or a touch above offensively. I don't see him as a big star in the making. Think Kevin Millar here. He's not great defensively at first either, so maybe Paul Konerko shows up on the radar, though I wouldn't bet on any 40 home run seasons like Konerko put up in 2004.

With Brandon Inge and Shelton, the Tigers COULD arrange their roster in a way that excludes a full time backup catcher. This is an idea that probably won't fly with Detroit management since they really are starting to move him permanently away from the tools of ignorance, AND it would require stocking the bench with a good utility infielder. I like the idea of freeing up a spot on your roster for something more useful than the Henry Blancos of the world. Fantasy owners would love it since they would get catcher eligibility from players who aren't full time catchers.

Shelton is next in line should the Tiggers finally get fed up with Carlos Pena's erratic play once and for all, or should they temporarily move Dmitri Young back to left field because of injuries in the outfield. I have nothing to back it up, but even though I think he's ready for the big leagues, he might need a few months to get his legs underneath him once he does win a job. Nonetheless, if you're looking for a fantasy sleeper, here ya go.

ETA: Midseason
3 1/2 Stars

Tagg Bozied Report

2005-04-22T09:45:00.000-05:00

Tagg Bozied, 1B, San Diego Padres
Drafted 90th Overall (3rd Rd), 2001 Draft, University of San Francisco
Bats R/Throws R
25 YO, 6'3", 210 lbs

Bozied joined the Martin Gramatica Hall of Fame when he tore his patelar tendon celebrating a game winning grand slam for Portland, bringing about 2 tragedies, the first was that it happened in the first place, the second is the fact that I don't have video to link.

Bozied is a big, slow, lefty slugger with marginal plate discipline, but a good bat nonetheless. He's not a good defensive first baseman. He's not particularly good on the basepaths. He's just another bat. He has yet to make his 2005 season debut, and there's still no reported timetable on his return.

2004 Portland: .315/.374/.629, 17 2B, 16 HR, 18 BB, 29 K, 213 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .275/.338/.486, 29 2B, 54 HR, 107 BB, 212 K, 1179 AB

It's too bad he got hurt when he did since he was on a roll when he went down. He has some platoon issues, so he may end up being a designated righty-masher. I'd like to see him draw more walks, but he's no hacker, so if he keeps producing, I can't complain too loudly.

With his defense, his platoon splits, his power ceiling, and the likelihood that he'll be making his ML debut in his mid to late 20's, Erubiel Durazo is the comp that immediately comes to mind. That's probably a good idea of what his upside would be like. His downside would be a hobbled DH bouncing from AAA city to AAA city with a yearly NRI.

ETA: 2005?
3 Stars

Robinson Cano Report

2005-04-21T13:09:00.000-05:00

Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 2001, Dominican Republic
Bats L/Throws R
22 YO, 6'0", 175 lbs

As if there needed to be more, Cano is another reason why the Yankees throwing a 2 year contract at Tony Womack was short-sighted, reactionary, and suffering from faulty logic. At his best, Womack is only adequate as a middle infielder. That contract is going to look ridiculous come the end of 2005.

Cano is a fairly promising young second baseman, with some flashes of power, and pretty good defense. He's just starting to learn how to control the strike zone and he has been reported as a strict platoon hitter.

2004 Trenton: .301/.356/.497, 20 2B, 8 3B, 7 HR, 24 BB, 40 K, 292 AB
2004 Columbus: .259/.316/.403, 9 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 18 BB, 27 K, 216 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .273/.327/.415, 93 2B, 26 3B, 37 HR, 129 BB, 247 K, 1807 AB

Like I said, he has some hints of power to come and improving walk rates. If this continues, he might find himself starting in the major leagues. Whether he starts for the Yankees is up for debate. As they've completely gone to the mercenary approach where they view their farm system as a source of tradeable assets instead of a way to bolster their roster while controlling costs. They don't trust young players, and aren't interested in giving their own prospects a chance to win a job. It's one of the reasons why their payroll outstrips the amount of talent they have on hand. Cano isn't a great player in the waiting, but he looks like he could be a competent major leaguer sometime soon and I'll be shocked if they even notice. The upside is something on the order of Todd Walker, if he doesn't continue to develop, he's Marco Scutaro without the defensive versatility.

ETA: Late 2005/Early 2006
3 Stars

Bobby Jenks Report

2005-04-20T12:20:00.000-05:00

Bobby Jenks, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Drafted 140th Overall (5th Rd), 2000 Draft, HS, Kenmore, WA
Bats R/Throws R
24 YO, 6'3", 270 lbs

Jenks is the classic Nuke LaLoosh/wild thing kid. He has serious heat and movement on his mid 90's to high 90's fastball and a hard curve that could grow into another solid out pitch. However, he has the classic problems that come with the skill set, injuries and control. He has been plagued with "stress reactions" in his pitching elbow, and he had surgery last year.

2004 Salt Lake City: 8.03 ERA, 13 K, 6 BB, 19 H, 1 HR, 12 IP
2004 Rancho Cucamonga: 19.64 ERA, 3 K, 7 BB, 5 H, 0 HR, 4 IP
pre-2005 mL Career: 4.92 ERA, 396 K, 267 BB, 340 H, 21 HR, 388 IP

Since claiming him off waivers, the White Sox have given in to inevitability and shifted him to the pen. Is it going to make a difference? Nobody knows. He probably needs some mechanical work, but with his classic power reliever arsenal, he has a very high ceiling if it works out. I wouldn't have taken the gamble and tied up a 40 man roster spot, but I'm not in charge of the White Sox, Kenny Williams is. Jenks gets a low grade based on his numbers and injury history, but he has more upside than just about anybody you'll find with his grade.

ETA: ???
1 1/2 Stars

Kelly Johnson Report

2005-04-19T14:17:00.000-05:00

Kelly Johnson, OF, Atlanta Braves
Drafted 38th Overall, 2000 Draft, HS, Austin, TX
Bats L/Throws R
23 YO, 6'1", 205 lbs

It really feels like Kelly Johnson has been a prospect for 10 years now. He was drafted as a shortstop and caught everybody's eye when he smashed 23 home runs, drew 71 walks, and stole 25 bases as a 19 year old in Sally League all the way back in 2001. It had statheads and scouts alike expecting a quick, orderly ascent through the minors and a glorious Major League career. It didn't quite happen that way. From there on, he was good, not great. He was competent, not spectacular. He was also moved from short to third and then to the outfield. Well, he's made it up to Richmond, and he's had a pretty nice couple of weeks in his first exposure to AAA pitching, hitting .381/.480/.690 with 8 extra-base hits and 8 walks to only 3 strikeouts in 42 at bats.

2004 Greenville: .282/.350/.468, 35 2B, 16 HR, 49 BB, 102 K, 9 SB, 9 CS, 479 AB
pre-2005 mL Career: .276/.356/.449, 113 2B, 62 HR, 233 BB, 448 K, 63 SB, 1929 AB

Everything looks like what we expect from a a steady player rising through the minors rung by rung. Good power, but nothing eye-catching. Good plate discipline, but he's no OBP machine. Decent average, but no threat for a batting title. He also has a good left fielder's glove with range and a good arm, but he's not a real candidate to move to center. Barring a weird power spike or him being taken over by the aliens who possessed Carlos Guillen last year, he looks like a Paul O'Neil clone for the next generation. That won't blow you away, but it's a hell of a lot better than paying Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan 7 figure salaries to be replacement level corner outfielders. For fantasy owners, he looks like Mark Kotsay, a guy who you pick up every year in the late rounds when you use your early picks to load up on pitchers and middle infielders. I wouldn't be surprised to see him up late this season when the inevitable injuries befall Jordan and Mondesi.

ETA: Mid/Late 2005
3 1/2 Stars

D.J. Houlton Report

2005-04-18T04:41:00.000-05:00

D.J. Houlton, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Drafted 326th Overall (11th Rd), 2001 Draft, University of the Pacific
Bats R/Throws R
25 YO, 6'4", 220 lbs

Houlton is a rule 5 pick who has stuck with the Dodgers out of spring training and it looks like he'll be an integral part of a good major league pen, even after Eric Gagne's return pushes somebody back to the minors. He doesn't have the electric stuff you expect to see out of a rule 5 pitcher or an elite reliever. But he does mix in as many as 5 pitches and has a great feel for keeping hitters off balance. His command also makes up for his average stuff. His fastball only gets up to about 90. His curve has some promise. He also has a changeup, splitter, and a slider.

2004 Round Rock: 2.94 ERA, 159 K, 47 BB, 141 H, 14 HR, 159 IP
mL Career: 3.34 ERA, 521 K, 132 BB, 498 H, 56 HR, 546 IP

Nothing there really sticks out as a reason why he shouldn't be capable of succeeding as a long reliever and swing starter in the big leagues. His statistical profile even makes him look like the power pitcher he isn't. He simply looks like a good pitcher. I think it was a mistake for the Astros to leave him unprotected in the rule 5 draft. Bully for him and bully for Paul DePodesta. As if we needed another example pointing out how easy it is to find good relievers who don't carry huge price tags. I don't honestly know whether his long term role is as a reliever or in the back half of the rotation. It usually has as much to do with the other pitchers on the team and the mood of the manager as it does with the pitcher's abilities.

ETA: Now
3 Stars

Jason Ellison Report

2005-04-17T11:48:00.000-05:00

Jason Ellison, CF, San Francisco Giants
Drafted 661st Overall (22nd Rd), 2000 Draft, Lewis and Clark State
Bats R/Throws R
27 YO, 5'10", 180 lbs

You might have caught Ellison's embarrassing blunder in the field that cost the Giants a game against the Giants arch rivals. It's a pretty heart-breaking thing since Ellison is a defensive replacement for good reason. He's a very good defensive outfielder. This isn't a situation like Brant Brown, where a limited defensive player was put in a situation where he was set up to fail.

Ellison is a minor league vet with speed and a contact hitting stroke. He's not a stud. He's not a stiff. He's just a good bench player waiting to happen.

2004 Fresno: .315/.368/.459, 32 2B, 7 3B, 9 HR, 40 BB, 66 K, 27 SB, 12 CS, 505 AB
mL Career: .297/.364/.409, 128 2B, 17 3B, 31 HR, 225 BB, 296 K, 105 SB, 2278 AB

Those raw numbers are filtered through the prism that is Fresno. He's a classic 5th outfielder, able to play all three spots, pinch run for slow players, and pinch hit for catchers and pitchers. He's of little or no value to fantasy league owners. Giants fans are likely the only ones who will notice him after this week for about the next couple years.

ETA: Now
2 Stars

Lance Neikro Report

2005-04-17T06:34:00.000-05:00

Lance Neikro, OF/3B, San Francisco Giants
Drafted 61st Overall (2nd Rd), 2000 Draft, Florida Southern
Bats R/Throws R
26 YO, 6'3", 215 lbs

It's federal law that if you're doing a Lance Neikro report, you have to mention that he's Joe's son and Phil's nephew. So with that out of the way, here we go. Neikro is up with the big club, riding the bench for the most part. He had a big breakthrough last year, but I have some doubts.

2004 San Jose: .311/.328/.508, 7 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K, 61 AB
2004 Fresno: .298/.337/.566, 21 2B, 4 3B, 12 HR, 14 BB, 32 K, 242 AB
mL Career: .310/.339/.459, 88 2B, 12 3B, 29 HR, 57 BB, 147 K, 1340 AB

That's a big power spike, but it was also coming from nowhere (he slugged .383 in Fresno in 2003) and it was in 2 leagues that can produce some fluky results. Add to that the fact that his plate discipline still isn't good and you have a situation that requires more evidence before you get a solid buy recommendation. For now, keep an eye out for him. The Giants outfield is old and fragile, as witnessed by Bonds and Alou already being M.I.A. If Michael Tucker or J.T. Snow goes down, Neikro may find his way into the everyday lineup on at least a temporary basis. If that happens, well, he probably won't hit enough to find his way into a regular gig, but ya never know.

Defensively, he's a capable corner outfielder and a merely competent third baseman. As such, his most likely role might be as a pinch hitter who backs up both corner outfielders and corner infielders, platooning with any lefty bats that have bad platoon splits.

ETA: Now
2 Stars

Val Majewski Report

2005-04-16T08:41:00.000-05:00

Val Majewski, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Drafted 76th Overall (3rd Rd), 2002 Draft, Rutgers
Bats R/Throws R
21 YO, 6'1", 180 lbs

Majewski is a promising prospect who is out for most or all of 2005 after shoulder surgery. Doctors fixed both his rotator cuff and his labrum. When he's healthy, he's a multi-talented offensive performer and a steady glove in right field, or in other words, the player the Orioles thought Keith Reed would be.

2004 Bowie: .307/.359/.490, 24 2B, 5 3B, 15 HR, 33 BB, 68 K, 14 SB, 4 CS, 433 AB
mL Career: .300/.358/.504, 66 2B, 20 3B, 29 HR, 84 BB, 128 K, 33 SB, 9 CS, 946 AB

The walk rate could use some work, but I'm not pessimistic about it because by all reports, he's reasonably selective at the plate, and just particularly good at making contact. His strikeout rate speaks to that. He has a touch of speed and some developing power.

The shoulder problems are something to be worried about. His biggest strength on defense was his strong arm. I also worry about whether his swing will be affected. If he comes back and shows that he wasn't permanently affected, then I'd definitely be optimistic about his chances. His ceiling looks a lot like Magglio Ordonez. That's a really sunny projection though.

ETA: Late 2006
3 1/2 Stars

Aaron Heilman Report

2005-04-16T05:03:00.000-05:00

Aaron Heilman, RHP, New York Mets
Drafted 18th Overall, 2001 Draft, Notre Dame
Bats R/Throws R
26 YO, 6'5", 220 lbs

Heilman's one hit shutout of the Marlins last night will no doubt catch the eye of casual fans and roto owners alike as he had been all but forgotten since he burst onto the scene as a promising young prospect, making it up to AAA Norfolk in his first full pro season. He looked great last night, striking out 7 in the effort.

He generally works with a low 90's sinker and a nice splitter. When he's at his best, he's producing a ton of ground balls. He needs to watch his command though because if he gets the ball up or starts walking batters, he can get hammered. He also has a changeup that he's been working on for a couple of years, but I'm not sure that's a consistent go-to pitch. When I think of this kind of pitcher, for some reason, I usually go to Charles Nagy, who works pretty well for a Heilman comp.

2004 Norfolk: 4.33 ERA, 123 K, 66 BB, 156 H, 15 HR, 151 IP
2004 New York: 5.46 ERA, 22 K, 13 BB, 27 H, 4 HR, 28 IP
mL Career: 3.68 ERA, 365 K, 155 BB, 408 H, 30 HR, 430 IP
MLB Career: 6.36 ERA, 73 K, 54 BB, 106 H, 17 HR, 93 IP

Last night's performance was obviously above his normal range of ability, but given a good infield defense, he could be an above average innings eater for some team. If this opens the door for him to get a full time rotation spot, he'll probably generate an ERA in the mid to high 4's. He's not a star in the making, but he could be an inning sponge who is really dependent on the defense behind him and his ability to get hitters to beat the ball into the ground time and time again. The upside is something on the order of a poor man's Derek Lowe. Nagy's a more likely outcome.

ETA: Now
3 Stars

Freddy Sanchez Report

2005-04-15T12:36:00.000-05:00

Freddy Sanchez, IF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Drafted 332nd Overall (11th Rd), 2000 Draft, Oklahoma City University
Bats R/Throws R
27 YO, 5'11", 185 lbs

Sanchez was seen as a hot property a couple years ago, driven by flashy batting averages, and especially the .341/.430/.493 performance in 2003 at Pawtucket. 2004 put that to rest.

2004 Nashville: .264/.326/.360, 7 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 11 BB, 17 K, 4 SB, 125 AB
mL Career: .318/.380/.439, 117 2B, 9 3B, 17 HR, 142 BB, 206 K, 1534 AB

Sanchez is currently spending his time sharing utility infielder duties for the Pirates with Bobby Hill. Barring a surprise spike in his walk rate, he should carry on in that role for a half decade or so, doing a reasonable job. He's a better defensive second baseman than shortstop, but if needed, he could do the job.

At the plate, Sanchez will put up decent batting averages, but they'll be hollow due to his mediocre walk rate and anemic power. He's not slow on the basepaths, but he's also not a basestealer, so roto league owners should look elsewhere.

When the competition is Hill, Rob Mackowiak, and Jose Castillo, a hot month could win Sanchez at least a temporary pass as the starting second baseman. I don't recommend it, but it is possible. He's better suited to be a bench player.

ETA: N/A
2 Stars

Angel Molina Report

2005-04-14T00:22:00.000-05:00

Angel Molina, OF, Florida Marlins
Drafted 823rd Overall (27th Rd), 1999 Draft, HS, Ponce, P.R.
Bats R/Throws R
23 YO, 6'2", 226 lbs

No relation to the catching Molina brothers, this Molina is a hitter without a real defensive position. He's a big, slow, converted catcher and his best role would probably be DH. On the plus side, he's starting to hit for some power and his walk rate is improving.

2004 Greensboro: .284/.330/.465, 27 2B, 18 HR, 55 BB, 110 K, 10 HBP, 469 AB
mL Career: .264/.344/.434, 55 2B, 34 HR, 107 BB, 265 K, 995 AB

He's turning into a real hitter, but some caveats are in order. He's been playing a year behind his age group. He also has the positional thing going against him. As an outfielder, he's not likely to ever be a good outfielder. Finally, while his offensive numbers are getting into the range where he can be considered a decent prospect, as a corner outfielder or first baseman, he still has a ways to go before he becomes a really good one. He's starting the year in Jupiter, which keeps him behind his age group. He's off to a slow start, drawing walks, but doing little else. However, that doesn't really matter. I won't start listing this season's offensive numbers until the sample size rises above 100 at bats. Molina's probably going to wash into the high minors and stick around there for a good 5-10 years. One in every 10 players like this breaks throuh and becomes Josh Willingham or Craig Wilson. The other 9 become the guys you've never heard of when you go to a AAA game.

ETA: 2007?
2 stars

Billy Traber Report

2005-04-13T09:54:00.000-05:00

Billy Traber, LHP, Cleveland Indians
Drafted 16th Overall, 2000 Draft, Loyola Marymount
Bats L/Throws L
25 YO, 6'5", 205 lbs

Traber is still out after having Tommy John surgery in September of 2003. His long recovery is troubling. When he's healthy, he has a fastball that only reaches the upper 80's, but is deceptive. He also throws a split finger fastball and a nice curve. When he comes back, it will be as a middle reliever.

2003 Cleveland: 5.24 ERA, 88 K, 40 BB, 132 H, 15 HR, 112 IP
mL Career: 3.01 ERA, 239 K, 68 BB, 297 H, 11 HR, 315 IP

The performance record indicates a reasonably talented pitcher. Because of his stuff, he won't ever be a big star, but he could return to become a decent left reliever, transcending the standard LOOGY career death trap. The upside here is Mike Remlinger.

ETA: ??
2 Stars

Game Notes, April 12, Indy vs Ottawa

2005-04-12T23:49:00.000-05:00

The second game of this series was a cold, quick pitchers duel between top Pirates prospect Zach Duke and former big leaguer James Baldwin.

Baldwin was the star of the game, shutting the Indians out for 7 innings, and only allowing 3 hits. He's still a bit on the soft side physically, and yes, he still wears his hat down over his eyes. He's lost some velocity from his White Sox days, working mainly in the mid 80's with his fastball. He had good command tonight and always looked like he was in charge. The only Indians hitter who looked really good tonight was Graham Koonce, who hit a screaming line drive right at Keith Reed in his first at bat and went on to hit a a nice double down the right field line in the 5th. Also of note, Baldwin worked really fast. It was a cold night, but he looked like he had a date. The catcher threw the ball back to him, gave him the signs, and it was back in his glove. I appreciated it.

I mentioned Koonce. I don't remember him drawing any walks, which is a mild surprise since he's been an absolute walk machine the last couple years. He did control the strike zone though, and Baldwin gave him some stuff to hit tonight. He was up for it. He didn't look as good last night. I also got to see his defense at first, which was better than I had expected, though nothing that's going to garner him any shiny hardware. I wish the Pirates would bring up Brad Eldred to slot in behind Koonce. That would make for a more interesting and intimidating lineup. Eldred is off to a smoking hot start so I may get my wish by midseason.

Nate McLouth batted second for the Indians both nights. I need to do a full report on him since he looks tailor made for a 4th outfielder role. He's a lefty swinging guy with a nice all around game that isn't going to blow you away. He makes contact, draws enough walks, steals some bases, and plays a pretty good outfield. He played left tonight, but he can play some center and has enough arm to pass for a right fielder if needed. With Rich Thompson and Ray Sadler, they should have an outfield with a lot of range this year.

Duke was the guy I really wanted to see tonight and he didn't disappoint. Baldwin may have outshined him, but he still looked good. I like his delivery. It looks pretty effortless, and his control was in order as well. Nether pitcher had a problem throwing strikes. Duke's fastball was consistantly in the 88-90 mph range. He threw the fastball more than half the time, probably closer to 2/3 than half. His curve looked really good, clocking in at 70-73 most of the time. It had a lot of vertical break. He struck Young out in the first with one of these. He got knocked for a lot of singles. He got nickel-and-dimed to death all night. Also of note, his pickoff move was exceptional. He had at least one baserunner kill. He should have had one early in the game, but was robbed by a bad call from the first base ump.

The game ended up a 2-0 road win for Baldwin and the Lynx. They hook up again tomorrow afternoon, but I'll be at work, so that's the last I'll see of these teams for now. I'm still hoping to see a lot more International League action this season. When I do catch a game, I'll talk about it here.

Chris Snelling Report

2005-04-12T14:31:00.000-05:00

Chris Snelling, OF, Seattle Mariners
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1999, Australia
Bats L/Throws L
23 YO, 5'10", 160 lbs

I used to love Snelling. He was an OBP machine with gap power, some speed, and a good left field glove. The injuries have really damaged his career. He's expected to miss the first month of this season with torn cartilage in his left knee. Last year, he missed a lot of time because of a broken hamate bone in his right wrist and cartilage damage in his left wrist. He's also had an ACL surgery, and various other problems. He's absolutely cursed.

2004 Mariners (AZL): .313/.476/.500, 4 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 3 K, 32 AB
mL Career: .320/.398/.488, 80 2B, 23 3B, 33 HR, 139 BB, 178 K, 1343 AB

He could still salvage a career between injuries. He still has a nice line drive bat and he still knows the strikezone. But the only way I can see it happening is as a DH, which would hurt his value. I really want to see him succeed. The odds are against him. A lesser (some would say smarter) man would have retired already, hoping that he could still walk without a limp by age 30. Best of luck to him. I'll keep an eye on Tacoma's box scores in case he re-appears.

ETA: ??
2 1/2 Stars

Game Notes, April 11, Indy vs Ottawa

2005-04-12T12:09:00.000-05:00

I went to the monday night game featuring Ottawa and Indianapolis. It was a warm night with some sprinkles here and there, but no rain, which was feared. The crowd was sparce, but no less sparce than you'd expect on a monday night.

There was a light wind blowing in over the RCA Dome and convention center from right field. It knocked down some fly balls, making a pretty pitcher-friendly Victory Field an even friendlier place to be on the little bump in the middle of the infield.

I sat down the first base line, 3 rows up, just past the visitors dugout. It's right next to where the autograph hounds congregate before the game. This is a part of the game that I don't care for. I like autographed stuff as much as the next guy, but for the most part the autograph process itself is like making sausage or legislation. Watching the process ruins the joy of the product. This is a minor league game. I can see waiting and hounding Alex Rodriguez for an autograph, but is the demand for signed Tim Byrdak cards really enough to warrant this kind of trouble? Oh well, these guys are just filling a niche. Like scalpers, they're a part of today's sports landscape, whether it gives me the willies or not. At least these guys are only obnoxious before the game starts. That's better than hecklers, who are usually obnoxious for about 6 or 7 innings depending on their tolerance level and ability to pay for multiple $5 beers.

Onto the game. Neither team is loaded with really remarkable prospects. The Indians have a handful of 2 1/2- 3 1/2 star prospects like Ryan Doumit, who has raised eyebrows with a very quick start. They also have some pitching talent on hand, but Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Bobby Bradley, and Corey Stewart were unavailable. The Indians started Justin Reid, who looks more like a potential long reliever in the big leagues than he does a big starter. It looked like he worked mostly with a high 80's sinking fastball, mixing in a slurvy-looking off-speed pitch that registered about 80 on the gun. He gave up a lot of hits and certainly wasn't overpowering, but most of the damage was done on ground balls that turned into base hits. His command was reasonably good and he didn't walk many hitters, maybe 1 or 2 in the 5 1/3 innings he pitched. I didn't count. He's a standard sinker-slider guy who might get caught up in the AAAA trap.

Doumit is a catcher with some pop. He's had some injury problems in the past. His defense gets passable marks. It was hard to get a read on how well he throws in this game because Ottawa didn't really challenge him very much. He only made one throw, and that was on a steal attempt where the pitcher threw the ball in the dirt. He blocked the ball, but because of the delay, he had to rush the throw and sent it into center field. Brian Reith was throwing the ball in the dirt quite a bit it seemed, and he did reasonably well, only letting one ball get by him all night. Also notable, Doumit runs pretty well for a catcher. He looked like he had average speed, which is something I didn't expect. He didn't do much at the plate, but he didn't look bad. He has a quick bat and he didn't swing at bad pitches. He rapped a single into left field to lead off the Indians 6th inning. It was a rope.

I mentioned Reith. He's a known commodity with a lot of service time built up with the Reds. Something I never noticed with him is a peculiar part of his delivery. His upper body has a pretty normal set of mechanics, but he has a noticable hitch in his lower body. He lands with his front knee slightly bent and straightens it out after he lands to where it is almost stiff. It looks like it would be very hard on that knee. I'm far from an expert on mechanics though.

Rich Thompson has been a hot topic for the Indians as he carries a reputation for excellent defense in center field. He didn't get many chances to show that off tonight. He is a speed demon though. If he can get on base at a decent clip, he can be a real assett as a reserve outfielder in the majors.

One player on the Lynx was 1999 first round pick and former big time prospect Keith Reed. It's easy to see what scouts loved about him. He's a big, strong, athletic kid who looks great in uniform. It's also easy to see how he fell off the prospect wagon. His swing looked good, but he had no real plan at the plate, at times flailing at a breaking ball well out of the zone and then on the very next pitch watching a fastball in the zone go into the glove for a strike.

Side note: One of the revolving ads on the out of town scoreboard was for Pabst Blue Ribbon beer. I was surprised to hear they still made that stuff. The last time I saw a real like can of it would have been in my dad's fridge, probably during the Reagan administration.

The best prospect on the field for the Orioles was Eli Whiteside, who smashed a line drive to the deepest part of the field for a ground rule double. He looked good behind the plate too. He should at least be a decent backup catcher at the next level. If he can keep producing at the plate as well as behind it, he could have a career as a starter.

Walter Young was the big star of the night. And when I say big star, I mean literally as well as figuratively. He's a huge man. He's Calvin Pickering big, though he's built differently. Much of Pick's weight is concentrated in his lower body. He has huge legs and an ample posterior. Young carries much of his weight in his torso, which is beyond thick. Anyways, he went 4 for 4 with a solo home run to the right field power alley, directly into the wind. It was a very tall shot that would have bounced up and hit the scoreboard if it weren't for the wind slowing it down. It's pretty obvious that he's a pull hitter. All 4 hits were to the right side, 3 on ground balls between the second baseman and first baseman, and the one deep shot. In the 10th inning, he was intentionally walked with 2 out and 2 on. Jeff Miller walked the next batter to score the deciding run.

Jacobo Sequea shut down the Indians in the bottom of the 10th to get the save. He was showing the same combination of a low 90's moving fastball and a low 80's slider.

I hope to go to Tuesday's game featuring the same teams, and hopefully one of the Pirates better pitching prospects.

Matt Moses Report

2005-04-11T04:15:00.000-05:00

Matt Moses, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Drafted 21st Overall, 2003 Draft, HS, Richmond, VA
Bats L/Throws R
20 YO, 6'1", 210 lbs

Moses was seen as a potential impact bat when the Twins drafted him in the first round 2 years ago. He is off to a fast start this year in the Florida State League, after a lost 2004, where he missed a lot of time because of a back injury and didn't hit at all when he did play.

2004 Quad Cities: .223/.304/.366, 7 2B, 3 HR, 12 BB, 25 K, 112 AB
mL Career: .282/.345/.412, 12 2B, 3 HR, 17 BB, 34 K, 177 AB

I'm willing to buy into the assertion that the main reason he struggled so badly last year was the injury and when healthy, he should beat pitchers into a bloody pulp. On the other hand, the idea of a 20 year old with re-occurring back problems makes me pretty nervous too. I've fallen in love with injury prone prospects before and most of them have broken my heart. For now, I'll keep my enthusiasm in check. He's a very high risk/high reward player. He could grow up to be Eric Chavez, or he could stagnate and fade out of sight.

Defensively, Moses reminds me of Michael Cuddyer, who likewise was drafted as a shortstop and moved to third base, where he struggled with the conversion. The Twins are still saying that he'll just require some time to adjust. Can buy that explanation, but we need to see him carry through with it.

ETA: 2007/2008
3 Stars (a.k.a. default setting until we get better indicators)

A Waste of At Bats

2005-04-10T10:24:00.000-05:00

The Devil Rays are starting Alex Gonzalez at third base. Chew on that fact for a moment. Which Alex Gonzalez? I'm not sure because I really don't make the effort to differentiate between the two anymore. They're both bad shortstops with a little pop, but very little else going for them. It isn't worth the effort to figure out whether the one you're watching is the one who started his career with Toronto or with the Fish. They're also using Nick Green at the hot corner. That's not a whole lot better. Green is an alright guy to have around as a utility infielder, but it's better to have him in AAA.

This is a small example of why the Rays are a bad team and have been a bad team for as long as they've been a team. This is great news for Gonzalez and Green. They get a paycheck and more playing time than they'd get anywhere else in the league, but the Rays stick themselves with the worst arrangement at the position anybody could come up with while not really giving themselves any side benefits. They don't get to test out a new rookie, or even a reclamation project. They're just marking time with bad players.

The saddest part of this whole thing is that Durham has a better third baseman than Tampa. They have a reclamation project who is likely to give better results. That player is Eric Munson. Munson has some issues. His batting average and OBP stunk last year and due to his strikeout rate, it's unlikely that he'll ever be a real force in those areas. He also isn't an aesthetically pleasing third baseman defensively. However, he's shown some growth and wouldn't hurt his team in the role. The upside is that he's a lefty power hitter of the first order. If he can manage a .260 batting average, he very well could put up a .260/.330/.500 season. What's the downside here? With that performance, the Rays could either shop him at the deadline as a nice bat off the bench, or they could sign him to a cheap 2 or 3 year deal as he's very unlikely to get much over a million in arbitration.

The other idea would be to move Aubrey Huff back to third temporarily and use Jonny Gomes in right field. Huff is not a good defensive third baseman, and Gomes has some questions of his own in making contact with the ball, but it's a waste of everybody's time to have him smashing International League baseballs over the fences. You could easily make the case for Matt Diaz or Mike Restovich getting a chance instead of Gomes, but let's take on one bad Chuck LaMar decision at a time.

The heart of this matter is the notion of organizational assets. Playing time is an organizational asset, just like payroll dollars or roster spots or Dr James Andrews or video equipment. It often isn't seen as an asset, but it is. Being such, it should be handed out with goals in mind. The goals for every at bat for the Cardinals or Yankees or Red Sox are pretty clear, maximize on-field performance. They better the player, the more playing time gets thrown in that direction. They have a limited ability to tolerate the growing pains that a rookie or a reclamation project will suffer through. The Rays are obviously not in that category, and even if they were, the performance difference between Gonzalez and one of the other two scenarios I mentioned is marginal at best. The #1 goal for the Devil Rays should be to evaluate talent on hand in preparation for better times ahead. #2 should be to showcase potential trade bait. Both Gomes and Munson meet one or the other of these goals. We know they're going to manhandle minor league pitching. They have thousands of minor league at bats under their belts to prove it. The question is whether they can adjust and excel against major league competition. Nothing is accomplished by putting them in Durham cold storage, just like nothing is accomplished by playing Green and Gonzalez when we all know that they both stink.

There are certain reasons for Rays fans to be hopeful for the future. They have two dynamic young players in B.J. Upton and Delmon Young. They also have the rapidly improving Carl Crawford, the reasonably promising Jorge Cantu, and the overrated, but nonetheless above average Rocco Baldelli. At that's not to mention Scott Kazmir and the very relevant Huff, Julio Lugo, Chad Orvella, and Josh Phelps. However, I can't buy into the idea that they are really going anywhere when management continues to squander resources and screw around with bad players in a futile effort to finish in 4th place. There's no coherent plan here and no idea of what a plan should even LOOK like. This aimlessness is the same thing that caused them to squander tens of millions of dollars on the days of Canseco, McGriff, Greg Vaughn, Ice Williams, Roberto Hernandez, and Wilson Alvarez. It is the same reason they screwed around with Robbie Alomar, Alex Sanchez, and Danny Bautista in spring training. There is a reason the Rays stink, and that reason is the management core or Vince Namoli and Chuck LaMar. As long as they're the ones pulling the levers running this machine, success will be an aberration and failure will be the norm.

Rant Over

Chin-Feng Chen Report

2005-04-10T06:56:00.000-05:00

Chin-Feng Chen, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1999, Taiwan
Bats R/Throws R
27 YO, 6'1", 190 lbs

The prospecty sheen is long gone and he's unlikely to ever be a starter in the major leagues. On the other hand, he still has some things going for him. He's still a pretty decent AAA outfielder who wouldn't embarrass himself on a big league bench as a designated lefty masher. On the other hand, his AAA stats are greatly enhanced by Cashman Field and he's not a particularly good fielder.

2004 Las Vegas: .289/.359/.584, 19 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 35 BB, 78 K, 308 AB
mL Career: .289/.374/.510, 155 2B, 33 3B, 131 HR, 357 BB, 725 K, 2778 AB

I could see him turning into a poor man's Jose Guillen. So where did he go wrong? He just never advanced. He's the same player he was 3 or 4 years ago. In 2002, he hit .284/.352/.503 in Las Vegas. Stagnation is a curse. Chen never turned into the player we thought he would simply because what we saw at 24 years old, was just about the best he had to offer.

He returns to Vegas for his 4th PCL season. He was outrighted off the 40 man roster and is approaching the point where he can look for greener pastures via minor league free agency.

ETA: ?
2 Stars

Roman Colon Report

2005-04-10T05:54:00.000-05:00

Roman Colon, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1995, Domincan Republic
Bats R/Throws R
25 YO, 6'3", 170 lbs

Colon's strikeout rate went from 4.9 per 9 innings with Greenville to 7.8 per 9 with Richmond when the Braves sent him to the bullpen this year. His ERA, walk rate, and hit rate all remained steady through the conversion. The improved ratios really do help his prognosis.

2004 Richmond: 3.65 ERA, 64 K, 22 BB, 72 H, 4 HR, 74 IP
2004 Atlanta: 3.32 ERA, 15 K, 8 BB, 18 H, 0 HR, 19 IP
mL Career: 3.980 ERA, 509 K, 238 BB, 779 H, 43 HR, 753 IP

A couple of interesting notes. He missed the 2000 season for reasons I don't have at my disposal. Another interesting thing is that he's posted an ERA in the 3's at every stop this century discounting the 3 innings he spent in Greenville this season. Lastly, up until this season, he's never been promoted mid-season and he's never repeated a level. Every individual season has one stat line and they all have different team names. That's trivial, but I've stared at one hell of a lot of minor league careers and that' the first time I've ever seen it in a career with more than 2 or 3 seasons.

As to whether Colon will be a good reliever, he should be alright. He might get some time in as a closer at some point, but he'll need health, good performance, and a chance (also known as luck). He's already firmly entrenched as a major league reliever with the Braves. I'm betting on an ERA in the 3's with good ratios.

ETA: About A Week Ago
3 1/2 Stars

Josh Willingham Report

2005-04-09T09:46:00.000-05:00

Josh Willingham, C/1B/LF, Florida Marlins
Drafted 491st Overall (17th Rd), 2000 Draft, University of North Alabama
Bats R/Throws R
26 YO, 6'1", 200 lbs

He's a hitter, pure and simple. He's not a bad defensive catcher, but not a particularly good one either. He's also blocked at the position by Paul LoDuca. The Marlins also blocked his other main position when they signed Carlos Delgado to be their first baseman. They've toyed with play him on an outfield corner, though he has exactly the kind of footspeed that you'd expect from a catcher, so range will probably be an issue there as well. His bat deserves attention and playing time.

2004 Carolina: .281/.449/.565, 24 2B, 24 HR, 91 BB, 87 K, 18 HBP, 338 AB
mL Career: .272/.412/.493, 101 2B, 72 HR, 306 BB, 379 K, 1506 AB

He obviously has some power and a lot of patience. He's an OBP machine. If you're a team like Tampa, wouldn't YOU want a chance to spot a bat like that in at catcher, DH, first, and left field on an everyday basis?

The comps run from converted catchers like Matt LeCroy and Craig Wilson to general bat-only thumpers like Erubiel Durazo and Dmitri Young. I know I'd rather carry around Willingham than a stiff like Juan Encarnacion or an overpaid, aging Jeff Conine. The argument for now is moot as Willingham will start the season as an Isotope. Any sane team should be clamoring for him at some point this season. While he's not a good defender anywhere, his defensive versatility combined with his bat should provide a pretty valuable player given a manager willing to be creative with his lineups.

ETA: Any Day Now
4 Stars

Willy Aybar Report

2005-04-08T06:20:00.000-05:00

Willy Aybar, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 2000, Dominican Republic
Bats B/Throws R
22 YO, 6'0", 185 lbs

Aybar is the brother of Angels infielder Erick Aybar. He's a very different player though. Erick is a defensive force at short, while Aybar is average at second base. Erick is a free swinger who rarely walks, while Willy has a fairly nice walk rate for his age and level. Willy doesn't have his brother's speed, and scouts don't like him nearly as much. Statheads on the other hand like him a lot, and it is easy to see why.

2004 Jacksonville: .276/.346/.425, 27 2B, 15 HR, 50 BB, 77 K, 482 AB
mL Career: .254/.335/.386, 114 2B, 45 HR, 240 BB, 312 K, 2003 AB

The Southern League is a tough place to hit a baseball, and a 21 year old second baseman who hits that well there has something going for him. Just as hitters who smash their way through the California League tend to become somewhat overrated, batters who do a better than average job in the Carolina League, Florida State League, or Southern League tend to fly under the scouting radar.

Like Delwyn Young, there's been a lot of noise about moving him to third base or an outfield corner. He's probably more capable of staying at second than Young. As with Young, if he sticks at second base, his upside is something on the order or the guy that he's looking to succeed, Jeff Kent. A more modest comparison would be maybe something on the order of a better version of Keith Ginter or in other words, Chase Utley. Maybe Ron Belliard with a less dysfunctional career path?

ETA: Mid/Late 2006
4 Stars

Wilson Betemit Report

2005-04-07T11:04:00.000-05:00

Wilson Betemit, IF, Atlanta Braves
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1996, Dominican Republic
Bats B/Throws R
24 YO, 6'3", 190 lbs

He's not the stud that prospect hawks like me thought he would be back in 2001. He's stagnated and is out of options, meaning he stays on the Braves roster this year.

2004 Richmond: .278/.336/.466, 24 2B, 13 HR, 32 BB, 99 K, 356 AB
mL Career: .279/.338/.426, 149 2B, 26 3B, 56 HR, 230 BB, 586 K, 2511 AB

The power has increased a little bit over the last couple years. And he's become a very capable defensive third baseman, but he's still stuck. He doesn't hit well enough to make himself a real option at third base, and he generally isn't good enough to force his way past Raffy Furcal. For this year, he rides the pine most of the time, barring injury to Chipper Jones or Furcal.

There's a number of ways he can go from here. He could ride down the Enrique Wilson career path and become a mediocre utility infield, never living up to the expectations that were generated by his early rise into the upper minors. Or he could luck his way into a starting gig by way of injury, perform well, and become a league average shortstop. Or he could mark time for several years before one year finding a big power spike in his late 20's/early 30's and become a Tony Batista type.

ETA: Now
2 1/2 Stars

Willy Taveras Report

2005-04-06T12:51:00.000-05:00

Willy Taveras, CF, Houston Astros
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1999, Dominican Republic
Bats R/Throws R
23 YO, 6'0", 160 lbs

Taveras made the opening day roster and is starting in center field while Lance Berkman is out. He's probably in a fight to the death with his friend and fellow outfielder Luke Scott for a starting spot in the big leagues. Taveras might win for his defensive abilities. He'd be a much better center fielder than Jerome Lane, even if he doesn't have the same ability to hit for power.

2003 Kinston: .282/.381/.350, 9 2B, 6 3B, 2 HR, 52 BB, 68 K, 57 SB, 12 CS, 397 AB
2004 Round Rock: .335/.402/.386, 13 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 38 BB, 76 K, 55 SB, 11 CS, 409 AB
mL Career: .296/.379/.381, 74 2B, 24 3B, 15 HR, 212 BB, 361 K, 257 SB, 1981 AB

He's another one of these guys with serious speed and little or no power. Given he can reclaim some of that 2003 walk rate that he gave up last year, he's a traditionalist's wet dream of a leadoff hitter. He won't hit for the kind of average he showed in Round Rock, but I don't think that minor league career line is out of the question, which given his flycatching ability in center field and his deadly effectiveness on the basepaths, would make him a pretty valuable player. It would make him Juan Pierre or Scott Podsednik with more walks. In other words, it would only make him a decent outfielder, but an extremely valuable roto property.

ETA: A Couple Days Ago
3 1/2 Stars

Callix Crabbe Report

2005-04-05T14:22:00.000-05:00

Callix Crabbe, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Drafted 349th Overall (12th Rd), 2002 Draft, Manatee Community College
Bats B/Throws R
22 YO, 5'8", 190 lbs

What a great name. This is the kind of name that makes me really hope the player works out and ends up a major league regular just for the novelty of having a player with that name bouncing around the league. Wouldn't you want a Callix Crabbe on your fantasy team? I would.

Crabbe is another slap hitting middle infielder who loves to use his legs. He isn't going to hit it over the fence, but he hits a lot of triples.

2004 High Desert: .291/.367/.419, 26 2B, 11 3B, 7 HR, 59 BB, 64 K, 34 SB, 11 CS, 13 GIDP, 540 AB
mL Career: .287/.371/.402, 67 2B, 21 3B, 12 HR, 156 BB, 150 K, 81 SB, 29 CS, 27 GIDP, 1255 AB

You have to love the batting eye here. He has a great walk rate and a reasonable strikeout rate. Even if he doesn't hit home runs, he hits some doubles, so he might be able to avoid the trap where hitters with no power and great batting eyes get a steady diet of strikes just because the pitcher isn't scared of what will happen if he does make contact. Still, I want to see him turn on a pitch or at least hit some more liners in the gaps. A .128 isolated slugging percentage in the California League is pretty weak, even for a second baseman.

Crabbe can obviously steal a base. His defense at second is also pretty good, so he won't be forced to move to the outfield by his glove. He has a pretty interesting mix of tools and skills. He's blocked by Rickie Weeks, but he should be a good trade target or a fallback in case Weeks doesn't work out. At worst, he's Christian Guzman playing 60 feet closer to the first baseman. To me, he looks like a David Eckstein starter kit.

ETA: Late 2006
3 1/2 Stars

Predictions

2005-04-05T13:53:00.000-05:00

With the start of the season, I asked some friends of TYBITF to make some predictions.

Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing, reprinted.

AL East:
Boston
New York
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay

AL Central:
Minnesota
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Kansas City

AL West:
Oakland
"Los Angeles"
Seattle
Texas

NL East:
Philly
New York
Atlanta
Florida *I already regret this
Washington

NL Central:
St. Louis
Chicago
Houston
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Cincinnati

NL West:
San Diego
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Arizona
Colorado

AL Playoffs:
Boston Over Minnesota
Oakland Over NYY
Boston Over Oakland

NLDS:
St. Louis Over Philly
Chicago Over San Diego
Chicago Over St. Louis

World Series:
Boston Over Chicago

AL MVP:
Johan Santana

NL MVP:
Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young:
Johan Santana

NL Cy Young:
Ben Sheets

AL ROY:
Jeremy Reed

NL ROY:
Jeff Francis

Minor League Player of the Year:
Ian Stewart

Brad Dowdy of No Pepper

AL East
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees*
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays

AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals

AL West
Anaheim Angels
Oakland A's
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers

NL East
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins*
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies

AL Playoffs
Boston over Minnesota
Anaheim over New York
Boston over Anaheim

NL Playoffs
Atlanta over Los Angeles
St. Louis over Florida
Atlanta over St. Louis

World Series
Atlanta over Boston, 4-3

AL MVP
Manny Ramirez

AL Cy Young
Randy Johnson

AL ROY
Jeremy Reed

NL MVP
Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young
Pedro Martinez

NL ROY
Anthony Reyes

Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Chad Billingsley

Minor League Hitter of the Year
Delmon Young

Ryan Richards of the Indians Compendium

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL East
Boston
New York (WC)
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay

Ho hum. I threw in a bit of a twist, giving the Red Sox the division,
but both Boston and New York make the playoffs.

AL Central
Minnesota
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Kansas City

The Twins have too much pitching for the other teams to overcome.

AL West
Los Angeles
Texas
Oakland
Seattle

Texas didn't really build on their 2004 success with any meaningful
acquisitions beyond Richard Hidalgo, and if you take into account the
park effects of TBiA, didn't have a very good offense to begin with.
The Angels might run away with this division.

AL MVP
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Miguel Tejada.

AL CY YOUNG
Roy Halladay - yep, another limb.

AL ROY
Jeremy Reed

AL MOY
Mike Scioscia

NL East
Atlanta
Florida
Philadelphia
New York
Washington

I had a tough time picking 1-4 in this division. The Braves look like
the most well-rounded team, and how can you pick against them given
their history? The combination of Carlos Delgado, Miguel Cabrera, and
their rotation should keep the Marlins in contention for the Wild
Card, but the tougher schedule will hurt them.

NL Central
St. Louis
Chicago (WC)
Cincinnati
Houston
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh

As far as I'm concerned, this is a two-team race, contingent on the
health of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. The Astros offense took a huge
hit in the offseason, plus they won't have Lance Berkman for a while.
Will this be the year Ken Griffey Junior stays healthy? I'll say no,
but the Reds offense will still be potent, with Pena and Kearns
improving from a year ago.

NL West
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco
Arizona
Colorado

I'm going with the Dodgers almost by default. If I knew Barry Bonds
was completely healthy, I'd probably pick the Giants. The Rockies on
paper look like the worst team in baseball.

AL PLAYOFFS:
Boston over Minnesota
New York over Los Angeles
New York over Boston

NL PLAYOFFS:
Atlanta over Chicago
St. Louis over Los Angeles
St. Louis over Atlanta

WORLD SERIES
St. Louis over New York in 6

NL MVP
Albert Pujols. It's finally his year.

NL CY YOUNG
Pedro Martinez

NL ROY
Gavin Floyd

NL MOY
Jim Tracy

MINOR LEAGUE POY
Delmon Young

Dyehardfan from RoyalRevival

AL EAST
Boston
NY*
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay

AL CENTRAL
Minnesota
Cleveland
Chicago
Detroit
Kansas City

AL WEST
Oakland
Anaheim
Texas
Seattle

NL EAST
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
New York
Washington

NL CENTRAL
St. Louis
Chicago*
Houston
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Cincinnati

NL WEST
LA
San Diego
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado

World Series
Twins Over Cubs

AL MVP
Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young
Johan Santana

AL ROY
Ruben Gotay

NL MVP
Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young
Tim Hudson

NL ROY
Garrett Atkins

Random comments:

Hudson + Mazzone = lock
The Nationals are better than a 68 win team just not in that division.

The Cardinals will simply outscore everyone on the way to another division title

The NL West race may not be that close.. The Giants are projected for half a season of Barry.

I wanted to pick Morneau for MVP.

The White Sox may lose 100 games.. thats how much I hate what theyve done to their offense.

Seattle would win 85+ games if they played in the Central.

Texas is a maverick team.. but their pitching was both bad and lucky last year so I dont see any real improvement.

Oakland will have a disaster of a first half, only to rise up and steal the division away from the Los Angeles Angels of whatever.

Atkins is a pretty weak pick for NL ROY, but I dont see Francis putting up pretty numbers.. It will be a Rockie most likely.

My Picks

AL East
Boston
New York
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa

The Yankees are a troubling team. They have a great core, but quite a bit of it is aging fast and as the Diamondbacks and Orioles have proven in the past, the bottom tends to fall out of old teams far faster than the general public expects. If anybody from the Posada, Jeter, Sheffield group gets hurt for an extended period of time, their offense starts looking pretty ordinary. Bernie Williams is decaying before our eyes. Their defense is one of the 5 worst in baseball. And their bench is embarrassing. And I haven't even touched tea fact that this so-called juggernaut is honestly going to give Tino Martinez and Tony Womack 600+ plate appearances. And despite what the Baseball Tonight goons said last week, their pitching staff is not the best in a long time. It is instead a truly great, but old #1 starter, a merely good Mike Mussina, an old, fragile Kevin Brown, a slightly above average, overpaid Carl Pavano, and the ticking time-bomb known as Jaret Wright. The odds against Wright being a Yankee at this time next year have to be about the same as the chances of my being hired as the new PR director in the Bronx, which after this paragraph will be surely nil. The only scenario I can envision where he's on next year's roster is if they can't find a team to dump him on. It isn't like he has Javier Vazquez's track record of competence. Once you get past last year's flukey, Mazzone-inspired run, it's a whole lot of ugly.

AL Central
Minnesota
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
KC

Minnesota improved its team in the offseason by letting Guzman and Koskie go. Bartlett is a better player than Guzman at a fraction of the price. And while Koskie is a much better defensive third baseman than Cuddyer, he's also fragile and doesn't carry the offensive upside that Cuddyer does. The Twins also have nice bullpen, the best pitcher in baseball, and stealth MVP candidate Justin Morneau.

The more I look at the Tigers team, the more I like it. The opposite is true of the White Sox. And I think that my Royals will improve from last year if for no other reason than because the little moves I've liked should all add up. Don't get me wrong, there's still a long way to go, but last year's outfield was an abomination, the pitching staff was a huge mess, and they played Ken Harvey and Desi Relaford far too much. I like players like DeJesus, Gotay, and Buck. None of them are stars, but they won't be liabilities, and that's enough for a small boost. Look for around 70-75 wins.

AL West
Oakland
Anaheim
Texas
Seattle

I think Oakland will surprise a lot of mainstream fans and journalists. Their starting staff won't be as strong as it has been, but it will exceed expectations, and the improved offense and bullpen will counteract the gap between the 2004 and 2005 rotations. Also, barely anybody noticed that Oakland has put together possibly the best defensive squad in baseball.

I'm not calling the Angels LA-A or anything like that. I'm holding out.

NL East
Atlanta
Philly*
Florida
New York
Washington

Is there a more interesting race this year? If there is, I can't find it. There are certainly no knock-out teams that look like they can win 100 and take the pennant by storm, but there are 4 competent teams with strengths and weaknesses. The Cards are clearly the best team in the NL, but these guys run second through fifth. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished exactly the opposite of what I predict here.

NL Central
St Louis
Chicago
Milwaukee
Houston
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

The Cards are followed by a whole lot of mediocre. I'm picking the Cubs second, but if things in their rotation break the wrong way, they could slide down to the middle of this group. It will take a breakthrough from Corey Patterson and good health in the rotation to give the NL East foursome a real race for the wild card.

Milwaukee could surprise with an improved lineup and rotation with some potential. If they bring up Prince Fielder at midseason, it could get really, really interesting. I thought the missed out on an opportunity to capitalize on Lyle Overbay's career year by not trading him and filling the spot temporarily. There would have been some puzzled look in some corners, but Fielder is coming on fast, and nobody is under the delusion that this team is competing for a playoff spot this year. It keeps you from having to sort out a real logjam and it puts you in a position to sell high.

NL West
LA
San Diego
Arizona
San Fran
Colorado

This is an ugly division IMO. The Padres and Dodgers have some nice players, but I'm not in love with either team. The Giants without Barry Bonds are the Washington Nationals with more gray hair. The Snakes improved their team in the short term, but tied themselves to long term albatross deals in the all encompassing goal of getting to 75 wins. That doesn't exactly make my heart beat any faster. I will say though, that Jose Cruz was a great pickup and is horribly underrated. The Rockies are just marking time until Ian Stewart comes to town.

AL Playoffs
Minnesota Over Oakland
Boston Over Anaheim
Boston Over Minnesota

NL Playoffs
Atlanta Over LA
St Louis Over Philly
St Louis over Atlanta

World Series
Boston Over St Louis

AL MVP
Eric Chavez

AL Cy Young
Johan Santana

AL ROY
Jeremy Reed

NL MVP
Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young
Jake Peavy

NL ROY
J.J. Hardy

Minor League Player of the Year
Daric Barton

Game on!

Jason Bourgeois Report

2005-04-04T07:52:00.000-05:00

Jason Bourgeois, 2B, Atlanta Braves
Drafted 56th Overall (2nd Rd), 2000 Draft, HS, Houston, TX
Bats B/Throws R
23 YO, 5'9", 185 lbs

2004 was a lost year for Bourgeois, who failed to show that his .329/.416/.473 half season in the California League in 2003 was anything more than a hot streak punctuated by park factors. He's a speedy guy who doesn't really try to hit the ball deep. At his best, he's Joey Gathright with an infield glove. At his worst, he's a generic speedy infielder.

2004 Frisco: .256/.315/.330, 19 2B, 7 3B, 2 HR, 44 BB, 81 K, 30 SB, 10 CS, 530 AB
mL Career: .271/.341/.377, 84 2B, 21 3B, 25 HR, 178 BB, 291 K, 102 SB, 26 CS, 1897 AB

He's a very effective baserunner and he's no stiff on defense, so even if he doesn't hit, he still has a small chance of catching on as a utility player. However, a lot of teams demand that a player with his skill set also be able to play a credible shortstop in order to earn a job on their bench.

For the most part, I think the Bourgeois of 2004 is the real one. He's only had 2 samples where he's looked like a real hitter, one was in the friendly confines of the California League and the other was in 2001 in short season ball. He could surprise us and turn back into a legit 3 1/2 star prospect, but I wouldn't put any of my own money on that. The Braves will give him a shot as they claimed him off waivers from the Ranger, who clearly lost their patience.

ETA: Late 2005/Early 2006
1 1/2 Stars

No Posting this Weekend

2005-04-02T10:23:00.000-05:00

Sorry. No prospect reports or analysis. I have a fantasy draft in the Louisville area tomorrow and due to a very budy week at work, I don't have the typical backlog of prospect reports ready to post through the weekend.

I'll be back on monday with prospects and more.

Calvin Pickering /Ken Harvey Postmortem

2005-03-31T19:07:00.000-05:00

As a Royals fan, and as a long time Calvin Pickering advocate, I was overjoyed to hear that he was given a spot on the Royals opening day roster. It's been well covered by friend of TYBITF Kevin Agee, but given my own history with the issue, I feel like I need to give it my own spin. So without further ado, here's a report. I know I'm traveling pretty far afield with the concept of a prospect report since neither player meets the true definition of the term prospect. But as with John Buck, Alexis Rios, and Tim Redding, bear with me.

Calvin Pickering, 1B/DH, Kansas City Royals
Drafted 976th Overall (35th Rd), 1995 Draft, HS, Tampa, FL
Bats L/Throws L
28 YO, 6'5", 295 lbs

Big Cal is huge, lefty slugger who reached the majors with a cup of coffee days before his 23rd birthday. Even while they were promoting him, the O's had serious concerns about his weight and defense, which prompted them to send him back to Rochester in 1999 and in 2000 before eventually getting frustrated with him and placing him on waivers and sending him to Cincinnati. He had injury problems in 2001 and 2002 before emerging in the Mexican League, where as usual he crushed fastballs and hanging curves. This caught the attention of Allard Baird, who signed him up to be Omaha's first baseman in 2004.

2004 Omaha: .314/.451/.712, 12 2B, 35 HR, 70 BB, 85 K, 299 AB
2004 Kansas City: .246/.338/.500, 8 2B, 7 HR, 18 BB, 42 K, 122 AB
mL Career: .303/.407/.558, 128 2B, 138 HR, 367 BB, 617 K, 2162 AB

All hail the master of the three true outcomes! In that Omaha sample, he has 190 HR+BB+K, almost 65% of his at bats. In KC, that figure went down to a mere 55%. He really only does 3 things, walk, strikeout, and hit home runs. Anything else is for those little guys. A lot of people have a big problem with this kind of player because of the strikeouts. I think that's pretty shortsighted. You don't want to try a hit and run with him at the plate, but why would you want to use smallball techniques with a power hitter anyways? If there's anybody who can drive a runner in from third, wouldn't it be this guy?

His defense is about what you'd expect from a guy with a long injury history and an extreme lack of speed. With the glove, his upside is Frank Thomas. On offense, you always hear things like "Poor man's David Ortiz" or the obligatory Ken Phelps reference. All of these have some merit. BP's PECOTA forecasts a flattering .272/.400/.543. The Royals would be overjoyed with that result, as would I.

ETA: N/A
4 Stars

Ken Harvey, 1B, Kansas City Royals
Drafted 151st Overall (5th Rd), 1999 Draft, Nebraska
Bats R/Throws R
27 YO, 6'2", 240 lbs

Harvey started hitting as soon as he signed his first pro contract and was in Kansas City 2 years after he was selected in the 1999 draft. He lit up the Arizona Fall League and forced his way into the 1B/DH picture alongside Mike Sweeney.

The problem is that for a guy this big, he doesn't hit for much power. He also doesn't draw as many walks as somebody like me is likely to demand. Lastly, he has a history of struggling against right handed pitching.

2004 Kansas City: .287/.338/.421, 20 2B, 13 HR, 28 BB, 89 K, 456 AB
mL Career: .328/.384/.510, 86 2B, 47 HR, 110 BB, 227 K, 1307 AB
ML Career: .276/.324/.413, 51 2B, 26 HR, 57 BB, 187 K, 953 AB

You can see the problem pretty easily. Much of his value is tied up in batting average. When that drops down a bit, he becomes a poor asset as a first baseman.

Harvey definitely has his uses. He's good defensively at first base. And he kills left handed pitching. Seems like a Harvey/Pickering platoon would be an almost ideal solution. However, if only given 1 roster spot, the Royals made the right choice.

ETA: N/A
3 Stars

So here's where we stand. Harvey is with Omaha while Pickering is penciled in as the Royals DH. Should Harvey paste PCL pitching while Pickering slumps, they may switch places. If Pickering hits the ground running, you may not hear much of Harvey from here on out.

Ramon Nivar Report

2005-03-31T10:12:00.000-05:00

Ramon Nivar, 2B/OF, Baltimore Orioles
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1998, Dominican Republic
Bats R/Throws R
25 YO, 5'10", 170 lbs

The Orioles traded away Jerry Hairston in the Sammy Sosa deal, but they may have found a player who can play the same kind of role when they acquired Nivar from the Rangers for Matt Riley, who they had finally had enough of.

Nivar is similar in that he's a second baseman who was thrown into the outfield. He's different because he's actually seen as a future utility player right away whereas Hairston was seen as a potential starter and only started playing the outfield when Brian Roberts outplayed him and took the job.

2004 Oklahoma: .264/.290/.374, 21 2B, 10 HR, 14 BB, 43 K, 15 SB, 14 CS, 462 AB
2004 Texas: .222/.211/.222, 0 2B, 0 HR, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 SB, 1 CS, 18 AB
mL Career: .293/.332/.397, 129 2B, 18 3B, 33 HR, 123 BB, 260 K, 120 SB, 2545 AB

His plate discipline is erratic at best, cratering in 2004. He has a little pop, but not nearly enough to counteract the way that his walk rate would cause him to be an absolute anchor tied to the team's OBP. He's a burner, but he gets caught stealing almost as often as he is successful. And while he's good defensively, he's neither the flycatcher in center that you'd expect him to be, or the rangy second baseman that you'd imagine. To put it generally, he's a talented athlete who still has a lot to learn about playing baseball. He's Alex Sanchez with the ability to play second base. If he can catch on just a little bit with the plate discipline and get better reads on the pitcher when he's on the basepaths, he can be a useful utility player. If he doesn't develop those skills, he'll remain a career minor leaguer who gets an occasional callup when things get desperate.

ETA: Late 2005
2 Stars

Gabe Gross Report

2005-03-30T10:12:00.000-05:00

Gabe Gross, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Drafted 15th Overall, 2001 Draft, Auburn
Bats L/Throws R
25 YO, 6'3", 210 lbs

Gross is thumping Grapefruit League pitching and forcing his way past Frank Catalanatto and Reed Johnson in the quest to be the Jays starting left fielder. It's a nice development. I don't believe the power spike is anything more than a sample size fluke, but at this point he doesn't have anything left to prove in the Syracuse. He also has more of a future than Cat or Johnson, so it would be wise of them to give Gross 500 at bats at the expense of the veterans.

2004 Syracuse: .294/.381/.454, 29 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 53 BB, 81 K, 377 AB
2004 Toronto: .209/.311/.310, 4 2B, 3 HR, 19 BB, 31 K, 129 AB
mL Career: .279/.381/.444, 95 2B, 14 3B, 38 HR, 221 BB, 302 K, 1439 AB

He's 25, he has over 1400 minor league at bats under his belt. He has some on base skills. He isn't going to hit a ton of home runs, but he's at least a league average left fielder on a team that has used a platoon at the position for the last couple years. He's already better than both of these guys, and he's only going to improve over the next few years.

He's limited on the basepaths and in the field. He's no threat to steal bases, as he has below average speed and unipressive instincts when it comes to chosing his opportunities. In his minor league career, he's taken only 20 bases by theft, and he's been caught 13 times, meaning he probably shouldn't even try unless the catcher has two broken arms and is under the influence of several halucinogenic drugs. In the field, he won't embarrass himself or his team, but his range is limited and his arm is average at best. These two weaknesses are mitigated by the Jays themselves. he won't be expected to steal bases since the Jays play pretty close to the vest in the running game. He also looks to be sharing the outfield with the rangy pair of Vernon Wells and Alexis Rios.

Gross is a good example of what a friend of mine used to call the Sid Bream test. He used to say that if Sid Bream is your 4th outfielder, you're probably looking at a pretty damned good team. However, if Sid Bream is your best outfielder, you're in deep shit. In reality, most teams will just sit him in left for 150 games a year and toss him in at the 6 or 7 spot in the lineup.

ETA: Early 2005
3 1/2 Stars

Redding/Quintero Trade Analysis and Player Reports

2005-03-29T17:43:00.000-05:00

This is a nice little low risk, moderate reward kind of deal. The Astros are really thin at catcher after trading John Buck to the Royals in the Beltran deal. They're still shackling themselves to Brad Ausmus, much to the relief of their division rivals. Meanwhile, the Padres have the very serviceable Ramon Hernandez.

Quintero is more prospecty of the two, so we'll tackle him first.

Humberto Quintero, C, Houston Astros
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1997, Venezuela
Bats R/Throws R
25 YO, 5'10", 200 lbs

Quintero is a backup catcher straight out of central casting. He's outstanding defensively with great footwork, outstanding hands, good technique, and a howitzer for an arm. He's also a below average bat with the ability to put the ball in play, but rarely hit it with any authority.

2004 Portland: .317/.348/.471, 25 2B, 5 HR, 8 BB, 18 K, 259 AB
2004 San Diego: .250/.295/.375, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 BB, 16 K, 72 AB
mL Career: .268/.314/.342, 96 2B, 8 3B, 10 HR, 88 BB, 218 K, 1927 AB

He's hit pretty well in the PCL the last couple years, but he still demonstrated very little power and absolutely no ability to draw a walk. At the plate, the vast majority of his value is in batting average, so if he doesn't hit .280, he's a crippling liability to the lineup. Still, the Astros are used to carrying around an offensive millstone at catcher, so they're not likely to really know what they're missing.

In a way, Quintero is to Ausmus as Yadier Molina is to Mike Matheney. Quintero has the same strengths and weaknesses as his veteran counterpart. He's likely to have a similar career, being a baserunner's worst nightmare while posing little threat to opposing pitchers.

ETA: Early 2005
2 1/2 Stars

Tim Redding, RHP, San Diego Padres
Drafted 610th Overall (20th Rd), 1997, Monroe Community College
Bats R/Throws R
27 YO, 6'0", 200 lbs

For analysis purposes, we'll treat Redding like a prospect and do a full report. It's been a long, long time since Redding broke out in 2000.

2004 New Orleans: 6.04 ERA, 26 K, 12 BB, 30 H, 2 HR, 28 IP
2004 Houston: 5.72 ERA, 56 K, 43 BB, 125 H, 15 HR, 100 IP
mL Career: 3.79 ERA, 665 K, 274 BB, 420 H, 8 HR, 554 IP
MLB Career: 4.75 ERA, 290 K, 167 BB, 444 H, 52 HR, 405 IP

He still throws a low 90's fastball with a couple of breaking pitches, and can be very effective when he's on. However, he hasn't been on his game very often of late and he needed a change of scenery in the worst way. His command is completely shot. He isn't missing bats like he once did. And when batters get a hold of one, it goes over the fence pretty regularly.

One thing I don't tend to have the advantage of is conclusive sample sizes. That certainly isn't the case here, with almost 1000 professional innings. Some of those numbers stand out. In particular, there's the difference in home run rates between the minors and with Houston. That's misleading though since Redding has spent an inordinate amount of time in New Orleans, as well as the Florida State League while his time in the big leagues has been exclusively with Houston, who everybody knows plays in a park with cozy dimensions.

Everything about Redding's numbers has shown a steep decline. The last good year he had was his 2003 campaign in Houston, where he posted a strong ERA, but pedestrian peripherals. His walk rate was better than in any other, but his strikeout rate was an anemic 5.93 per 9 innings.

For now, I'm going to come to the conclusion that Redding is a live arm and little else. I don't know if the problems he's experienced are a result of an injury or a mechanical flaw. I also don't know if the Padres will be able to figure it out. If they do, they could end up with a nice pitcher. It's worth a shot when all you're giving up is an all-leather, no-lumber catcher.

ETA: N/A
2 Stars

Matt Diaz Report

2005-03-29T13:23:00.000-05:00

Matt Diaz, OF, Kansas City Royals
Drafted 505th Overall (17th Rd), 1999 Draft, Florida State
Bats R/Throws R
27 YO, 6'1", 206 lbs

Diaz is a hitter, plain and simple. He's not young, and he's not going to be a star, but he's another example of the Royals taking free talent where they can find it, just like with Cal Pickering and Jamie Cerda.

2004 Durham: .332/.377/.571, 47 2B, 5 3B, 21 HR, 26 BB, 96 K, 13 HBP, 15 SB, 4 CS, 503 AB
2004 Tampa: .190/.292/.476, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 HBP, 21 AB
mL Career: .309/.357/.475, 190 2B, 16 3B, 68 HR, 136 BB, 407 K, 80 SB, 30 CS, 2556 AB

So let's recount what he can do. He can make contact, drive the ball for extra bases, he leans in and takes one for the team more than most, and he even has some speed to his game, though a dozen or two stolen bases really aren't going to make much of a difference to a team's won/loss record. What it seems like he can't do is post an acceptable walk rate.

As a Royals fan, he really reminds me of Mark Quinn in his style and abilities (and limitations). Baseball Prospectus projects a .281/.331/.458 line through their PECOTA projection system, which sounds pretty reasonable. It also isn't too far off Quinn's .294/.342/.484 line in 2000, which earned him a second place in the AL Rookie of the Year race. It would also be a huge upgrade from what the Royals got out of RF last season. As long as he doesn't have the self-destructive habits of the Mighty Quinn, Diaz should stick around longer as well.

Oh yeah, Diaz is also a decent right fielder. He's nothing special out there, but's no butcher.

All in all Diaz is decent player who, like some of the other late bloomers we've reviewed, will be a competent everyday player or a good bench bat. Because he's breaking in late, he's unlikely to have a long career. But he cost the Royals nothing to acquire, and he's not holding back any elite prospects. Standard operating procedure is to pick them up, give them a chance, hope that they make something of themselves, and flip them for something you need before they get expensive. It's a plan that worked great for the Mariners with Ken Phelps. Even if they fail miserably, you didn't spend millions of dollars on them, and SOMEBODY has to play in Omaha.

Diaz did not play well in spring training and was sent to Omaha's camp this weekend. Emil Brown seems to have won a job, but his performance history tells us that he probably will not live up to the expectations his smoking hot spring has generated. If Diaz continues to pound AAA pitchers, he could find himself with that chance, even if he didn't win the job in spring training.

ETA: Opening Day
3 Stars

Jae-Kuk Ryu Report

2005-03-28T04:10:00.000-05:00

Jae-Kuk Ryu, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 2001, South Korea
Bats R/Throws R
22 YO, 6'3", 210 lbs

The sworn enemy of ospreys everywhere spent 2004 as a reliever. He still has good stuff. Unfortunately he's picked up some back and elbow problems along the way, and he's still likely a walking, talking example of premise that you don't have to be smart to be a decent baseball player. He primarily works with a low 90's fastball, but he also mixes in some good breaking stuff and a promising changeup.

2004 Boise: 2.57 ERA, 7 K, 5 BB, 7 H, 7 IP
2004 West Tenn: 2.95 ERA, 19 K, 10 BB, 22 H, 18 IP
mL Career: 3.55 ERA, 247 K, 109 BB, 249 H, 9 HR, 263 IP

His elbow problems limited to tendonitis, and there was no reported structural damage or anything that required surgery. It kept him out of action for most of the season, and probably was the root cause of his control issues, which were never a big problem earlier in his career. If he gets healthy and doesn't do anything monumentally stupid (like killing any more protected species), he has a chance to be very good reliever, or possibly return to being a good starting pitcher. He has the arsenal of a mid-rotation starter, or a very polished reliever. However, he has to actually stay healthy and not demonstrate a complete lack of common sense. He'll be back with the Diamond Jaxx to start the season.

ETA: 2007
2 1/2 Stars

Eude Brito Report

2005-03-27T04:50:00.000-05:00

Eude Brito, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1998, Dominican Republic
Bats L/Throws L
26 YO, 5'11", 160 lbs

I love the name, I love the radar gun readings, I don't love the control. Brito is a lefty with a mid 90's heater and a decent breaking ball.

2004 Reading: 4.42 ERA, 84 K, 41 BB, 95 H, 10 HR, 98 IP
mL Career: 3.78 ERA, 310 K, 143 BB, 345 H, 27 HR, 374 IP

He's on the Phillies 40 man roster, but he'll start the season in Wilkes-Barre, trying to harness his stuff. He could be deadly if he just could improve his control a little bit. When you're a lefty with that much gas, you don't have to be Zach Greinke to be effective, you just have to get it reasonably close.

I'm fairly pessimistic about his chances since he is closing in on his late 20's. It's always a possibility that a pitcher of any age will change a grip on a pitch, learn a new pitch, or make a mechanical tweak that ends up completely changing his career. That likelihood goes progressively down as that pitcher gets older. If Brito doesn't clean up his command, then he has a career as a standard issue AAA reliever ahead of him. If he does clean up the control, he could be a pretty good major leaguer not confined to the drudgery of life as a LOOGY.

ETA: 2006
2 1/2 Stars

Yhency Brazoban Report

2005-03-27T04:42:00.000-05:00

Yhency Brazoban, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent, 1997, Dominican Republic
Bats R/Throws R
24 YO, 6'1", 170 lbs

Brazoban is Jesse Crain with a more interesting backstory. While Crain is a polished college reliever who has followed the exact career path that the Twins laid out for him when he was drafted, Brazoban was signed as an outfielder, moved to the mound after 4 1/2 subpar seasons with the bat, and then exploded on the scene from out of nowhere to become one of the better young relievers in baseball after being included in the Kevin Brown/Jeff Weaver trade as a throw-in.

Like Crain, he has a booming mid 90's fastball and a good slider. Like Crain, he's pegged as the setup man for a lights-out closer in 2004 with designs on replacing him when he gets really expensive. If you're in a league that counts holds as a category, and I'm in one that does, both would be a wise investment in this year's draft.

2004 Jacksonville: 2.65 ERA, 61 K, 22 BB, 38 H, 4 HR, 51 IP
2004 Las Vegas: 2.19 ERA, 17 K, 1 BB, 14 H, 1 HR, 12 IP
2004 Los Angeles: 2.48 ERA, 27 K, 15 BB, 25 H, 2 HR, 33 IP
mL Career: 3.92 ERA, 147 K, 54 BB, 120 H, 10 HR, 129 IP

Where Crain and Brazoban diverge is with control. Brazoban's walk rate is a bit higher than I like, though his strikeout and hit rates make up for it and keep him well within the bounds of what anybody would regard as effective. As with Crain, as long as he stays healthy and nothing weird happens, he should be a name that you hear a lot of in the next 10 years. If the Dodgers ever feel like cutting costs, they could push Gagne out the door and still have a very capable closer. Of course that would force them to look for another 7th/8th inning fireman, but this is why you employ a general manager.

ETA: Opening Day
4 Stars

Jeff Miller Report

2005-03-26T12:53:00.000-05:00

Jeff Miller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Drafted 444th Overall (15th Rd), 2001 Draft, University of New Orleans
Bats R/Throws R
25 YO, 6'4", 230 lbs

Miller is a reliever prospect who had a breakout 2004 season in the Eastern League. He's another fastball/slider power reliever who pounds the strikezone. The velocity on his heater is only in the low 90's, but he has good control over it and mixes it well with his breaking ball. The command and approach is a bit surprising since he was primarily an outfielder in college, and may I add, a pretty decent one as he hit .338/.427/.502 in 2001 for the alma mater or the OTHER Ervin Johnson.

2004 Altoona: 2.91 ERA, 79 K, 28 BB, 48 H, 8 HR, 68 IP
mL Career: 3.62 ERA, 241 K, 86 BB, 254 H, 23 HR, 271 IP

He's currently on the 40 man roster, though he'll spend a considerable amount of time here in Indy this season. If he can repeat the success of 2004, he stands a great chance of ending the season in Western Pennsylvania. He missed the start of the 2003 season with a shoulder problem, but there haven't been any reports of further problems. All in all, he's an overlooked prospect, but a good one. He also is in an organization that is likely to produce an opportunity if he continues to perform.

ETA: Late 2005
3 1/2 Stars